Matt Ridley's article of the same name yesterday seemed worth highlighting, both because of the quality of the argument and in case it prompted useful discussion. Here's the ending:

Writing my book The Rational Optimist in the middle of a great recession that seemed to be bringing the world economy to its knees was brave to the point of foolhardiness. But if anything I was too cautious. The world bounced back from that recession far faster than I expected and the pace of innovation and improvement redoubled.

Britain, too, did better than I feared. We are growing faster than any other major economy, we have seen the unemployment rate defy even the most cheery forecasts in its rate of fall and we have kept the country safer from terrorism than was true for most of my life. Technologies that seem indistinguishable from magic keep falling cheaply into our hands.

Of course, like anybody I can still talk myself into gloom. Scotland could break away. Militant Islam could tear our communities apart. European bureaucrats could strangle innovation even more than they do already. When asked what I most worry about, I always reply “bureaucracy and superstition” because these are what brought down previous civilisations in Ming China or Abbasid Arabia.

Be warned that being cheerful guarantees you will never be taken seriously. The philosopher John Stuart Mill said: “Not the man who hopes when others despair, but the man who despairs when others hope, is admired by a large class of persons as a sage.”

I also appreciate Matt's use of Indur Goklany's graph of deaths from extreme climate events, showing them coming down since the 1920s - something I've been banging on about since November 2011. There are connections with the latest news on IPCC WG2 on Climate Audit in my view.

Lastly, Matt mentions the latest bad news from northern Iraq and elsewhere. This could be a place to consider how superstition in its most vicious form weighs in the balance with the looming climate catastrophe sort. But only of course if people want.

I think we have greater dissemination of information to thank for our current even course.

I really agree with that. I'm not sure I know which way the Scots are going to vote and I'm not sure how quickly we're going to allow shale to bless us in the UK, including with much-needed energy security, but I'm broadly with you and Ridley.

That really moved me John. I wasn't 'thinking of the kids' as I put this thread up, just how important what Ridley said was. But robbing children of hope is serious indeed - a point Thomas Sowell made trenchantly in May. Last night I read his latest, Attacking Achievement, on a not dissimilar theme from his native New York. As I did I thought "I bet Lindzen went to one of those schools." Ah yes, Bronx Science. Hope for the cobbler's son who's just escaped the Holocaust.

You and Andrew are onto something very important, in case you didn't already know.

Awesome John. I need to read more of those. For now though I'm buried in source code and will be for a little while.