Some might say the Ukraine is a far away country and what happens there doesn't affect us. But there's a lot of sabre-rattling at the moment (or is it dick-waving?) with trade sanctions being threatened.

In the short-term, Western European countries are more able to find alternative supplies, like LNG shipped by tanker from Qatar, Algeria or Nigeria. Slovakia and the Czech Republic are importing more gas from Germany to preserve buffer stocks. The UK, Spain and Ireland might not be importing gas from Russia, but will be competing for the alternative sources.

But strategically, and for the long-term, will more countries revert to coal and oil, with the Ukraine as the excuse?

Will the UK domestic suppliers use this as yet another excuse to raise prices?

Ironically, here in the UK, the Didcot A coal-fired power station is still due for demolition.

There is a parallel with the situation in the late 1970s/early 1980s. Iran cut its exports completely in the aftermath of the ousting of the Shah - which were 5 m b/d in 1976. The wars with Iraq then ensured that production from them remained at around 3.5m b/d for quite some years afterwards. This long lasting hiatus was more than made up for by the expansion of production in other parts of the world - so much so that by 1985, OPEC market share had collapsed way below the ability of member countries to produce, which led to a price war and the collapse of oil prices in early 1986.

If you look at the speed with which the US has developed shale, and at the resource estimates around the world, it should be easy to see that the market response would soon leave Russia with the prospect of much lower revenues for its gas when it eventually decided to re-join the world market. A move to cut off supplies widely would prove counter-productive in the long term - not just the short term - for the Russians. It is therefore much more likely that they will restrict actions to those calculated to help with the next limited political objective.

Incidentally, in 1982 Sheikh Zaki Yamani, the Saudi oil minister, was deeply troubled by the prospect of competition from other energy sources (including from e.g. coal), despite the apparent grip on the market that OPEC had at the time. Advisers at the most senior levels tend to think ahead rather more than the average journalist.

For the countries in the EU the short term effect will,in my opinion, be like the 1973 Oil Embargo. I recall being issued with but never using a book of rationing tokens. I never actually ran out of fuel but came close a couple of times. The recession that OPEC created hit them nearly as hard in the end I think and was the trigger for France going nuclear in electricity generation.

The ultimate winner may well be the USA, as in the two world wars, becoming the supplier of choice to the EU for "fossil fuels". Longer term in the UK it may see the end of renewables and a sensible energy policy, but that will depend on the result of the next general election.

On a personal note, neither the 1973 oil crisis nor the 3 day week of the same time really affected my mother. She lived in a house without electricity until moving to sheltered accommodation in the late 1990s. A stock of paraffin and wood ensured heat and light, and radio entertainment. I fear a lot of other people may well end up in similar circumstances if the potential prefect storm of Putin, Competition inquiries, price freezes and a ban on fracking comes together with a cold winter either in Europe or North America.

PS I wonder how those Didcot equipment that got moved to the new coal stations in Germany is working ?

Didcot was the station that supplied the copious power required by the JET experiments at Culham. It is an irony that in closing Didcot there is now no grid route that could manage the power flow needed for fusion research.

Russia and China signed a 30-year gas supply contract on Wednesday worth a total of more than $400 billion,

Russia's Gazprom chairman has said "It can be assumed that the signing of the contract will affect gas prices on the European market,"

I don't think that means a drop in prices, do you?

Or is Russia expecting that Europe will have major shale gas supplies sooner or later, and hedging its bets?

See http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/23/us-russia-forum-gazprom-china-idUSBREA4M08320140523