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Discussion > What do the GWPF think about the ASC 'Managing Climate Risks to Well-Being and the Economy' report?

ATTP
The last time I was in southern France (Marseille to be exact) I felt quite at home. Admittedly it is possible to sit outside more of the year than in Scotland and the weather tends to be more predictable or to be more exact Méteo France makes a better job of forecasting and updating its forecasts than we are used to in the UK.
Some of the plants would have precious little chance of surviving even the average mid-England winter but given that an incredible number of flowers that thrive in the UK (and in the Mediterranean region) have come from extremes as far apart as sub-tropical Africa and the high Himalaya they seem to have adapted themselves pretty well.
Certainly the houses tend to be constructed more with a view to keeping the heat out rather than in, as they are in many parts of France. They also seem to very good at keeping the heat in during the winter, however. Better than many UK houses.
The following stats, courtesy of holidayweather.com may be of interest:

July is the hottest month in Marseille with an average temperature of 24°C (75°F) and the coldest is January at 7°C (45°F) with the most daily sunshine hours at 12 in July. The wettest month is October with an average of 70mm of rain.
July is the hottest month in London with an average temperature of 19°C (66°F) and the coldest is January at 7°C (45°F) with the most daily sunshine hours at 8 in July. The wettest month is October with an average of 71mm of rain.
I'm not really quite sure what we are supposed to be getting our knickers in a twist about.

Jul 9, 2014 at 6:57 PM | Registered CommenterMike Jackson

Mike,
So, as long as everyone can move to Southern France we'll all be fine? Spent any time in Morocco? I was there 2 years ago. It was 49.6oC.


I'm not really quite sure what we are supposed to be getting our knickers in a twist about.

I don't know. A planet with more people at any one time than in all of human history and a climate never before experienced by the human species. Nothing I guess. Just hope for the best? If things do go wrong, there's always Southern France (isn't there a line in Casablanca that goes something like that?)

Jul 9, 2014 at 7:48 PM | Unregistered CommenterAnd Then There's Physics

Jul 9, 2014 at 6:53 PM | rhoda

This part of rural, The Limousin, also has a wonderful device the volet. This can be closed or partially closed on the warmest days, which combined with the thick stone walls of the old houses means the inside remains relatively cool on the warmest of days. Temperatures reach low thirties fairly frequently most summers. The other benefit is that they can be closed at night which combined with heavy curtains can retain heat in winter. In late autumn and early spring the temperature in our living room can rise by 3-4'C in the coarse of an evening. This is quite useful as winters here tend to be colder than central England.

My brother in Perthshire has had internal shutters fitted as a result of our experience over here. This was primarily for winter warmth as a heatwave in Perthshire is an average summer's day in Limousin. Should they be lucky enough to experience a bit of global warming I'm sure he is clever enough to shut them and keep the summer heat at bay.

Jul 9, 2014 at 7:51 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Wow ATTP has found her way to this site and is now crossing swords with rhoda. Good luck with that ATTP.

rhoda you are going to confuse ATTP by sticking to reality. We're supposed to be frightened of climate change and here are you dragging reality into the forebodings by comparing our current climate with that that already exists south of us. And guess what? It's not frightening. She's probably consulting SkS now to get a response so watch this space.

BTW I agree 100%, I've used the temporal issue to emphasise that even if there were problems in the future we'd have enough time to adapt given our technological process. So as ATTP condescendingly said,"It's about whether or not we'll start to experience extreme events more often in the future than we have in the past." which is the message du jour. So by applying experience to this statement let's examine how many extreme events we have now. Well, none this year I know of, and none last year. Frightening.

You could follow it up on her site, but here invisible friend Rebecca would delete you. Try it though.

Jul 9, 2014 at 7:54 PM | Unregistered Commentergeronimo

ATTP, the theory is that Oxfordshire will be like the south of /France with a temp rise as predicted for the end of the century. Never mind the timing though, when it comes we in Oxfordshire will be able to handle it. It just ain't scary, is it. The folks in Siberia and Canada will love it. Or would if it ever happened.
that is suggected is likely to make us less able to face any future problem.

All the scary stuff in your last paragraph is failing to make my flesh creep. Now cold, that would be to worry about.

Are you introducing population as a problem? Can the windfarms fix that? Being better off would, but that is not part of the usual CAGW agenda, is it?

Jul 9, 2014 at 7:58 PM | Registered Commenterrhoda

And Then There's Physics

and a climate never before experienced by the human species.

Are you absolutely sure about that statement?
From Wiki
The earliest documented members of the genus Homo are Homo habilis which evolved around 2.3 million years ago. Archaic Homo sapiens, the forerunner of anatomically modern humans, evolved between 400,000 and 250,000 years ago.

Then look at this wiki chart http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geologic_temperature_record#mediaviewer/File:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png

Jul 9, 2014 at 7:59 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

ATTP: "I don't know. A planet with more people at any one time than in all of human history and a climate never before experienced by the human species."

Make your mind up ATTP: Is it temperature change or population?
As for Morocco? There's no equivalence. The alarmists would have us believe that we will - eventually - experience a rise in average temp (whatever that is) of 1-2 Deg C. If you go to Morocco you have to contend with a near doubling. Do try to keep things in proportion. Adaptation is not difficult (I speak as a person with family living in France and Cyprus (having experienced both myself). They survive.

Jul 9, 2014 at 8:02 PM | Registered CommenterHarry Passfield

Geronimo,
It's Rachel, not Rebecca, and I don't know why you think she's invisible, she has her own blog. It's not hard to find. I think it's on my blogroll.


We're supposed to be frightened of climate change

You're not really supposed to be anything. You can be whatever you want. If you think that all we have to worry about is the UK turning into Southern France, then good for you. Maybe you'll even be right (although Richard Betts can give you a better idea of the likely impact of climate change on the UK). Those in Morocco, Western Australia, India, ..... may not be quite as pleased with the changes they might face, but - hey - that's not your problem. Right?

Jul 9, 2014 at 8:04 PM | Unregistered CommenterAnd Then There's Physics

"A planet with more people at any one time than in all of human history..."

Now how many seconds in the last 5 billion years would that statement not have been true. You really ought to consider what you're saying. "...and a climate never before experienced by the human species."

"...and a climate never before experienced by the human species."

What on earth does that mean? Are Inuit and Africans, Thais, Indonesians Europeans experiencing a different climate. I'm not, what do you believe has changed in countries throughout the globe?

Sorry ATTP, but although there's no censorship on this site, it isn't an echo chamber and if you turn up with slogans instead of arguments you're going to be challenged.

So do tell, when was the population of humans a constant? And what sort of climate change has occurred to make the current climate unique in history.

Jul 9, 2014 at 8:08 PM | Unregistered Commentergeronimo

I didn't think tropical spots were expected to have the same increase. Generally excpet for dry areas the tropics can blow off a couple of watts/sq.m in a few minutes, dump it straight to space. So that's not scary. The folks who live in hot, dry areas, assuming they stay dry and get hotter? Well you can't really live in those places now except with technology. They'll need a bit more. Not many of those folks anyway. They'll adapt, if it is worth living there. Not scary. And Australia does not think it is their problem, so why should I?


The thing about adapting is, it works for uncertain futures. If something comes which we didn't predict and can't adapt to, we're screwed. Like an ice age. That is scary. Warm, not so much.

Daft touchy-feely what-about-the-children arguments based on FUD and dubious physics, also not so much.

Jul 9, 2014 at 8:15 PM | Registered Commenterrhoda

Oh b*gger!! ATTP's done it again. Just like over at the DT, she/he/it grabs a thread and manages to get it side-tracked with unqualified posts (or SkS c&p). OK, she/he/it manages to add the odd ref or link but I have found that quite often the links are rubbish, usually bombing the reader with tons of data, if they can be bothered to follow them (the whole of AR5 ocean heat content anyone? - she/he/it did that once). We are being distracted.

However, the essence of what has gone on in this late discussion can be distilled and the keen mind of Richard Betts can see that; it would be good to get his comments relative to our discussions about adaptation. That's what this is about.

Jul 9, 2014 at 8:16 PM | Registered CommenterHarry Passfield

And Richard's view of climate effects in the UK? I've taunted him with the Oxford/France thing before. He did not (in my biased memory) contradict that comparison or the conclusion.

He's a nice chap. I've met him. But I do not regard his opinions as freely held as one would hope. He has to remember the met office and the IPCC every time he speaks. He is not about to go against them, and I don't ask him to.

Of course when I write here, I have to remember my big oil sponsors- NOT.

Jul 9, 2014 at 8:21 PM | Registered Commenterrhoda

Geronimo,
Do you really dispute that there are more human beings alive today than at any time in human history? I believe that that is a defensible statement. (you do also realise that homo sapiens have only been on the planet for about 10^5 years, despite the planet being almost 5 Gyr old).

You do realise that when I used the term "climate" I meant global climate, not local climate. I know you may not like it but there is evidence to suggest that we are moving into a state where the globally averaged temperature of the planet is higher than it has been for all of human history.


Sorry ATTP, but although there's no censorship on this site, it isn't an echo chamber and if you turn up with slogans instead of arguments you're going to be challenged.

I have no problem being challenged, but can you at least try and make some kind of sense. Mentioning the age of the planet somehow makes me think that you think that because the planet's been here for 4.6 Gyr, everything's going to be fine. Just to be clear, it's not the planet specifically that we're worried about. This isn't a difficult concept.


it isn't an echo chamber

Please convince me that's true. It certainly seems that way.

Jul 9, 2014 at 8:22 PM | Unregistered CommenterAnd Then There's Physics

ATTP: "You do realise that when I used the term "climate" I meant global climate, not local climate"

What on earth (see what I did there?) is 'global climate'? define it, if you can. And don't say anything that includes the characters 'IPPC'.

Jul 9, 2014 at 8:30 PM | Registered CommenterHarry Passfield

Harry,
I believe I did define it. The global average temperature being higher than it's been in all of human history.

Sandy,
Whether obvious or not, I did mean Homo Sapiens.

Well, everyone, this has been fun, but the football is about to start and there's only so much time I can spend talking with people who's view on this issue is "I'll be allright Jack". You probably will be, but that is rather beside the point.

Jul 9, 2014 at 8:35 PM | Unregistered CommenterAnd Then There's Physics

ATTP: Since when has the GAT (whatever that is meant to be - I know it's a 'measurement') been climate? I asked you to define a global climate. It doesn't exist. It's made up of lots and lots of Local Climates (at least).

Jul 9, 2014 at 8:38 PM | Registered CommenterHarry Passfield

And Then There's Physics
From Wiki (my bold)


Archaic Homo sapiens, the forerunner of anatomically modern humans, evolved between 400,000 and 250,000 years ago.[10][11] Recent DNA evidence suggests that several haplotypes of Neanderthal origin are present among all non-African populations, and Neanderthals and other hominids, such as Denisova hominin may have contributed up to 6% of their genome to present-day humans, suggestive of a limited inter-breeding between these species.[12][13][14] Anatomically modern humans evolved from archaic Homo sapiens in the Middle Paleolithic, about 200,000 years ago.[15] The transition to behavioral modernity with the development of symbolic culture, language, and specialized lithic technology happened around 50,000 years ago according to many anthropologists[16] although some suggest a gradual change in behavior over a longer time span.[17]

Then check the original chart again, I would suggest you got that wrong too, despite the weasel words. For confirmation of your error you could look at the second chart here, beware of the Years Before Present
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/last_400k_yrs.html

Jul 9, 2014 at 9:09 PM | Unregistered CommenterSandyS

Sorry I've missed the evening fun (not football but cricket).
What ATTP seems not to understand and what climate groupies (which by my definition includes Krebs and Deben and others who make a nice living of the coat tails of the scientists) probably do know but don't want to admit to is that the human frame is capable of surviving in a wide range of climatic variables.
To begin with mankind is a tropical species in the sense that below about the level of Marseille's average summer temperature he (hereafter deemed to include 'she' as well) needs clothes in order to be comfortable. He also needs some form of clothing and the sense — unless he is a mad dog or an Englishman — to avoid the heat of the day as far as possible in places like Morocco.
But I defy anyone reading this blog to walk out through his front door tomorrow morning, take a deep breath and tell me to within a degree or so what the temperature is. And if in 10 years time it's half-a-degree warmer who will notice? I will hazard a guess that people used to living in the tropics are even less likely to notice a half-degree change then those living in temperate climates.
Then we have the hypothesis that warming will be greatest near the poles and least near the equator which makes the likely temperature in Africa or India of even less concern still.
Then when we start to look at the whole question of adaptation we find these two quotes which Richard Betts has thrown up for our delectation:

Although there is a high degree of confidence that the world’s climate is changing as a result of human activity, the precise impacts on the UK are still somewhat uncertain. Therefore the emphasis of adaptation to climate change has to be on increasing the nation’s resilience to a range of possible futures.
and
As our report highlights, there is more to be done to counter the increasing risks of severe weather that are likely to be associated with climate change. As well as making vital infrastructure services more resilient to flooding and storms, the country needs to adapt homes and other buildings so they are suitable for higher summer temperatures.
Pure, unadulterated, 24-carat, meaningless waffle! And the little bit that isn't meaningless is plain wrong.
We have (allegedly) seen a steady increase (I dispute the "steady" bit but it seems to be this week's shorthand) in temperature since 1880 so we really ought to have seen this severe weather that's (allegedly) associated with it. Have we?
Why are we to adapt homes so they are suitable for higher summer temperatures when there has been no warming for the last 17 years and what warming is forecast is likely to be of the order of a couple of degrees C? Barely noticeable.
What has been noticeable on the other hand has been four stinglingly cold winters that no-one was expecting. Where are the plans to adapt homes to make them suitable for that contingency?
I think we're being led by the nose here.

Jul 9, 2014 at 9:41 PM | Registered CommenterMike Jackson

And Then There's Physics (Jul 9, 2014 at 7:48 PM)

If things do go wrong, there's always Southern France (isn't there a line in Casablanca that goes something like that?)
I think it was:
“Whatever happens, we still have Paris”
and it was spoken by Richard Betts (played by Humphrey Bogart) to Dame Julia Slingo (played by Ingrid Bergman) in Copenhagen in 2009, referring to next year's COP21 Climate Conference.

Jul 9, 2014 at 10:35 PM | Registered Commentergeoffchambers

Hi all

Sorry to disappear, I was out at the village quiz (we won!)

Rhoda, the Oxfordshire/South of France comparison is not a very realistic. At local scales, climate change is about more than just adding a few degrees of temperature, it's about how weather may change and how this relates to the more general patterns of weather and climate. This includes changes in rainfall and (possibly) storminess, and also changes in sea level.

For example, Southern France is more of a Mediterranean climate, close to the downward-moving air masses over North Africa which tend to suppress rainfall - that's why it's mostly nice and dry, warm, and sunny, and hence why we Brits like going there. In contrast, the British Weather tends to be dominated by weather systems coming in off the Atlantic, often depending on the position of the jet stream (as the ASC report mentions). We don't know how (or even whether) the jet stream will shift more in particular seasons as part of a changing climate, so it's not clear whether Britain will get wetter or drier in particular seasons. Climate models tend to simulate wetter winters in Northern Europe, but give a range of results for summer rainfall, from wetter to drier. It's pretty clear that mean sea level will continue to rise, but the damaging very high levels associated with storm surges obviously depends on whether we get more/less and stronger/weaker storms, which is an open question right now.

Hence much of climate adaptation is a matter of judging what kind of changes we can afford to wait and see on, and what we need to think ahead about. As an example, much of farming can probably adapt fairly rapidly - farmers are generally quite good at being flexible - but things like long-term infrastructure may need more forward planning of they take decades to put in place, and hence their design tends to be done with a risk assessment approach considering a range of conditions and whether the expense of preparing for a rare or unlikely event is worthwhile.

Mike, you are quite right that it should not be assumed that things will just get steadily warmer and that resilience against cold is no longer needed. We will still get the natural warm and cold spells and wet and dry spells, even runs of these - but over decades the relative odds of these things will probably change.

Jul 9, 2014 at 10:37 PM | Registered CommenterRichard Betts

Welcome back Richard. Glad you won your quiz-night. Couldn't have been any questions on AGW then. [JOKE!]

I think what I get from your latest comment is that the AGW of 15 years ago, when sceptics were attacked for confusing weather for climate, has morphed into the established mantra that weather really is climate. The thing is, I can't recall all this stuff being claimed in the day.

Jul 9, 2014 at 10:55 PM | Registered CommenterHarry Passfield

Adaptation should be to an expected future event, not to speculation. When the climate community talk about increased uncertainty they mean there has been a divergence between their expectations based on climate models and actual outturn. There should have been more high temperature events like in Europe 2003, and in Britain, less extreme cold events. Sea level rise should have accelerated due to peer-reviewed estimates of accelerating polar ice melt. It has not. In the US, predicted increases in hurricanes post Katrina have been wrong, as has a disappearance of Arctic sea ice in the summer of 2013. There is also a built-in bias towards false positives, whereas a more objective viewpoint would look at all the rich variety of potential climate wierding, and look at the trends.
As an ex-beancounter, I think that adaptation measures should look at expected net benefits. The expected cost of a future event is dependent on the magnitude and the likelihood. In the case of temperature change and sea level rise the rate of change over time is also important. The quality of the predictions is important. Given the track record of the climate community and the inability to learn from the past failures, current predictions of climate extremes should be discounted . The net benefits are maximised by looking at low-cost adaptive measures and with insurance.
We should learn from the experience of other fields. In finance you get better decisions by challenging assumptions and projections, not trying to bat from the same wicket. Also, by adjusting projections in the light of experience, rather than thinking up clever excuses after the event.

Jul 10, 2014 at 12:09 AM | Unregistered CommenterKevin Marshall

Richard Betts

" At local scales, climate change is about more than just adding a few degrees of temperature, it's about how weather may change and how this relates to the more general patterns of weather and climate. This includes changes in rainfall and (possibly) storminess, and also changes in sea level. ."

Could you please clarify, are you saying "weather/climate/incidence" can only be as the result of the addition of "a few degrees of temperature"?

Could "weather/climate/incidence" change not be effected by a reduction of a "few degrees of temperature"?

Could/should we expect "weather/climate/incidence" to be stable, uneventful, through a period of no change of a "few degrees of temperature"?

Would you and/or your many organisations care to put their degrees of certainty and probability on the latter "stable temperature" scenario? To be clear, are you convinced and therefore prepared to state that if temperatures (global) remain stable there will never, ever, be a future period of "extreme" weather events (i.e. outside of present actually observed data records) at any geographical location on the planet?

For further clarification I do mean this planet, Earth.

Jul 10, 2014 at 12:43 AM | Registered CommenterGreen Sand

re: Casablanca quote

It was Rick (Humphrey Bogart) speaking to Ilsa (Ingrid Bergman) as he tries to persuade her to leave for safety....


"We'll always have Paris.'

Can be spoken between any Alarmists on the verge of parting, with wistful memories of long lost days of romance.....

"We'll always have Rio" (1992)
"We'll always have Kyoto" (1997)

"We'll always have..... "

Jul 10, 2014 at 4:43 AM | Registered CommenterSkiphil

Richard


Mike, you are quite right that it should not be assumed that things will just get steadily warmer and that resilience against cold is no longer needed. We will still get the natural warm and cold spells and wet and dry spells, even runs of these - but over decades the relative odds of these things will probably change.

Is that scientific opinion based on the GCM model runs?
The model runs that are projecting a too warm climate compared to actual?

Jul 10, 2014 at 6:20 AM | Registered CommenterLord Beaverbrook