Monday
Feb062017
by 
Josh
Josh ClimateGate 2.0?
Feb 6, 2017 Climate: Curry David Rose GWPF Josh Just about everywhere.
Story at Judy Curry's, Mail on Sunday, GWPF, WUWT,and Twitter of course.
Update on Feb 6, 2017 by
Josh
Josh
Response to critiques: Climate scientists versus climate data by Judy Curry.
Instability of GHCN adjustment algorithm by Paul Matthews.
Science: One Damned Adjustment After Another? by Geoff Chambers
Reader Comments (270)
Then he is perfect for the RS!
Regards
Mailman
Feb 15, 2017 at 12:56 PM | Mailman, exactly, I trust my NHS Haematology Team. They have a proven track record. I can see their results on a spreadsheet showing numbers going up and/or down in response to treatment, and I can sense and/or feel improvements, even if there is nothing to actually see.
Climate Science has told the world to be fearful of a problem that no one else has noticed, or complained about, based on dubious statistics produced from dubious data, carefully adjusted, with errors always (magically) in favour of their diagnosis.
Unlike Bankers in Monopoly, Climate Scientists NEVER make errors in someone else's favour, unless there is money in it for them.
Happer said he began to question the emerging consensus view on climate change while working as director of research at the Department of Energy as part of the George W Bush administration. Climate scientists would “grudgingly” present their work to administrators, he claims, while those in other fields would share their results with enthusiasm. “I would ask questions but they were evasive and wouldn’t answer,” he said. “This experience really soured me on the community. I started reading up and I realised why they weren’t answering the questions: because they didn’t have good answers. It was really at that point that I began to get seriously worried about climate as a science.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/15/trump-science-adviser-william-happer-climate-change-cult
Cheap shot Mailman and golfCharlie. I have had the privilege and great pleasure of working with several FRSs.
Once again there is this kneejerk response of damning anything that has a connection with climate change, regardless of its intrinsic value. It is a vivid illustration of how much damage is being done to science as a whole by he climate charlatans.
Yes, Alan, we have witnessed a triumph of narrative over nature in climate science. The lessons will be learned by other branches of science. May nature regain its dominance before narrative overcomes all.
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husq@, you omitted the best part of that Guardian article: the title.
I'm amazed they even quoted him saying that. Perhaps they are attempting to stem the flood of readers exiting via a damaged spillway, lest their whole dam might perish.
Phil Clarke's
Glass is dark.
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Interestingly the Karl paper has now been refuted by Peter Stott at the MO and this paper that was written a year ago here
Feb 15, 2017 at 3:40 PM | Supertroll
You will be aware that I have suggested to advocates of Climate Science that they try to save the good bits, because otherwise it is all going to get trashed. As a country bumpkin, yottie etc, I am grateful for the improved accuracy of 5 (7?) day weather forecasts, and would love to see that increased to 10-14 days. Unfortunately, all the money is being spent on TRYING TO FIND EVIDENCE, to support Global Warming theory, and giving maximum publicity to "bad weather events" from around the world, if there is good footage, and a chance to portray that as reasons to be fearful of more Global Warming.
The "Cheapshots" are being taken by those in editorial control of BBC and Met Office broadcast output. The biggest storm to hit Southern England in living memory was 15/16th October 1987, and the biggest drought, summer 1976. These Inconvenient Truths cannot be admitted, and as home video does not exist, those under 30- 35(?) probably don't know anything about them.
The "Cheapshots" are being taken by those blaming every drought, hurricane etc on Global Warming. Hurricane Katrina was a "Wake-Up" call for the USA, whereas the lack of maintenance etc to levees was not. The Syrian famine was a "Wake-Up" call about Global Warming but the Somali/Ethiopian drought of 1984 was not.
Despite what is now claimed, Mann's Hockey Stick WAS presented as a forecast, of what was to come, unless we all took knee-jerk reactions.
I don't really mind flakey ideas. I don't get upset by astrology, homeopathy, scientology,
religious persons walking up and down the high street wearing 'the end is nigh' sandwich boards.
Hey , they may even be right, I don't know.
But until they are proven right, and live by their own standards, they have no place in public policy.
Feb 15, 2017 at 11:33 PM | EternalOptimist
IPCC formats required Climate Scientists to express their confidence/certainty about their predictions. As they have been wrong, how did they calculate their confidence?
I DID trust Mann's Hockey Stick, the UN and the world of Science. Supertroll is correct, confidence in all science has been damaged, by the drive to prove a predetermined conclusion. Climate Science has proved itself incapable of self-correction.
Mann's Hockey Stick, Gergis (twice), Karl 2015 and the 97% Consensus, can be used to judge Climate Scientists on their professional skill and integrity, and whether they are worthy of funding by taxpayers.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/02/14/climate-activists-final-act-as-they-move-into-the-last-stage-of-grief/
This Komedy of Karlization prompted me to take a trip down my blog memory lane - and I thought I would share some of my findings.
The first thing I had noted - and from which I have not observed any resiling - was that in late July, 2013, the "jewel in the crown, of British and global science ", aka the UK Met Office, had finally decided to acknowledge "the pause":
But, as Dr. Judith Curry had observed on the release of these papers, the Met Office appeared to keep the door open for "correction":
To my mind this milquetoasty acknowledgement of "the pause", seemed to be somewhat at odds with the Nov. 2012 declaration by Christiana (aka Tinkerbell) Figueres' UNFCCC head honcho predecessor, Yvo de Boer's depiction down-under:
Not surprisingly, at least one of the two IPCC "parents", the WMO was not particularly happy with the perambulations from the Met Office. And quite possibly wanted to reinforce de Boer's depiction. Soooo ... In March 2014 the soon to be retired* (and/or smooth-moved onto another platform) WMO head honcho, Michel Jarraud, declared not only that "Climate change is not stopping", but also - and no doubt most importantly (perhaps slamming the door on the Met Office while inter alia opening the door for Karl et al's 2014?!) - "There.Is.No.Pause.".
And Jarraud was bolstered in this devastating conclusion by none other than WGII Co-Chair, Chris Field. See my NEWSFLASH: “Climate change is not stopping”, says WMO chief as well as my comment - thanks to a reading of the Awesome Alex Cull's transcript of the two-step performances of Jarraud and Field.
* For a laugh and a half, see this Dec. 2015 mid-COP Jarraud swan song interview via the Carbon Brief. As well as their July 2015 summary of NOAA's "State of the Climate" report, according to which no fewer than "seven records were broken".
And to think that after all this "work", the very best they were able to achieve was some over-hyped non-binding "targets" - and, of course, an agreement to continue draining world-wide coffers by agreeing to meet again.
Amazing, eh?!
Hilary and kim. :)
Heh, 'what's behind the green door?'
Hilary Ostrov & Beth Cooper
how should we measure/confirm Peak Climate Science? I am not sure anybody should trust Climate Scientists to be honest about their preferred method of measuring anything.
Heh, it's the Chinese hoaxing, but they ain't no longer got that schwing. Now let me tell you about a little place the serfs dance at.
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At the Folkloriko Ballet, kim. ''Dark Eyes.'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtbfFowu000
Re
Phil Clarke's
Glass is dark,
... Einstein
on the beach?
Golf Charlie,
Surely we would have gotten improved 5 day forecasts regardless of Mann Made Global Warming (tm) AND most likely those improved forecasting methods most likely COULD have been delivered sooner if we hadn't literally p1ssed hundreds of billions of dollars in to the literal wind of climate scientology!!!
And herein lies one of the many tragedies of Mann Made Global Warming (tm), how many lives could have been saved if all that money p1ssed away on climate science had actually been used for the benefit of the people of this country instead of to benefit the pockets of a select few.
Mailman
GOLF CHARLIE 15 FEBRUARY :
"Karl 2015 ... can be used to judge Climate Scientists on their professional skill and integrity, and whether they are worthy of funding by taxpayers."
AP FEBRUARY 16
"Bates said in an interview Monday with The Associated Press ... Karl didn't follow the more than 20 crucial data storage and handling steps that Bates created ...
However Bates, who acknowledges that Earth is warming from man-made carbon dioxide emissions, said in the interview that there was "no data tampering, no data changing, nothing malicious."
"It's really a story of not disclosing what you did," Bates said in the interview. "It's not trumped up data in any way shape or form."
Do show some compassion, Russell. That thrilling period of frisson that occurs between a new David Rose BOMBSHELL and its inevitable debunking and walking back grows ever shorter. One should not intrude on private grief.
But we could have a side-bet on which comes first; an ice-free Arctic or Climategate 5?
Phil I'm willing to bet with you £100 that Arctic ice cover does not fall below 2 Wadhams this summer.
Put your money where your mouth is.
vvussell & Phil Clarke, no one has noticed any Global Warming.
Trump has also noticed that he is not the only one who has noticed the absence of Global Warming.
Climate Scientists are welcome to continue fiddling with their computer models for as long as they like, but not at Taxpayer's expense.
If you are as confident about Karl as you were about Gergis, why should anyone trust your opinions? Or indeed those of anyone who remains confident in Mann's Hockey Stick and SKeptical Science's fabricated Consensus? If 97% of Climate Scientists are wrong, Trump can cut budgets by 97% and improve Climate Science's accuracy, honesty and integrity.
Why do you think Taxpayers should keep funding failures, that can not identify or correct their own mistakes? Personally, I don't.
https://cliscep.com/2017/02/15/lamar-smith-gets-tough-with-noaa/
Lamar Smith has asked for NOAA correspondence by 28th Feb to confirm what they were doing. This will allow Karl to clear his name if vvussell and Phil Clarke are to be believed.
Unfortunately, vvussell, Phil Clarke and 97% of Climate Scientists are unbelievable, if the track record of the same 97% of Climate Scientists is anything to go by.
If NOAA don't comply with Lamar Smith's requests this time, concerning Karl 2015, POTUS will not turn a blind eye, and apparently there are more whistleblowers.
US Prisons could be the first to have their own Climate Science classes, which may prove popular with con artists and fraudsters.
golfCharlie. You are somewhat off-piste when you wrote:
"vvussell & Phil Clarke, no one has noticed any Global Warming."
Decade by decade during the last two centuries, observant humans, but certainly season-dependent animals and plants have reacted to an intermittent warming trend in many parts of the world. This is climate change and it is real. Whether it's going to continue is another matter. The runes don't look favourable.
Supertroll, I would be the first to admit that the Climate Changes, as identified by Hubert Lamb of CRU, and known about by historians, geographers, scientists, religious scholars etc, and probably by Geologists aswell. I also agree that it has not got quite as cold in winter, in my lifetime.
The idea of Global Warming, and Manns 'Hockey Stick being a representation of past climate, let alone a predictive tool for the future is a fantasy, but 97% of Climate Scientists won't admit that, let alone the existence of the MWP and LIA.
As they have backed themselves into a dogmatic corner of their own fabrication, they should be allowed to stay there, wear their dunce's caps, and have taxpayer funding withdrawn.
Disciples of Malthus, Paul R Ehrlich etc, might suggest that the existence of their Selfish Genes should be terminated, for the betterment of mankind, and the planet, much as they have advocated for those they disagree with.
Phil Clarke said: "But we could have a side-bet on which comes first; an ice-free Arctic or Climategate 5?" You mean this sort of ice free Arctic ......
"A year ago US scientists caused alarm when they predicted the Arctic Ocean could be free of summer ice by 2030 but now researchers say those estimates were far too conservative. A US-based team has told a conference in California that the northern polar waters could be ice-free in summer by 2013." ABC (Australia)
"An analysis by Cambridge University has concluded that the Arctic is now melting at such a rate that it will be largely ice free within ten years, allowing ships to cross the Arctic Ocean." The Telegraph, 15 Oct 2009
"North Pole Could Be Ice Free in 2008. This year, for the first time, Arctic scientists are preparing for that possibility. The set-up for this summer is disturbing,” says Mark Serreze, of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)." ABC News (US), 27 Apr 2008
I think I should place on record the fact that I have never tampered with any temperature data.
Therefore: all the temperature data used in climate research must be a true record.
Is that clear now?
meanwhile...arctic ice is up, Antarctic ice is up , Polar bears are up.
Why don't you rise up Phil ? Do a Blair and save the air
Who needs ClimateGate 5? I've little doubt that even more horrifying stories will come out about the politicization of climate science, but the first edition did the trick, that ever festering boil, still converting the cognizant.
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Serfs up!
======
Polar bears are up?
Ours has remained perfectly supine since grandfather deposited it on the nursery floor on his return from Alaska in 1924.
A well-regulated militia being necessary for the preservation of polar bears, the use of firearms around said species will be limited to self-defense.
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My prediction, and I am willing to make a bet of £1000 , is that the 'Clarkian' index will fall below 2 before the 'Whadhams' falls below that level.
A Clarkian being a logarithmic scale where the first defence of a ridiculous Alarmist statement carries some weight, but the 100th defence, like 'the greens had nothing to do with the demise of DDT' carries less weight than a molecule of hydrogen.
My logic behind this.. Clarke has realised the game is up. He will/has moved on to the next big greenie mantra.
CAGW is finished.
kim & EternalOptimist, I am worried about a plague of Polar Bears, especially if they form themselves into an armed militia, seeking revenge on all the scientists that kept shooting them in the bum for scientific purposes with dart guns. Wadham will no doubt come out with a totally irrational conspiracy theory, in order to attract more publicity for something else he has not properly thought out.
kim, non -pareil, if yer serfin'
at this moment, CE's open
fer yer comment,(vorpal yet
delightful) blend of Ariel
and Volt-aire.
(...See me pome there, I don't
mind it, (always wrote fer u and Max. )
)
Good vibrations prove their worth,
but Polar bears do not surf.
Brian Wilson: treat with mirth
Oh "till I die" and greet the earth
Here's what I tried to put just below yours:
The sun, the tides, internal combobulations;
We're down to three, congratulations.
======================
Feb 18, 2017 at 11:46 AM | Supertroll
Just because you have not seen Polar Bears surfing off the beaches of Hawaii, California or Cornwall, doesn't mean they can't. Who knows what Polar Bears might be able to do or achieve if given Equality of Access? Their white coats should prove ideal for preventing sunburn whilst lounging on the beaches, and seal flavoured ice creams could prove very popular. Manufacturers of surfboards might have to develop more claw resistant and non-slip finishes though.
Just goes to show how errors can be profitable!
Humble French restaurant swamped after Michelin mistake makes it a star.
https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/feb/18/humble-french-restaurant-swamped-after-michelin-mistake-makes-it-a-star
A well-regulated polarbeariat being necessary to the Corbyn defense , the Lord Mayor may distribute pole arms to chastise demonstrators in ploar bear suits at his discretion.
vvussell, if you think that the surplus Polar Bears will defend Corbyn, he will be pleasantly surprised, as not many of his MPs do. As he was a supporter of the National Union of Mineworkers during the infamous strike of the early 1980s, I am not convinced that he is fully supportive of a Low Carbon economy either.
That is what happens when Scientivists and Politics mix. Obviously Jeremy can (does?) speak to his brother Piers, for advice on Climate Science, and how it has failed science, and traditional Labour voters in the UK.
Say, kim, shall I have a go with yr couplet?
Feb 18, 2017 at 10:37 PM | Beth Cooper
'Ave you finished wif me doublet?
Please and thanks. Much gracious. Javier is fun isn't he?
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Yes kim, and honorerd to post.
golf charlie, fun here too. )
Thanks for XXXXIV. The Early Bird has found the worm. In a seven word nutshell, her words: 'Neuro-psychological engineering for a collectivist political purpose.
She once told me she didn't know if she was writing an expose or an autopsy. I told her to read 'Childhood's End'.
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Glad you read it kim. Say, you read serfs Invisible collar ?
... Or mebbe you know Robin. ) 'Childhood's End' I'll look it up.
beththeserf.
Pied Piper works too with the variant that he eradicated the mice, and was fairly recompensed, but stole the children anyway for political mischief.
============
You can tell our friend that 'combobulations' cover a lot of ground. The whole human is combobulated. The same vessel drawn and quartered and displayed is 'discombobulated', sort of as the alarmist climate scientists have done to Gaia with their AnthroCO2 hysteria, no, let me change that to delusion, better etymology.
Now, before I go any further, I'd better look up the meaning of the word. I've been using it for so long the moisture of its meaning has soaked into the sand, the residue is dust in the wind.
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kim. Are you dissing us with your word?