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Discussion > The Moral and Intellectual Poverty of Climate Alarm

Phil, you could try Ken's piece here:

"Stepping outside my comfort zone"

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2019/10/14/stepping-outside-my-comfort-zone/

It's about this petition/letter which he, among many others, signed:

"Scientists’ Declaration of Support for Non-Violent Direct Action Against Government Inaction Over the Climate and Ecological Emergency"

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1FuZYG-gT5EPTLDyvgNnlYIS5dAy43TM1MnvOls48qIc/preview?pru=AAABbe5a2XM*ZvFb_TlRgIxpLq5t49DNXQ#

He seems to have doubts and reservations (“I’m somewhat uncomfortable with the claim that human-caused changes to the Earth’s land, sea and air are severely threatening the habitability of our planet…I don’t think what we’re doing is going to make it un-inhabitable”) about aspects of the letter (but signed it anyway).

I don’t understand how a scientist can be uncomfortable with a scientific claim, but put his name to it anyway, because he “wanted to show some support”.

If he’d signed but added a caveat, I’d accept that as a reasonable position to adopt, but he didn’t. He signed, without expressing the reservations he claims to feel. I wonder how many of his co-signatories also had reservations, but signed anyway?

When do scientists cease to be scientists and become propagandists? Is Ken a scientist for Extinction Rebellion?

Oct 16, 2019 at 7:45 PM | Unregistered CommenterMark Hodgson

However, I am trying to step out of my comfort zone, and I do think we need to take immediate and decisive action, I do think that the warnings from the scientific community have – to date – been largely ignored, and I do support those who are campaigning to get governments to act (although, it’s key that this remains peaceful and non-violent). Hence, I wanted to show some support.

That's one of the things about science, there are always uncertainties, there are always confidence intervals. Wait for 100% and you wait forever.

Oct 16, 2019 at 10:30 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

I do think that the warnings from the scientific community have – to date – been largely ignored…
Because – to date – they have been 100% wrong; no uncertainty, there, and no need to wait.

So… how are governments supposed to “act”, when they have no idea what is happening, no idea what is causing it and no idea how to influence it, one way or another? Oh. Wait – they can just tax us into submission, I suppose; that is bound to work!

Oct 17, 2019 at 12:31 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

"That's one of the things about science, there are always uncertainties, there are always confidence intervals. Wait for 100% and you wait forever.
Oct 16, 2019 at 10:30 PM | Phil Clarke"

Excellent. Trump should scrap all funding of Climate Science and we can all wait to see if any Hockey Teamster predictions for Global Warming correct.

Oct 17, 2019 at 12:33 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Will Ken and his fellow academics want "to show some support" for Susan Crockford?

This thread is appropriately headed "The Moral and Intellectual Poverty of Climate Alarm".

Oct 17, 2019 at 8:16 AM | Unregistered CommenterMark Hodgson

Will Ken and his fellow academics want "to show some support" for Susan Crockford?

I doubt it

Oct 17, 2019 at 6:35 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Wow, Mr Clarke! You give credence to an article that uses the term “climate denialist”?! Please point to anyone who actually denies climate.

What? You can’t? Well, colour me surprised!

Oct 17, 2019 at 7:09 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Sadly, Phil, I doubt it too.

Showing support for quasi-religious nutters (despite, apparently, having doubts) is probably more important than supporting freedom of expression in academia these days. How low we have stooped.

Oct 17, 2019 at 8:05 PM | Unregistered CommenterMark Hodgson

Nobody is preventing Ms Crockford from continuing to spread her nonsense. She has merely lost the right to affiliate herself with the University. Perhaps she should have considered that possibility when she breached University regulations on conflicts of interest when she decided not to declare the $750 a month she was receiving from the Heartland Institute?

Oct 18, 2019 at 8:35 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Phil, back to the ad homs then. Are you claiming that's why she was sacked?

Even Wikipedia manages a modicum of balance on that question:

"Between at least 2011 and 2013, she received payment from The Heartland Institute, in the form of $750 per month, which Crockford states was to provide summaries of published papers that might not have been covered by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.[3] This payment has been construed as an undisclosed conflict of interest, by blogs such as Desmog Blog.[2] Her response to such claims was a disclosure of the job description, how much she was paid, and the duration of the contract"

She disclosed it in 2015, after criticism was made by your lot before then:

https://polarbearscience.com/2015/03/12/on-being-a-polar-bear-expert-among-other-things/

What's the relevance to her treatment this year? Would an alarmist behaving the same way be treated like that?

Oct 18, 2019 at 9:00 AM | Unregistered CommenterMark Hodgson

She has not been sacked. The unpaid post of Adjunct Professor is a rolling contract renewed every three years at the discretion of the department. They have decided not to renew on this occasion. It happens. They committee has not given its reasons and so I am not going to speculate. She disclosed her outside income only after it was leaked, and we do know that certain members of staff were unimpressed...

“It is regrettable that anyone affiliated with the University of Victoria participated in the activities of an organization like the Heartland Institute,” says Dr. Thomas F. Pederson, Executive Director of the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS) at UVic. “The University prides itself on being an institution of higher learning that deals with facts and that is nowhere more true than in the field of science. Those who deny that the planet is warming as a direct result of human activity are denying facts.

“The Heartland Institute is one of a collection of so-called think tanks that have been extensively supported by elements within the American fossil fuel industry,” says Pederson. “Their mission is quite clearly not to think, but instead to sow confusion with respect to the global warming issue.”

Oct 18, 2019 at 9:20 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

“It is regrettable that anyone affiliated with the University of Victoria participated in the activities of an organization like the Heartland Institute,”
No bias there, then, is there? No acceptance that anyone should have the right of free association? Is there something in the contract that she should not be associating with such organizations?
Those who deny that the planet is warming as a direct result of human activity are denying facts.
But denying the fact that the world is no longer warming is NOT denying the facts, then? ☺ And when the cooling becomes such that it can no longer be ignored, what then? Revert to the message of the 1970s and blame it on human-produced CO2, again?

Feast yourself on this.

Oct 18, 2019 at 10:57 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

July 2019 was the warmest month on record, nearly 1C above the 20th century average, the last five years were the five hottest and 2019 will also be in the top 5. Not much cooling in evidence.

A few facts about those 30,000 scientists (The Oregon Petition)

- Anyone in the US with a degree is eligible to sign, the signatories include nurses, vetinarians, chiropracters etc. Just 39 are climatologists. Bob Grumbine noted that the largest single discipline amongst the signatories is actually engineering, and the number of actual signatories is a miniscule fraction of those eligible to sign.

- In 2001, Scientific American tried to contact a random sample of 30 signatories

Of the 26 we were able to identify in various databases, 11 said they still agreed with the petition — one was an active climate researcher, two others had relevant expertise, and eight signed based on an informal evaluation. Six said they would not sign the petition today, three did not remember any such petition, one had died, and five did not answer repeated messages. 

- The petition was published with a fake academic paper tricked out to resemble an article published by the National Academy of Science. The NAS took the highly unusual step of issuing a press release distancing themselves from the project:

The NAS Council would like to make it clear that this petition has nothing to do with the National Academy of Sciences and that the manuscript was not published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences or in any other peer-reviewed journal.

The petition does not reflect the conclusions of expert reports of the Academy.

The US Skeptics Society reviewed the petition and concluded

… through his Global Warming Petition Project, Arthur Robinson has solicited the opinions of the wrong group of people in the wrong way and drawn the wrong conclusions about any possible consensus among relevant and qualified scientists regarding the hypothesis of human-caused global warming. His petition is unqualified to deliver answers about a consensus in which the public is interested. He has a right to conduct any kind of petition drive he wishes, but he is not ethically entitled to misrepresent his petition as a fair reflection of relevant scientific opinion. He has confused his political with his scientific aims and misled the public in the process.

Oct 18, 2019 at 1:51 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

"He has confused his political with his scientific aims and misled the public in the process."
Pot, kettle and overwhelming blackness come to mind.

Oct 18, 2019 at 2:40 PM | Unregistered CommenterAK

Oh, well… at least you prove that you followed the link. That you then just selected the headline to pick holes in, thus only really settling for your usual ad homs, just verifies my earlier summation of you, Mr Clarke – you never fail to disappoint.

How about addressing the points linked to in that site by such as Richard Lindzen (Who he? you ask…), Bob Carter (Who he? you ask…), Dr Anastasios Tsonis (Who he? you ask…), Lennart Bengtsson (Who … Oh, you get the message), Freeman Dyson, etc, etc…. Nope; you prefer to attack the messengers, not the message, and listen to such alumni as Al Gore (politician, with no real scientific qualifications), none of whose dire predictions have come anywhere near to happening. However, he has become very rich from this whole scam, so is obviously a good role model to follow.

Oct 18, 2019 at 7:08 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

How about this?

I suspect that any discussion will be about the author, not the article.

Oct 18, 2019 at 8:10 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

"Bob Grumbine noted that the largest single discipline amongst the signatories is actually engineering,..."
Oct 18, 2019 at 1:51 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Phucking hell. Just the sort of people with professionally enforced mathematical rigor that one might wish to have as scientific auditors.

Once again, you fail so early in your assertions that it is not worth bothering with the rest.

Oct 18, 2019 at 11:29 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

Roughly 99.9% of eligible engineers declined to sign the petition.

Oct 18, 2019 at 11:49 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Lindzen is retired and hasn't published on climate in over a decade, his contributions on the 'infra-red iris' and low climate sensitivity have been shown to be flawed.

Late in his career, he was also in the habit of giving talks full of inaccuracies.

Bob Carter was a geologist. See here for a discussion/demolition of his arguments.

Tsonis, I believe, is not a sceptic of AGW, but the degree to which it can be attributed. Best known for his 2009 paper with Kyle Swanson, discussed here

Lennart Bengtsson, a meteorologist, (born 1935), had a paper rejected by
Environmental Research Letters in 2014 and seems just a little bitter.

Physics is my speciality and Freeman Dyson (born 1923) is a personal hero of mine, His work on quantum electrodynamics was just genius. But nobody is infallible, and his thoughts on climate are misguided.

A handful of deceased and/or retired scientists versus the 20,000 members of the US AGU (to quote just one of the professional bodies endorsing AGW).
>

Hmmm, tough one.

Oct 19, 2019 at 12:21 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

And of those 20,000 how many are trained in climate science would you think? How many are elderly/retired? Several professional bodies I used to belong to (to their shame) have endorsed AGW but not CAGW. That doesn't mean that even the majority of members agree.
Eggs and counting them.

Oct 19, 2019 at 7:57 AM | Unregistered CommenterAK

We emailed 8547 authors an invitation to rate their own
papers and received 1200 responses (a 14% response rate).
After excluding papers that were not peer-reviewed, not
climate-related or had no abstract, 2142 papers received
self-ratings from 1189 authors. The self-rated levels of
endorsement are shown in table 4. Among self-rated
papers that stated a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed
the consensus.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024

On the other side..... Christopher Monckton!

Oct 19, 2019 at 9:37 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

I suspect that any discussion will be about the author, not the article.


The paper should not be relied upon.
Their claims are based on a chain of reasoning with multiple flaws:
(1) They claim that climate models cannot be relied upon but do not demonstrate this.
(2) They instead make a new climate model (despite this being in contradiction of (1)).
(3) Their new climate model is unvalidated. It is based upon datasets of cloud and humidity without any sources given and which are not up-to-date. They provide no assessment of the accuracy of the data used—these variables are very difficult to measure on a global basis over the time period used. No physical basis is given for their new climate model (e.g. no process is given for how higher relative humidity can make the globe cool).
(4) They fail to consider cause and effect. For example, they assume without any support that a decrease in relative humidity is natural. They give no reasons why it would have decreased. They fail to consider whether climate change could have caused relative humidity to change.
(5) They state without any support that most of the atmospheric CO2 increase is due to emissions from the oceans. They ignore anthropogenic CO2 emissions which are more than large enough to explain the full increase. They ignore observational evidence that shows that the oceans are net sinks of CO2 at present, not net sources.
(6) They dismiss the entire body of climate science—especially that there is a significant greenhouse effect—and instead cite their own work (unpublished or published in journals outside the field).

Much more here

Oct 19, 2019 at 9:48 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Mr Clarke (Oct 19, 2019 at 12:21 AM): thank you for proving me right, yet again, as you attack the messengers, not the message…

Oct 19, 2019 at 11:08 AM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Mr Clarke, have you heard the expression: “When you are in a hole, stop digging…”?

Oct 19, 2019 at 1:40 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent