Discussion > Entropic Man's list of thirty indicators which show AGW
I want my 15 seconds back
.
I have a morbid interest in Entropic Man's links.
So I tried Bing, Google, DuckDuckGo, Dogpile and Ask with the search 30 indicators of climate change. SkepticalScience can manage 10 and the CRU four. I couldn't find any reference to 15 or 30.
"search 30 indicators of climate change"
Tis only but only one per year?
At first the number grew by more than one a year. The rate then slowed (audits and revelations?) and of late the number has, through an evolving system of contradiction, started to decline. What was once a definite is now a maybe natural. What was once a positive is now a negative.
As always, nowadays, we live in interesting times! Is it not time to realise that we can benefit from understanding just how little we know?
"Richard Feynman "Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts." h/t stewgreen
Testing
Great! My tablet will work here, but my computer won't. :-( This may take a little while.
"Great! My tablet will work here, but my computer won't. :-( This may take a little while."
Que?
Bring the tablets down from Sinai, Fedex to the Bish, I am sure he will find a way of presenting them.
This is my parameters list. I' m afraid its grown a little, to three dozen.
Ice
Arctic sea ice extent decreasing
Arctic sea ice volume decreasing
Greenland ice sheet losing mass
Antarctica ice sheet
Arctic snow cover decreasing
Antarctic sea ice extent increasing.
Antarctic sea salinity decreasing
Glaciers retreating
Ocean
Sea surface temperatures increasing
Shallow ( above 700m) ocean heat content increasing
Deep ocean heat content increasing
Sea level rising
PH dropping
Land
Surface temperatures increasing
Droughts increasing
Extreme weather increasing
Permafrost melting
Atmosphere
O2 concentration decreasing
Troposphere temperatures increasing
Stratosphere temperatures decreasing
Water vapour increasing
Jetstreams less stable
High cloud increasing
Low cloud increasing
Energy flows
Imbalance between insolation and OLR
Surface infrared radiation increasing
Downwelling infra-red radiation increasing
15micrometre CO2 band spreading
Biology
Treelines moving to higher altitudes and latitudes
Biome and species ranges spreading to higher latitudes
Longer growing seasons
Vegetation cover increasing
CO2
CO2 content increasing
Carbon 13 decreasing
Methane
Outgassing from Arctic Ocean clathrates
Release from tundra
A little background. I started reading about glacial cycles and pollen analysis in 1971. This grew into an interest in climate and global warming.which has continued ever since.
The input is all the papers I've read over 43 years. There' s no chance that I can supply a complete bibliography!
The output is my own mental model of the climate, with inputs from physics, chemistry, biology, meteorology, astronomy, oceanography and whatever else came in handy.
This list should really be a spider diagram, but since that only exists in my head, I can't show all the interconnections here.
I don't know how much of this is in the literature. Some are obviously documented, others less so. I don't recall anyone discussing trends in downwelling radiation, but they are only just started monitoring it.
The list is very much a personal document, made up for fun and as an aide memoire. I don't insist that it is perfect, complete, or even correct, but I hope it gives food for thought.
Enjoy.
Entropic man -
Thanks, that's a good list. There are some redundancies there -- for example, O2 concentration decrease is complementary to CO2 increase. And a couple which I don't think are present, or at least not well attested -- drought and extreme weather come to mind. [Edit: Clathrates and tundra, too.]
But rather than do a line-by-line, I'd like to ask a slightly different question than that which prompted this thread. As you probably know, I share your belief that (a) it's gotten slightly warmer, and (b) this is partly due to anthropogenic effects. [I'd rather not get dragged into whether anthropogenic accounts for 50% vs. 75% vs. 100%, which percentage is in any event likely to vary with the time span and the effects included.] But (to me, at least) the main difference is that you view these effects as civilization-threatening [I think you wrote that on another thread] while I view it as a potential concern but not something which requires an immediate, large-scale response. Which of these makes this so urgent to you? My intent is to focus the conversation on the ones which you consider most critical. Along the lines of a Pareto chart.
For each of those metrics (better word than "parameters" IMHO) ...
(a) Changed by how much since when?
(b) Why is this rate of change a concern?
(c) How much is attributable to humans (specifically CO2) rather than other causes?
(d) Empirical evidence for the above? (I.e. not model output)
EM - thanks for posting your list. I echo throg's request for the details.
Interesting EM.
You have a mixture of factors, some of which are simply the effects of a gentle warming over 250 years, others potentially indicators of effects of anthropogenic CO2, some are debatable (I will leave those to the physicists here) and others are clearly negative feedbacks. Some (such as O2 depletion, sea acidification and sea level rise) are clearly de minimis, regardless of what the IPCC and Manbearpig might say. There are a couple (Antarctic sea ice and Antarctic temperatures) that argue directly against you. The "extreme weather" part is quite simply wrong, as numerous studies show.
The only potentially scary thing here is your last section about methane, so I would want to see your evidence. Apart from that, all your list adds up to is a modest amplification of a pre-existing warming trend, offset by some negative feedbacks, leading to an overall trend of perhaps .05ºC -.07ºC per decade and improved growing conditions across much of the globe.
Interesting how what we think of as news is simply a re-hash.
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/77891667?searchTerm=causes%20of%20change%20of%20climate&searchLimits=
EM - I am not going to spend any more time on this, but I just posted the following on the Guardian is sensible thread in response to your comment there last night:
EM - that Polyakov paper was published in 2002, the Arctic has been cooling for the last 10 years - Alaska certainly:
The First Decade of the New Century: A Cooling Trend for Most of Alaska
http://www.benthamscience.com/open/toascj/articles/V006/111TOASCJ.pdf and http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0442%282004%29017%3C4045%3ATETWIT%3E2.0.CO%3B2
Canada Nunavut Arctic cooling since 2010, graphs for 10 stations - http://sunshinehours.wordpress.com/2013/03/21/nunavut-canadas-arctic-temperature-falling-from-8c-to-12c-per-decade-for-last-3-years/
Much of the 20th century Arctic cooling has come from NOAA and GISS adjustments, e.g.:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/25/another-giss-miss-this-time-in-iceland/
GISS - USHCN data adjustments for UHI - "Dr. Ruedy of GISS confessed in an email that “[the United States Historical Climate Network] data are not routinely kept up-to-date, and in another that NASA had inflated its temperature data since 2000 on a questionable basis. “NASA’s assumption that the adjustments made the older data consistent with future data…may not have been correct”, he said. “Indeed, in 490 of the 1,057 stations the USHCN data was up to 1 C degree colder than the corresponding GHCN data, in 77 stations the data was the same, and in the remaining 490 stations the USHCN data was warmer than the GHCN data.” "
- http://ncwatch.typepad.com/media/2011/07/nasa-adjusts-observed-temperature-data-to-fit-their-climate-models.html
GISS adjusting Arctic temps - http://notrickszone.com/2012/03/01/data-tamperin-giss-caught-red-handed-manipulaing-data-to-produce-arctic-climate-history-revision/
climate fraud temperature adjustments, Dr Roy Spencer - most of warming in USHCN dataset from adjustments - http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/13/warming-in-the-ushcn-is-mainly-an-artifact-of-adjustments/
see also http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/30/spencer-shows-compelling-evidence-of-uhi-in-crutem3-data/
and GISS comparitor - http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/1998changesannotated.gif?w=500&h=355
There's also UHI which is much more significant in high Arctic settlements than temperate zones, and up to 6C or more on winter days e.g.
UHI study Barrow, Alaska - http://www.cas.umt.edu/geography/documents/Hinkel_etal_2003_winter_UHI.pdf
"Removing UHI distortion – the elephant in the sitting room" guest post on Digging in the Clay - (Jan 28th 2011) http://diggingintheclay.wordpress.com/2011/01/28/removing-uhi-distortion-the-elephant-in-the-sitting-room-part-1/
Temperatures in Iceland - as originally published (Iceland Met Office) http://icelandweather.blog.is/blog/icelandweather/entry/1249149/
and the climate fraud extends to sea level adjustments also - Envisat Sea level data adjustment - http://www.real-science.com/sea-level-rise-retroactively-triples-at-envisat-overnight + blink graph - http://oi41.tinypic.com/2en2e6f.jpg
Global sea ice is doing fine -
global sea ice graph - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/global.daily.ice.area.withtrend.jpg
glacial recession - been happening since end of LIA, e.g. Glacier Bay info map - http://soundwaves.usgs.gov/2001/07/fieldwork2.html or Greenland Jakobshavn Glacier retreat 1850-present image and NH temperature graph - http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4139/4753025383_5c34f3dd93_b.jpg
Oh and your claim that NH snow cover has declined is also bollocks:
http://notrickszone.com/2013/01/04/northern-hemisphere-snow-cover-sets-all-time-december-record-9-million-sq-km-more-than-32-years-ago/ source
- http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=12
or http://www.climate4you.com/SnowCover.htm#Recent%20northern%20hemisphere%20snow%20cover http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/ (scroll down for graph)
Feb 13, 2014 at 8:47 AM | Registered Commenter lapogus
And since you have now mentioned Outgassing from Arctic Ocean clathrates:
climate alarmism - climate feedback, CH4, methane release in Arctic not new - "Gas Outlets off Spitsbergen Are No New Phenomenon
Expedition to the Greenland Sea with Surprising Results
September 19, 2012/Kiel. Marine scientists from Kiel, together with colleagues from Bremen, Great Britain, Switzerland and Norway, spent four and a half weeks examining methane emanation from the sea bed off the coast of Spitsbergen with the German research vessel MARIA S. MERIAN. There they gained a very differentiated picture: Several of the gas outlets have been active for hundreds of years." -
http://www.geomar.de/uploads/media/pm_2012_67_MSM21-4_Fazit_en.pdf
And as for the release from thawing tundra - Scotland and Ireland are covered with unfrozen peat bogs, and they are a net carbon sink.
'constant' = 'a number that stays fixed'.
'parameter' =
'a constant whose value you can choose but which then stays fixed until the next time you choose it'
Hi Entropic Man
John Brignell @ Numberwatch has spent many years compiling a list of things linked to Global Warming. Enjoy.
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
Jack
Lapogus
Hence my morbid interest in Entropic Man's links. Particularly after his "rapidly accelerating sea level rise" of a few months perhaps longer ago which then reverted back to normal. Although I had previously wasted time on another bulk list which turned out not to be exactly as claimed.
Harold W
O2 decrease is not necessarily complementary to CO2 increase. Think for example of anaerobic desperation. However, since most of the anthropogenic increase in CO2 is by combustion of fossil fuels or oxidation of limestone for cement, so its a good approximation.
I thought it worth including both metrics ( good term, throg )as cross- validation. It is always worth measuring in as many different ways as possible, to minimise the effect of problems with individual techniques.
We are a civilisation of coastal plains and, as I have recently been reminded, river valleys. The last six weeks have demonstrated how easily big chunks of our infrastructure can be disrupted. I expect climate change to bring even larger disruption, perhaps beyond our capacity to adapt. Many previous civilisations have been disrupted that way. I see no special reason why we are exempt.
Throg, not banned yet, lapogus
This came out of a lifetime's reading, without keeping a list of references.
Any references I put up would be from Internet sources. You can use the list as a starting point for Google or Google Scholar searches just as well as I, with the added confidence that you are dodging any spin I might apply.
I've no great desire to turn this into a game of reference tennis.
Martin A, Jack Cowper
You left out skirt lengths.
You only need one GW reference: JASO Atlantic, 1M to 30N. Format any years figures against 30 years pree 1900 (HadiSST1 or whatever). This will demonstrate a pronounced and specific area of the E Atlantic that demonstrates every criteria necessary for GW. An even better refinement of this data is subtracting the SST of water flowing south into this zone from the water in the zone. This provides an indicator of how much additional solar SW is being absorbed each year. The result should reveal an almost straight line comfortably above the mean since 1970 with no significant reduction during the haiatus period. Don't just chat about climate science, crunch the number yourself.
Hi Conor
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ScYH1_rWf7c
Is this your presentation?
Conor McMenemie -
I went to KNMI Explorer and fetched the HadSST3 values for 0-70W, 0-30N. [I wasn't 100% sure what you meant by "1M to 30N" -- perhaps you can clarify?] Averaged the JASO months' values. The curve was fairly jagged, but showed a consistent rising pattern.
I'm not entirely sure what the point was which you are trying to make. It's gotten warmer, OHC has increased (in that area) -- OK. The rate of increase does not seem to be tracking the forcing, however. Again, perhaps you can clarify.
As to comparing the SST with that flowing into the region -- I don't see that KNMI Explorer provides that sort of information. Perhaps you'd give some information about how to obtain this data, or post a graph yourself.
For EM to share his list of evidence.