Discussion > A Quick Re-Visit to my 2015 Election Prediction
Well we'll have the summer to see how the Conservatives are going to play Paris. My best hope is that they decide to let others take a lead.
With an actual majority this time, I hope they take a knife to more of the green bloat.
Ed Miliband going (I'll buy in the jelly and ice cream this morning) Check!!!
Impressive list BigYin, I got caught up with the pollsters and called it wrong like they did. Dan Hodges called it correctly interestingly with the exception of his UKIP 8% of the vote prediction.
link to that Dan Hodges article
Yep spot on for Cameron prediction
"officially TCTC – too close to call. Except it isn’t. .. of the last 10 polls, 6 have shown Tory leads, 3 Labour, with one tie. 4 of those Tory leads have been 3 points or above ..There’s only one election narrative that matters. David Cameron is on course for Downing Street."
but spitefully wrong on his UKIP predictions
. "As I have written every week for the past 5 years, Ukip will not poll anything like 14% on 7 May
. ..It’s clear that Ukip will poll below, (possibly well below), double figures next week. "
He was wrong, without accounting for tactical voters UKIP polled 12.6%
By the end of the year when I usually review my predictions, I'll have forgotten the nuances of the election, so I'll revisit them now to see how I did. Here's what I said back ay the New Year:
Tiny conservative victory - check
Obliterated LibDems - check
UKIP having 10 MPs - bzzzzt
Labour obliterated in Scotland - check
Climate not featuring in the election - check
Ed Davey going - CHECK!
Still waiting for:
SNP demanding devolution (or indeed another referendum)
Ed Miliband going (I'll buy in the jelly and ice cream this morning)
So I'm going to give myself a pat on the back for political pundit, far better than the wretched BBC.