Discussion > Cameron Is Watching The Thimble And Not The Pea
"So what happens when the next Solar Minimum arrives?"
It's now 4:10 PM, December. There appears to be a solar minimum going on as I look out the window.
michael hart
My suspicions are that, if there is to be a fall in temperatures due to the sun’s quiescence, it is likely to occur within the next few years; we should know by 2020, though the blackouts may make it hard to crow too much. Hopefully, it will not happen, and warming resumes at its pleasant rate for a few more years, else we are going to be deep in the do-do.
If anyone would like to take me up on a bet, I would lay odds that any rise in the temperatures by 2100 will result in being within 1K of where they are today – however, if they do go down, they will plummet more than 1K. (I am using K in this instance as it makes me look like an uber-nerdy scientist – even if appearances can be deceptive. It also means I do not have to do the Alt-248 thing on the keyboard, which is covered by my mouse wire.)
If nothing else, it gives a good reason to hang around until then!
MH – you are being silly. This is what the locals often refer to as “night”.
Radical Rodent
I think the Solar radiation figure (magnetic and IR) is probably some of the most accurate information we get and is so far unadjusted (Michael Hart's house notwithstanding ^.^). The bad news seems to arrive when various cycles peak at the same time and I am not sure where those cycles are right now. Does anyone know where we are in the Milankovitch cycles?
Michael Hart:
When the Solar Minimum arrives then Solar Radiation is at a 300 year low.
Dung
C'mon guys. Dung said:"I had not really thought about the effect of a Solar Minimum on Solar Power but it seems obvious that the effectiveness of Solar Power generation will be reduced."
I don't know the exact figure but, changes in cloud cover aside, I doubt if a solar minimum is as much as a 1 or 2 % decline. Even if it was 10%, it as not as much as the 100% observed at sunset every day. That is the pressing problem for solar-panel manufacturers.
michael hart
According to Svensmark’s idea, cloud cover is induced by cosmic rays (yes, I know it sounds rather 1930s-style sci-fi, but it is a scientifically-accepted term); the more we have, the greater the cloud cover, and the cooler the Earth. When the sun is active, the solar wind pushes the cosmic rays off us; when it is quiet, the cosmic rays get through. More clouds form, and the Earth cools. Apparently, these cosmic rays and global temperatures correlate considerably better than CO2 does, or ever has, and have done as far back as they have investigated, to date – about 200 million years. So – solar minimum means more cosmic rays means more cloud means solar panels less effective. Done.
Of course, accepting that means admitting that the scare that has been generated, the money spent “fixing” the non-problem, and the taxes we are being forced to pay are wrong. What politician, political party, country or political system is ever going to admit that?
Radical Rodent
RR
As far as I can see, most things correlate better than CO2 (Entropic Man notwithstanding). Unfortunately CO2 correlates extremely well with the wishes of the Green Blob!
I know I'm a bit out on a limb here but I think Cameron is one of the few politicians around who could bring himself to admit that governments have got it wrong. But when you've got a wife up to her neck in greenery and a father-in-law up to his neck in greenbacks from his wind farm scams I doubt he is (at present anyway) quite brave enough.
Sooner or later someone in authority will step up and admit that keeping the lights on and the poor warm is more important than lopping a putative half-degree off a theoretical rise in temperature which may happen long after most of us are dead and there will be the same collective sigh of relief that went round when someone was brave enough to query whether the Adoration of the Late Princess of Wales wasn't ever-so-slightly OTT!
(I still remember exactly where I was when that happened just as I remember exactly where I was when I heard that Kennedy had been assassinated!)
Mike Jackson
Thanks RR I had totally missed the connection with Svensmark, which is strange since I really like his theories ^.^ I think that between your explanation and that of Michael Hart you have just about nailed it hehe. Svensmark gives the only rational explanation for the correlation between sunspots and temperature. The detail was that cosmic rays (sub atomic particles sprayed out by super novae) enter our atmosphere at high speed and collide with molecules in the atmosphere. The collisions and interactions cause large molecules to be created such that when they reach the lower atmosphere they are large enough to seed clouds, job done as you said ^.^
Dung
Our leader is delivering on his promise to make this the greenest government ever. Just to over egg the pudding Cameron is making us the greenest economy in the world. We are being greened by decarbonising our economy and although wind power subsidies are reducing, Cameron is still strongly in favour of solar.
So what happens when the next Solar Minimum arrives? I had not really thought about the effect of a Solar Minimum on Solar Power but it seems obvious that the effectiveness of Solar Power generation will be reduced.
Shock Horror when I read about a new paper published a couple of days ago (GWPF) which states that the next Solar Minimum starts now. We are in the middle of cycle 25 and cycle 26 will be the start of the real minimum.
By the time of the actual Minimum ,if our energy mix and the CCA are still in place then we will be well and truly shafted.