Discussion > Mann and his side order Cook visit Bristol Lew: Watt's to be done?
Richard I will have a Tuesday ticket for you tomorrow. Hope to get to the Channing, otherwise will find you at the venue.
Jo Beaumont
I'll be at the Mann talk on Tuesday. Are people meeting at Channing's before that event too?
SJF
Richard, I did have a ticket for the Friday event which I cancelled. I hadn't considered the Tuesday event - I do think John Cook comes across as an okay guy (if a little deluded) so I wouldn't mind seeing his talk. Even if Lew was in the room. I just don't think I could handle listening to Mann - the rotten core of his character would just wind me up too much.
Spence_UK
Anyone wanting a practice run with Lew's American accent and style can get it here: http://bristol.ac.uk/wun/media/videos/showcase/lewandowsky.mp4
Tickets for the Cook(ing) Show are here for a few more hours:
http://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/dogma-vs-consensus-letting-the-evidence-speak-on-climate-change-tickets-12288231431
Funding for the Lewandowsky led efforts comes from something called the World University Network which seems to be some sort of academic cartel. Objectives include:
"Develop and strategically support a limited number of potential winners at Global Challenge level"
"Increase the power of the “WUN voice” in a lobbying and ambassadorial role"
"Improve the marketing, branding and profile raising of WUN"...burning academic goals all.
http://wun.ac.uk/files/wun_strategy_map.pdf
betapug
Jo Beaumont: Thanks so much. I look forward to meeting you.
SJF:
I'll be at the Mann talk on Tuesday. Are people meeting at Channing's before that event too?
The simple answer, from my limited knowledge, is no, but, with Anthony in the country, people have obviously been trying to put together both meetings and outings (Caroline K rightly plugging a visit to Brunel's magnificent Clifton Suspension Bridge.) I'm only a minor cog in the machine trying to maximise value for our inspirational visitor but if you wanted to email me at rdrake98 on the gmail label I'd be happy to say more.
Spence_UK: Likewise, email me if you're interested in what's going on. Hearing Dr Mann has always been the lowest priority for me too. Hearing what Anthony might say from the floor - or others - in the glorious week of #AskDrMann is a different matter! But I agree it's likely to be a highly stage-managed affair. I now have a promise of a spare ticket but I'd be happy to pass it on to someone more deserving and have a chat with you over a beer instead. And you might be interested in some of the other discussions. Email me if so.
Richard Drake
Thanks Richard, I've sent you an e-mail.
SJF
I'll be in Bristol tonight possibly after 6.45pm. My Cookie seat will remain empty. Hope to be seen outside the venue. Otherwise I just hope somebody here has my email address and tells me where everybody is.
If lost I'll reach the Channings and wait 8)
omnologos
Maurizio: Thought I had it but Gmail doesn't seem to think so. Email me (see msg to SJF) with your mobile number as well if you want to be sure to know where people are afterwards. Mind you, Barry will probably have the details. And if we don't see you the Channings isn't far.
Richard Drake
Google maps seems to have the location of Channing's wrong..
Channing's is on the corner of Hanbury Road and Pembroke road, really close to the venue
Barry Woods
Thanks for the very generous offer Richard, but I don't think I will be able to make next Tuesday either. Gutted, particularly for missing this evening, as it would be great to meet up with a few friendly faces from BH (and of course meet Mr Watts in person!)
Hope everyone has a great time today!
Spence_UK
It was a great time - I think the most enjoyable of all the events I've attended with climate in mind. And that was not because of the content of the main talk but had a lot to do with the quality of the questions from sceptics, starting with Nic Lewis making some key distinctions, a hilarious one from Katabasis with the abstruse subjects of some of the papers analysed by Cook in his recent 97% paper, Neil next to me on the Argo buoys and the like. Courteous and incisive - and I have to say that Cook's responses were pretty good, as was the passionate statement at the end by the director of the Cabot Institute Rich Pancost on the necessity of the freedom to go against the flow in science. The gatherings before and after in the Channing were bonhomie at its best! It was great to meet Marcel Crok for the first time. Anthony's a great guy needless to say. Roll on Tuesday!
Richard Drake
Anthony Watts now has his report posted on the meeting and the socialising: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/20/my-report-on-the-cook-talk-in-bristol-attendees-are-invited-to-leave-their-impressions/
Very much in line with Richard's experience.
John Shade
It was great to meet everyone at the pubs last night, including David Holland, Omnologos, Anthony Watts, Richard Drake, "Bloke down the Pub", Katabasis and the Connolly's from mid-Ireleand & globalwarmingsolved.com
I did not realize it was Nic Lewis asking the first question. Cook replied by admitting that the paper only looked at agreement with the basic greenhouse gas warming hypothesis a not with the catastrophic global warming hypothesis. Yet Barak Obama seems to think that the 97% consensus refers to the latter, policy-justifying, issue.
Kevin Marshall
Did you enjoy John Cook's talk?
You can read his slides via this webpage .
Entropic man
As the real world indicators show no sign of heading into runaway catastrophe are the alarmists steadying their hysteria ?
Well next month there is another climate related lecture in this Bristol series
The Six Extinctions: Visualizing the Planetary Ecological Crisis Mon 13 October 2014, 18.00-19.30link..em "accelerating" isn't that a whopping lie ? or isn't truth important in science these days ?
"How can we understand the planetary ecological crisis today? Geologists are now considering inaugurating a new geological period — the anthropocene".."and invites reflection on life and death in the era of accelerating climate change"
stewgreen
Thanks EM, looking at the slides now. Much appreciated....
must say that Cook goes wrong right in his title, heh
it should not be "Dogma vs. Consensus"
Title should be "Dogma as Consensus"
or perhaps "Consensus as Dogma"
but I'll look forward to what he has to say anyway.....
Skiphil
Read Cook's slides. Nothing new as far as cognitive content, factual or intellectual/argumentative. All the usual ad homs about "fake" experts, that non climate scientists are unfit to judge the brilliant subtle methods and competence of climate scientists, and "Denial 101" (title of his new upcoming course!).
Continues to conflate basic agreement about AGW with "C"AGW which is not at all justified by his research.
We could have 100% agreement about the existence of some AGW, including the "at least 50%" of recent warming proviso in the past half century (or even 100-150 yrs. if one wanted to stretch it beyond plausibility and claim that), without it implying anything about catastrophic consequences, specific policy recommendations, drastic imminent actions, scaring the children about the future of humanity etc. etc.
Cook has added nothing to the debates here except dishonesty, incompetence, and misdirection (well those are nothing new on behalf of CAGW Alarmism, but Cook brings his own unique flavors).
Nice plugs for SkS and his study, previous "97%" studies etc., but only smears and misinformation about his critics.
Cook promotes only the IRRELEVANT consensus, the one that does not cover policy, imminent catastrophes, magnitude of AGW, etc.
Fundamentally, he has not made any honest, careful effort to UNDERSTAND any of the major criticisms and critics.
I don't regret missing Cook spouting this tripe, but I do regret enormously being unable to meet the bunch of BH folks who turned out! One of these days I hope to fly across the pond burning dangerous fossil fuels at a time when I might be able to join up with one of the BH gatherings!
Skiphil
Anthony Watts reports here, and there are many other comments below his report:
Skiphil
I have this vision of 20 skeptics turning up all wearing racehorse blinkers as that is one way of blending in with the alarmists who act s if they are wearing "catastrophe blinkers" ie whatever the climate indicators they refuse to consider any option other than we are going into climate catastrophe.
stewgreen
Entropic Man. Thanks for the link to Cook’s slides. I am glad to see I can still take accurate notes. However, I should point out he had a shorter set of slides during the Q&A, on global warming evidence. Instead of surface temperature trends, or even some hockey hocks, he showed the UNIPCC AR5 total heat accumulation covering from 1970. He then said that this is the equivalent to energy of 4 Hiroshima bombs per second since 1998. Next slide had the equivalent of kitten sneezes per second, with a cute picture. No real figure, like if all that energy was used to heat the oceans it would take nearly six hundred years to raise average temperatures by one degree.
The final slide was adapted John Cook’s flickering “escalator” temperature graph from his website – only last night it had cherries on with the words “cherry-picking”. It was left flickering away for about 15 minutes. If he has truly wanted to show sceptic views in a single graph, rather than a fabrication, he would have used Roy Spencer’s comparison of 73 models against measurements.
I actually enjoyed the evening. It is very difficult to try to understand views that we are opposed to, especially if they are well argued and/or present new arguments. But with John Cook he is both shallow and predictable.
Kevin Marshall
Kevin: The word that came to me very early on and throughout the presentation was infantile. But Cook and Pancost were good to Anthony in person. That counts for a lot to me. I agree with Anthony that we need much more one-to-one encounters and for his commendation of Barry Woods on this. Cook agreed with Nic about the key distinction between a bit of warming and catastrophic warming being caused by man's CO2 emissions. As I said to Nic afterwards "We really all agree!" That's how weird this stupid climate situation is. Then I got to the Channings for the second time, ran into another well-known BH contributor and he said, in effect, that through their demonisation of sceptics, expressed in Cook's presentation, albeit in a gentler style than Dr Lew, they have laid the groundwork for future atrocities. I don't know which it is. I currently think CAGW will end in a whimper. But I listen to the 'extreme' view because some of the language about deniers, in the mouths of those with political clout or links to those therewith, remains not just tedious but disturbing. It's thoroughly weird.
Richard Drake
Richard: I concur that it was somewhat infantile. However, many genuinely believe that they are trying to save the world. They just have not learnt how to understand other points of view. However, as for committing atrocities, I would not think most of those blogging would do such a thing. The major worry are the anti-fracking protesters, who will stop at nothing to get their way. However, they do not have an ideology like communism that caused most of the twentieth century atrocities, and which many found morally correct. So if the protesters try violent intimidation they will get short shrift from most of the public.
As for when will it end, it is in some respects already happening. What we saw on Friday night was the very best on offer. There is a distinct lack recently of bold predictions of catastrophe next week, or "worse than we thought" climate papers. The occasional ones (Gergis and Marcott) are quickly pulled apart. There have not been many catastrophic weather events recently, just a very wet and windy British Winter which was down to a shift in the jetstream. Or some cold weather events, which (for some odd reason) people can't accept was caused by global warming. The climate summits meetings used to be glitzy jamborees with thousands of press, but now hardly get a mention. The vocal political consensus on climate a few years ago could not have been housed in Wembley Stadium, but would now fail to fill the main stand at Workington AFC.
Kevin Marshall
Cook is niothing but Lewandowsky's parrot- ref Lewandowsky's lectures 4 yrs ago:
http://www.sciencewa.net.au/topics/environment-a-conservation/item/598-climate-change-debate-%E2%80%9Cheats-up%E2%80%9D-at-uwa-event
Shaping the Future of Climate Change: Dogma or Consensus – Scepticism or Denial, - Lewandowsky
http://www.news.uwa.edu.au/200912081983/media-statements/shaping-future-climate-change
Barry Woods
Richard,
re:
"As I said to Nic afterwards "We really all agree!" That's how weird this stupid climate situation is."
I don't claim any firm predictions, but I will make a guess that in 5 to 10 years most alarm-oriented people (of those who still dare to talk about these topics) will be citing every bit of qualification and hesitation in any IPCC and official reports to pretend that they were right all along, that climate is always changing but there is no global catastrophe etc.
Many will have "moved on" to new crises, whether real or alleged, to satisfy their need for public clamor.
The rest will be busily re-writing the history to pretend that they always emphasized the uncertainties and can explain why the alleged catastrophes are not emerging.
Flat surface temps. until 2030 and there will be many new serious binge drinking problems, though.
Skiphil
I shall be attending the Cook lecture tomorrow evening, and hope to make it to the Channings at 5pm to meet up with all.