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Discussion > Why Do Climate Scientists Believe That There's a Debate To Be Had

I'm not a lukewarmer, I'm an agnostic.

Mar 8, 2014 at 10:20 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

2So you "lukewarmers" think that there is a problem, but currrent policies will not solve it. The scientists are able to define the processes involved and, within their limitations, suggest possible outcomes of different options. They are not the decision makers.

We elect politicians to make the policy decisions.

What would you suggest they do?"

Tell the truth.

Now if you don't mind go away, you're a distraction not adding to the debate. When you believe you can come back, but try not to bring Chandra with you.

Mar 9, 2014 at 12:53 AM | Unregistered Commentergeronimo

They could always make a decision to do nothing on the grounds that (as yet at least) temperature is not behaving outwith normal variation.
Were it not that there are eco-activists and climate psyentists with an agenda which has more to do with human behaviour and how they think humans out to behave we wouldn't be having this discussion anyway.
No increase in storms or floods or droughts beyond what has been experienced in the past; nothing special in sea level rise; "acidification" of the oceans (the last refuge, so far, of these scoundrels) a displacement activity (also a deliberate distortion); no evidence that 2­° is dangerous and plenty of evidence (see Richard Tol's work) to the contrary.
Nothing to see here; get back to living your lives.

Mar 9, 2014 at 9:00 AM | Registered CommenterMike Jackson

We elect politicians to make the policy decisions.

What would you suggest they do?
Mar 8, 2014 at 8:05 PM | Entropic man

Yes we do. And we don't expect them to do so on the basis of swallowing uncritically what pressure groups (inc the Met Office) tell them to do.

Here is what I suggest they should do:

1. Ask some tough questions - the sort of questions that Bernard Madoff should have been asked when his results were clearly not statistically possible (insufficient statistical variance, therefore clearly fabricated).

2. Evaluate the answers and then, having done so, sack the lot of them. Or at least put them to useful work where they will do no harm. Dismantling wind turbine foundations and restoring the terrain, for example.

3. Start a small project to redo climate science from scratch, rigorously this time. (Use of unvalidated models*, 'feedbacks' to represents complex nonlinear effects, and other nonsenses avoided.)

4. Start another small project to look at dangers with low probability but high impact (asteroid collision detection and so on).

_______________________________________________________________________________

* “I believe in computer models. My whole career was about using computer models to make life or death decisions. In 1963 I had to use them to calculate whether, when the lunar module landed on a 12 degree slope it would fall over or not – and design the landing gear accordingly. But if you can’t validate the models – and the IPCC can’t – then don’t use them."
(WUWT quote from NASA engineer)

Mar 9, 2014 at 9:32 AM | Registered CommenterMartin A

Stick meet EM. EM meet wrong end.

"I feel as though I've entered the fray from a parallel universe because where I was located the "science was in" and discussions about what we could do about it had been done and dusted."

Which part of this statement gave you the impression that I was suggesting the scientists do anything about the policy? It is they who are implying that, not me.

What I want the scientists to do about it is to realise that the wild guesses they're making about the future state of the climate have a real impact on real people's lives and to moderate their language accordingly. The surprise for me from the statements made by Ed and Richard is that they don't know that they're the puppets of the environmental movement in all this, not the puppet masters,and seem to be assuming they can take part in making policy. My whole point was the policy is there already and won't be changed by the scientists.

In fact I've commented somewhere on the fact that Richard actually believed the scientists were given the final say in what went into IPPC AR5 SPM. The SPM is a document to drive policy, that Richard thinks the bureaucrats would let the scientists have the final say in what went into a document meant to drive policy makes him seriously innocent in these matters.

Ponder this EM. There is NO UPSIDE whatsoever to an increase in global temperatures according to the IPCC reports. NONE. I don't believe you need much of an education to understand you're being fed a line when with your own eyes you can see the munificent benefits of warmth in the tropics. (Not to your point I know, but I reckon if I keep telling people it will slowly dawn on them that the IPCC is a political entity which the scientists, in good faith I might add, take part in to give the imprimatur of scientific respectability to the green policies being imposed on the Western democracies, and the sooner they wake up to that fact the better for all of us).

Mar 9, 2014 at 10:46 AM | Unregistered Commentergeronimo

geronimo
Thank you for that.
I shan't bore you — oh, all right then; yes I will — by repeating what I have been saying for at least the last 15 years. This was always about politics, mainly environmental* politics. Climate science has only ever been used to serve the interests of the political activist fringe which has failed miserably to have its philosophy adopted by any democratic method anywhere.
Delingpole's description "watermelons" applies fairly accurately to the driving force behind this.

*I initially wrote "green" politics there but they're not quite the same thing. The run-of-the-mill greenies, not dissimilar from Lenin's "useful idiots" are broadly sincere, if a bit naive, about the "back to nature" idea and a simpler life. Read an article about Google Glass in today's ST for an example of where never-ending technology is taking us.
Agreed it's not only the homeless ex-pats from Socialist Worker or Communist Party of Wherever (Marxist-Leninist) but that is the mind set that is driving climate philosophy.
And, yes, it is religion by another name.

Mar 9, 2014 at 11:36 AM | Registered CommenterMike Jackson

EM, I suspect that you've the potential to cross over to the Enlightenment Side, by which I mean the side which supports real evidence, holds dear the principles of the Scientific Method, and which thereby strictly distinguishes between fabricated (i.e. modelled) and empirical data.

Just commit to consuming less salt in your diet, and approach the subject of climatology without the unhelpful premise of "Oh god, oh god, we're all gonna die!". ;)

For example, let's assume that the GHG theory is as correct today as in Arrhenius' time. That gives a climate sensitivity to CO2 of ~1.2 degrees C. Assuming that we accept that extraordinary assertions require extraordinary evidence, or even require ANY substantiating evidence, make a scientific case for concern about anthropogenic CO2.

Bear in mind that I'm not a scientist. Like most people who are involved in or affected by the CAGW case, I am a juror. The case for urgent action must, beyond reasonable doubt, be shown to be compelling or the jury cannot and should not find against humanity.

Mar 9, 2014 at 11:53 AM | Registered CommenterSimon Hopkinson

geronimo,Simon Hipkinson

Curiously, I regard the science and evidence as supporting my view.

I see you as the deluded puppets of a right wing political agenda. :-)

Mar 9, 2014 at 1:17 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

EM
The evidence that Simon Hopkinson is quoting tells us that climate sensitivity (per Arrhenius) is ~1.2­°.
So what "evidence" do you have that is different? Other than academia's highly sophisticated computer games which do not produce evidence, only the product of their programmers' wishful thinking.

Mar 9, 2014 at 1:31 PM | Registered CommenterMike Jackson

"I see you as the deluded puppets of a right wing political agenda. :-)"
Entropic man

Deluded or not, this puppet show has a cast of billions. Unfortunately for you, might has right... pun not intended. Sceptics are just those who have thought about the issues and come up with pertinent questions. The rest just don't care about your evidence or your opinion.

Mar 9, 2014 at 1:46 PM | Unregistered CommenterTinyCO2

Entropic Man writes:

I see you as the deluded puppets of a right wing political agenda. :-)

I do actually understand this, and I understand why, because until 2009 I WAS the deluded puppet of a left-wing political agenda.

It's convenient to paint your opponents in political colours, but it isn't correct. The science of climatology, such as it is (and if a non-experimental subject like climatology can BE described as "science") is actually apolitical. Or at least it should be. Mostly I glaze over at both the left- and the right-wing political proclamations I hear. I'm invariably left cold by the left's fallacious "Big Oil Shill" or the right's "because.. Obamacare!" but I am also angered by the CRU/Mannian "you can have my publicly funded data when you pry it from my cold, dead hand!" My objections, my emotions, all are driven by issues of the integrity of the science and the illusion that it is "settled", "robust" or "indicating things are worse than we thought".

Gimme the science. Schneider said he hoped scientists could be both honest and effective. For me, it is not enough simply to hope. What the public believes of science and what is the truth of it are far apart indeed. These are very dark times for science.

Mar 9, 2014 at 2:39 PM | Registered CommenterSimon Hopkinson

"Curiously, I regard the science and evidence as supporting my view.

I see you as the deluded puppets of a right wing political agenda. :-)"

It's my post, so I'll remind you that it was about why Ed Hawkins and Richard Betts were exultant about the contents of he Lewis/Crok paper. Part of that puzzlement was indeed, as to your first post, why they believed they should/could have assumed they'd have a say in policy. There is plenty of evidence that the policies emanating from the ridiculous CAGW theory are driven almost entirely by environmentalists - a member of FoE framed the CCA - and indeed that environmentalists and others want to stop the western industrialised countries in their tracks. The scientists have no say in policy, they merely provide an imprimatur of respectability to the environmentalists' hijacking of the democratic process. Whether they're willing dupes, or don't know what they're doing, they merely puppets dancing to the environmentalist tune.

Of course I'm a deluded right wing puppet, it's a much better place to be than being a deluded "wron wing person.

Now stay on topic please.

Mar 9, 2014 at 2:46 PM | Unregistered Commentergeronimo

"I see you as the deluded puppets of a right wing political agenda. :-)"

Well I deny that applies to me. I assumed the global warming stuff, Kyoto, etc, was all solidly based on detailed measurement and calculation. Then I decided to read up on it for myself. It was like trying to catch smoke. Then the stridency reached my level of consciousness. For a while, I thought my noticing the similarity to a religion, and the parallels with "Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds", were my original observations.

I don't think right wing politics had anything to do with the opinions I formed.

EM - to me you come over like one of those God botherers who assures me he can scientifically prove the existence of the Almighty.

Mar 9, 2014 at 2:47 PM | Registered CommenterMartin A

Can I add my name to the Deluded Right Wing Puppets please? I might actually be in the UKIP wing, as I don't even make it into the Lukewarm camp, being firmly in the we can't actually tell group.

Mar 9, 2014 at 6:49 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Geronimo

We are here debating the politics, and elsewhere on this site debating the science. Clearly there is a debate to be had.

Martin A

I tried some statistical theology once. It turned out that those with a religion had no greater chance of surviving a disaster than atheists. Prayer was actually counterproductive as it wasted effort better used elsewhere reducing one's chance of survival.

As an theological agnostic myself I was not surprised. I have carefully avoided breaking the news of the non- existence of God to my Christian wife. :-)

Sandy S

Shall I classify you as an agnostic, along wit TinyCO? :-)

Mar 9, 2014 at 7:05 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

I'm a nonconformist.

Mar 9, 2014 at 7:12 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Drake

my take on all this is slightly different from other viewpoints I have see, Consider the statements at the head of the thread:

Richard Betts:

"As I said on Judith's blog, I take this as a positive step because the debate on anthropogenic climate change is now finally shifting away from distractions such as whether warming is “statistically significant”, or whether warming has gone away, or whether humans have an influence on climate. It has moved into the area where it really needs to be – exactly how strong is the human influence, how much change can we expect in the future, and what sort of impacts/risks does this imply?"

Ed Hawkins:

"It is great to see the GWPF accepting that business-as-usual means significant further warming is expected. Now we can move the debate to what to do about it."

Aren't they just trying to shift the ground to discussion of sensitivity and politics because they have wrapped themselves in knots failing to give authoritative and coherent answers to the questions about "how much it is warming"? Now they are claiming - look, the sceptics admit it is warming, so let's forget that all this science is based on fragmentary and crappy data.

Mar 9, 2014 at 7:47 PM | Unregistered Commenterdiogenes

It strains my credulity to believe that Richard Betts doesn't understand the process for the preparation of the Summary for Policymakers. AFAIK, the process has been the same since the beginning of the IPCC, and he has been deeply involved with the IPCC for several years. Many amateurs on this site understand it, Donna Laframboise wrote extensively about it in her book, and it has been discussed on climate blogs for years.

If he genuinely doesn't comprehend it, he should certainly not be in charge of anything important!

Mar 9, 2014 at 8:53 PM | Registered Commenterjohanna

Entropic Man
Yes I guess that just about sums up my feelings. The Bing dictionary says:

somebody denying something is knowable: somebody who doubts that a question has one correct answer or that something can be completely understood

Although this does bring us back to the denier issue, and I'm not sure why as the second part seems adequate with the addition of the phrase or is provable at the end.

Mar 9, 2014 at 9:40 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Diogenes 7:47PM
Is it that Richard Betts is trying to get out of his bubble? Or perhaps he has not even noticed it exists
(Johanna, 8:53PM).
There has never been any doubt that humans influence climate. It is, to borrow a phrase from Lindzen, trivially true. The debate has always been about 'how strong' that influence is. As far as our CO2 is concerned, Lindzen noted that it was likely that we would find it hard to detect the effect of it, and that, as far as I know, remains a highly credible, and highly creditable, point of view.

Mar 9, 2014 at 10:02 PM | Registered CommenterJohn Shade

> There has never been any doubt that humans influence climate

You haven't been reading "sceptic" blogs much then, have you? Maybe too stuck in your own bubble!

Mar 9, 2014 at 10:53 PM | Unregistered CommenterChandra

Chandra: You haven't addressed my point much earlier that, before Tim Berners-Lee even invented the World Wide Web, and thus long before blogs existed, climate scepticism existed in the form of Richard Lindzen and other scientists questioning the edicts of Al Gore and James Hansen from 1988 onwards. Sceptic blogs have come late to the game but the best read of them all, Watts Up With That, has often given a platform to Lindzen. Nigel Lawson, whose stellar political career also mostly preceded the Web, recently called the MIT man the most distinguished climate scientist on the planet. Lindzen has always said there is no doubt that humans influence climate and that radiative physics would suggest CO2 is a greenhouse gas. The question has been how much warming will take place for an increase in CO2. The 0.7 deg C rise since 1850 (and the lesser one since 1950) have always suggested that sensitivity must be low. That's how the debate has always been framed by 'mainstream scepticism' as TBYJ called it - but his account signally failed to do justice to this history. The blog/pseudonym bubble is its own trap. Look at the broader sweep of history. One side has been proved right. Hansen's scary projections in 1988 now look exceedingly stupid. The pause in globally averaged temperature anomaly rise since 1997 is entirely in line with Lindzen's view nine years before. Escaping the bubble requires facing up to these basic, and for you unwelcome, facts.

Mar 9, 2014 at 11:28 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Drake

" before Tim Berners-Lee even invented the World Wide Web, and
thus long before blogs existed,"

Usenet existed over 10 years before websites, and are basically identical to a blog. Berners Lee didn't invent the Internet which is much older than the worldwide web.

Mar 9, 2014 at 11:47 PM | Unregistered CommenterRob Burton

I wouldn't agree that "Usenet … are [sic] basically identical to a blog". Got any usage stats compared to WUWT? And which forum would that be, dealing with climate science and policy?

Mar 9, 2014 at 11:56 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Drake

Nobody with a functioning brain denies that human activity influences local climate, Chandra. Planting or clearing trees, the urban heat effect, etc, etc.

Most (but not all) CAGW sceptics agree that CO2 probably affects the climate too.

The question is how much, and what (if anything) we can or should do about it.

Your trolling is tiresome in the extreme.

Mar 10, 2014 at 12:15 AM | Registered Commenterjohanna