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Discussion > Current climate policy is pointless – we need a new approach

Roger Harrabin yesterday on the BBC web site. The context's too painful to reproduce but the finale's a corker:

The organisers are delighted by the breadth of applicants. But among them is a young woman whose experience counsels caution: Christina Ora from Solomon Islands has already addressed climate negotiators in 2009.

She told them: “I was born in 1992. You have been negotiating all my life (on climate change). Stop negotiating away our future.”

Her address was made to delegates at the disastrous Copenhagen climate summit. Listening to impassioned youth is one thing: changing current economic policies to combat a risk of uncertain magnitude is another.

It was the adjective disastrous that struck me. Isn't that a rather biased qualifier?

Still, "changing current economic policies to combat a risk of uncertain magnitude is another [thing entirely]" is more like it. I thought Robin's reaction might be fun.

Aug 30, 2014 at 5:54 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Drake

Well done for noticing this, Richard. Maybe Roger Harrabin (and the BBC?) is beginning to have his (its?) doubts. To even hint that it might be unwise to change economic policy when the reason for so doing was uncertain is a small step towards accepting my view about the pointlessness of "climate action". Or maybe I'm being over optimistic? As for that "disastrous" - well, it was certainly disastrous for many, not least for the BBC in view of its position on AGW at the time. Maybe that's what he meant.

Sep 1, 2014 at 9:21 AM | Registered CommenterRobin Guenier

Yep, disastrous for them but delightful for us. I still want the BBC to reflect our view far more in such statements - not least because it's the true humanitarian one.

Sep 1, 2014 at 10:02 AM | Registered CommenterRichard Drake

Of more interest to me there were the five comments elevated to the noble status of "Editor's Picks". I could scarcely believe my eyes. I have always defended the BBC, 'cos I always argue that it is obliged to be even handed, but I'm not sure I can maintain that position any more. As far as I can tell, four of the five comments should fall foul of the "House Rules" (because they are abusive and discriminatory). The fifth is little better. If commenters used such language about any other group their comments would be scoured from the record. Were an editor to raise such comments to primacy, that would probably be worthy of dismissal. But because the target is climate skeptics rather than some other group the situation is quite different.

I'm quite cross.

Sep 1, 2014 at 11:06 AM | Unregistered CommenterJit

Richard: you're right to draw attention to the humanitarian aspect of all this. And, taking that and my pointlessness observation and the "Malala" analogy, the New York climate summit delegates really should be hearing from a young African mother. Just image the impact of her venting her frustration at world leaders over how the lives of her babies were threatened from having to live in proximity to "renewable" energy from burning dung and wood for cooking and warmth. Compare that, she might say, with her "sisters" in China who, because of the availability of cheap reliable energy from fossil fuels, had access, not only to healthy cooking and warming facilities, but to clean water, proper sanitation, fresh food, adequate health care, better education, etc. Why, she might ask, should her children have any hope of a better life destroyed because comfortable people in the West, people who take reliable energy for granted, are obsessed by fashionable concerns about climate change?

That would have a massive impact - potentially with world-wide repercussions. But it ain't gonna happen. More's the pity.

PS to Jit: you're right to be cross. But it's getting away from the topic of this thread. stewgreen has a thread on BBC bias here. Perhaps you might make your point there?

Sep 1, 2014 at 1:16 PM | Registered CommenterRobin Guenier

You've got me thinking about (at least a video of) that young African mother. Extremely good idea. Will mull that over.

Sep 1, 2014 at 2:38 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Drake

In launching the UK's climate strategy today, Ed Davey criticised other countries' progress and "regrettable examples of backsliding". He commented:

"When countries see they are behind the pack, they will get worried.”
Hmm ... is it possible to have a pack of one?

Seems we're back with the Solitary Lemming.

Sep 9, 2014 at 4:43 PM | Registered CommenterRobin Guenier

Also worthy of note today in the run-up to New York was Greenhouse gas levels rising at fastest rate since 1984 on the BBC website. Two things struck me, the first the utter (and unwarranted, Judy Curry and many others would say) certainty here:

… if you look at the temperature profile in the ocean, the heat is going in the oceans," said Oksana Tarasova, chief of the atmospheric research division at the WMO.

Strictly a point about the science but what a woeful example of no-expression-of-uncertainty about a highly unverified hypothesis, to try and shore up global agreement. And on that there's a hilarious omission in the climax of the piece:

The world's political leaders will gather in New York on 23 September for a special summit called by UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon.

The hope is that this meeting will kick-start longstanding negotiations that aim to deliver a new international climate change by the end of 2015.

A new international climate change by the end of 2015? Now that's what I call a really special summit, secretary general. But no more unlikely than the agreement by 2015 Matt McGrath presumably meant to say.

Sep 9, 2014 at 7:46 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Drake

Robin
The article you link to states:

“Over the past year leaders in Tokyo, Ottawa and Canberra have backed away from accepting tougher greenhouse gas cuts – a situation the UK suggests is untenable. UK energy secretary Ed Davey criticised these “regrettable examples of backsliding” at the report launch, which was held at the offices of insurance firm Aviva.”
The New Statesman has an article on Davey’s announcement which links to a ministerial press handout which states, in the kind of barbaric prose you’d expect from people who have difficulty connecting two ideas without using a stapler:
“It is not just governments around the world who want an agreement; there is widespread support from businesses, NGOs and campaign groups, many have contributed to this publication.”
We have a minister who not only criticises democratic govenments for “backsliding” (i.e. taking doing what their electors want) but is proud of the fact that he gets his reports written for him by “businesses, NGOs and campaign groups”.

Sep 10, 2014 at 8:14 AM | Registered Commentergeoffchambers

Robin/geoffchambers
It's the little things that tell the story, isn't it?
“regrettable examples of backsliding”
"held at the offices of insurance firm Aviva.”
“not just governments ...[but] ...widespread support from businesses, NGOs and campaign groups.”
No mention of the general public; you know, the people that Davey is supposedly answerable to.

(Love the concept of having difficulty connecting two ideas without using a stapler. Magic!)

Sep 10, 2014 at 8:41 AM | Registered CommenterMike Jackson

Reading Charles Moore's article in the Telegraph this morning I felt I should perhaps sue him for breach of copyright:

Even if Britain and the whole of the EU were to stick to our emissions targets (which we surely won’t), and to hit them (which, actually, we can’t), we would still not come anywhere close to what we are told is needed to save the planet. This is for a very simple reason: the rest of the world won’t do it.

Last year, carbon emissions per head in China exceeded those of Britain for the first time, and China has more than 20 times as many heads as we do. The EU is responsible for less than 10 per cent of global emissions, so when we set our targets we knew – and said – that we were in no position to stop global warming. The point was to set a lead which others would follow.

They haven’t. Since the debacle of the Copenhagen Summit of 2009 when the developed world failed to persuade the developing one to join our saintly masochism, this has been obvious.

Well said, that man!

Oct 18, 2014 at 8:05 AM | Registered CommenterRobin Guenier

You can take the credit Robin. If Charles Moore didn't read your comments here, he maybe read them at the Conversation or the RTCC or the New Statesman. Or if he didn't read them, maybe someone he talks to did. There must be lots of intelligent people who are not climate sceptics who frequent other dissident blogs for the same reason we hang round BishopHill – they're fed up with the lack of rational discussion in the mainstream media on a widening number of subjects.
I'm sure your strategy is the right one – keep harping on about an issue on which you're well informed and sure of your ground with patient, polite interventions in as many different media as possible.
If a couple of dozen of the BH Boys did the same, we might get our message out into the mainstream.

Oct 18, 2014 at 10:27 AM | Registered Commentergeoffchambers

Robin Guenier

This is a long thread but I’ve come to it as a new boy this week so may I go back to basics and apologise if I’m repeating what others have said.

You recommend that we focus on policy not science which means
Prioritising a strong economy
Ensure reliable, affordable energy
Focus on adaptation to any climate change

Whist I can agree with those as objectives, I have to say with respect that I think that they are really a restatement of the problem. As the old Irish joke goes, if I were going to Dublin I wouldn’t start from here. Yes, reliable, affordable energy is a necessary component of a strong economy but there are many other requirements for economic growth over and above energy and climate policy. The point here, I think is that a strong economy is desirable irrespective of our climate policy stance but is necessary to fund any adaptation including new, cost-effective clean energy technologies.

Surely the underlying difficulty with climate policy is that to date our policy makers have ignored the links between the costs of climate policies and economic performance. Hence their indulgence in what Charles Moore refers to as saintly masochism.
Politicians have allowed themselves to be persuaded that climate change is a present and immediate danger justifying massive expenditures on mitigation and consequent damage to our economy. In our post-democratic political system this comes about because policy makers are captured by the lobbying of environmental NGOs and crony capitalists. In an era when environmentalists seek to ban someone as eminent as Lord Lawson from speaking on the BBC exactly how, in practice, are we to counter the Green Blob Lobby? The EU Blob, of course, is correspondingly even more powerful.

Regrettably, I do not see politicians voluntarily renouncing their present policy stance because their commitments to date have been so absolute and uncritical and it has all cost so much. For them to perform a volte-face at this stage would be unthinkable. Let’s face it, the politician responsible for the Climate Change Act could be Prime Minister next year!

Unfortunately only a major crisis can change things. This could take the form of blackouts in the UK because of lack of capacity in a very cold winter or shortages of Russian gas in the EU. Of course the innocent would suffer most, the sick, elderly and poor. Not a thought to relish but I see no other way. Perhaps someone can offer a more optimistic scenario?

Oct 24, 2014 at 12:00 PM | Unregistered CommenterMike Atway

You are right, Mike Atway. While the unelected, undemocratic, anti-human “charities” hold the undivided attention of politicians and the media, there is going to be no escape from the slaughter of the innocents that is soon to occur, especially if Europe gets the conditions that North America had last winter.

Sadly, I feel that it is only when that does happen, and even the most blinkered of supporters realise that poverty and hypothermia are not pleasant options, we will be stuck with the astro-turfers for a long time, yet. The likes of Greenp*$$, Enemies of Man, and the WWtF may have started with noble intentions, but their malevolent tentacles have now reached deep into almost every institution, poisoning the prospects of humanity’s future on this planet.

Oct 24, 2014 at 12:34 PM | Registered CommenterRadical Rodent

Mike Atway, do not underestimate the skills of politicians. I sense that even now they are cautiously retreating from where the green-spleen has moved them to in recent decades. I don't see a Road-to-Damascus moment in policy reversal, but nor was there one when policy was moving in the other direction.

The political speeches will be tailored to placating the green mob, even as the politicians quietly implement other policies. The froth on the ferment of today's EU meeting will, I think, quickly subside. China will continue to eat Europe's lunch.

Oct 24, 2014 at 5:19 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart

Mike Atway:

I agree with much of what you say. But I suggest you may have rather missed my point. To put that into context, here's an extract from an early comment I made on this thread:

Of course much depends on the definition of the challenge. For me it’s this: persuading Government that, in view of international political reality, it’s in the UK’s best interest to abandon its pointless obsession with reducing emissions and instead prioritise a strong economy, underpinned by reliable affordable energy.

So that’s the challenge – and it seems that it’s one with which you agree. OK – but I believe that the only way it can be achieved is by bypassing scientific debate and focusing on the harsh reality that, even if ‘climate change is a present and immediate danger’, there’s nothing at all the UK can do about it – for the reasons I spelled out in my opening post. That way, I believe, offers at least some possibility that politicians might change their policies without having to perform a public volte-face on their understanding of the science. Indeed, I might argue, if their interpretation of the science is valid, that’s all the more reason for changing policy so as to provide the UK with at least some prospect of dealing with what they must believe is a pending catastrophe.

It’s my view that continuing what is obviously a hopeless crusade to persuade politicians that they’re misunderstanding the science offers no such possibility of policy change. In other words, my argument at this stage is really with the ‘sceptic warriors’. As I said before:

… it’s all about whether people really want to bring about a critical change in our society – or whether they’re more interested in a fascinating intellectual struggle.

You ask for a ‘more optimistic scenario’. Well, mine is based on the developing reality that’s there’s no longer any prospect of a global GHG reduction deal in Paris next year. This was confirmed yet again yesterday with the failure of the last of this year’s three ‘crucial’ UN negotiating sessions in Bonn (LINK1 LINK2), despite absurd claims that EU ‘leadership’ would make a difference: LINK. I’m sure that over the next year – as we approach the Paris conference – this reality will become increasingly clear. The objective of anyone who truly wants to change UK policy must, I believe, be to keep drawing attention to that harsh truth. I’m sure it offers at least the prospect of our politicians using it as an excuse for, as michael hart put it, ‘retreating from where the green-spleen has moved them to in recent decades’.

Oct 25, 2014 at 6:06 PM | Registered CommenterRobin Guenier

Robin Guenier
Thank you for your detailed response to my post. Perhaps I should have expressed myself more clearly. My doubts regarding a volte-face referred to changes in policy not in the understanding of science. In policy terms both the present coalition government and its Labour predecessors have intervened continually to encourage renewables and to run down our fossil fuel generating capacity. The government’s official rationale for this was that fossil fuel prices would rise because of increasing scarcity so renewables needed subsidy until they became price competitive at those higher price levels. Of course, fossil fuels prices are falling and the world has plenty of coal, gas and oil. So there’s plenty of cheap fuel out there but the UK increasingly lacks the generating capacity to burn it. The generating companies have been deterred from investing by those same policies and Miliband’s promise of a price freeze only makes the situation worse.
I take your point that the inevitable failure of next year’s Paris talks would be a good time for the Government to change course. The Green Blob would be up in arms, but more importantly, would investors believe the change of heart after everything that’s happened? Investors in new generating capacity would want credible guarantees of a stable long-term energy regime. That could be achieved but it would take time and time is running out. We still face a capacity crunch in 2016. That’s why I fear the lessons may be learned the hard way through power cuts though I take no satisfaction from my pessimism.
So, in summary, I agree that we need to push policy change rather than argue about “the science”. Where we disagree is that I can see a harder landing than your scenario. I hope you’re right and I’m wrong but I won’t hold my breath.

Oct 25, 2014 at 8:58 PM | Unregistered CommenterMike Atway

I hope, Mike, that I haven't been giving the impression that my proposed route out of this mess would be easy. I refer only to 'some possibility' of a political change of heart and suggest only that 'it offers at least the prospect of' of change. I'm trying to get traction on this because IMO the alternative - continual harping on about the 'science' - offers no such prospect. The landing may well be hard. But that's better than a disastrous crash.

It's interesting that alarmists don't seem to know how to counter my approach. For example, my comments on their websites sometimes languish in moderation for so long that the issue under consideration is no longer topical. RTCC is especially fond of this solution - although they did post a recent comment here - no one responded. (Interestingly, I was proved wholly right when on Friday the Bonn negotiations ended in failure despite the EU 'deal' - needless to say, my post pointing this out has not yet appeared.) Another approach is to ignore me altogether. You may have come across 'The Conversation' - an online forum for alarmist academics. Any sceptic posting there is immediately tackled (sometimes with aggression, sometimes courtesy). But I'm ignored. See this and this. There's another example here - where this time I'm the sole commentator on a website (ECIU) that was set up to support 'informed debate on energy and climate change issues in the UK'.

I can't decide whether I should be encouraged or discouraged by this treatment.

Oct 26, 2014 at 5:41 PM | Registered CommenterRobin Guenier

Robin, we are both realists so, of course, we agree that it's not going to be easy to sort out the mess. A taste of what we're up against is given by Ed Davey's comments in today's Telegraph. As I commented on the blog, his so-called contingency plans to keep the lights on are actually industrial power cuts subsidised from the public purse.
I had previously seen your comments at The Conversation but not the others. I'm appalled by the arrogance of these people who argue that the UK and EU are offering leadership to the developing countries. They imply that climate change is "the white man's burden" as if there are these poor benighted people who need the Europeans to show them the way to go. These self-styled progressives are actually old- fashioned colonialists.

Do keep up the good work of flummoxing them.

Oct 26, 2014 at 8:47 PM | Unregistered CommenterMike Atway

The five Tory MPs (Christopher Chope, Philip Davies, Peter Lilley, Andrew Tyrie and Ann Widdecombe) who voted against the Climate Change Bill in 2008 have issued the following statement:

“The five of us have seen nothing in the intervening six years to change our view that the Climate Change Act was a profound mistake. The Act was intended as an example to the world which would lead to a binding global agreement. Despite a succession of conferences devoted to this objective, no such global agreement has proved possible.

“The UK accounts for less than 2 per cent of global emissions. It is time to bring to an end the pointless damage being inflicted on British households, British industry and the British economy by the unilateral commitment to unnecessarily expensive energy, and to suspend the Climate Change Act’s unilateral targets until such time as a binding global agreement has been secured. A full reconsideration of the deeply flawed economic methodology to support the Act is also now urgently needed. This served as the justification for so many regulatory and other measures that has forced up energy prices for millions of householders, without any clear long term benefit.”

They're right of course - although 'unnecessarily expensive energy' isn't the only consequence of the Act that should concern them.

The story can be found here - behind a paywall.

Oct 29, 2014 at 8:39 AM | Registered CommenterRobin Guenier

Yeah, that was an important moment Robin. Re the opinion polls you and Geoff have been discussing on Unthreaded, I was interested to read Why Republicans Keep Telling Everyone They’re Not Scientists in the New York Times as a reaction to the current yawns from the public. It's not what we tend to say on climate blogs but it sounds pretty canny from where I sit - and in line with your tactics here.

Oct 31, 2014 at 6:42 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Drake