Just heard that NASA and NOAA have a press conference scheduled for Thursday.

My back of the envelope calculation suggests they will be announcing a GISS annual average for 2015 of about anomaly 0.87C

RR, that would be fairly typical for climate science: In January 2016, EM predicts the GISS temperature anomaly for 2015.

Radical Rodent & michael hart, it is a bit like the predictions of Nostradamus. They only make some sense after an event has happened, not before. Even then, 'interpretation' or 'homogenisation' is required, for 'best fit' purposes.

It does prove the inability of climate models to predict anything, ie they serve no purpose. If they can't predict anything, why do taxpayers have to pay for them?

Michael hart

Got it right too, 24 hours before they put it on their website. ☺

EM, did you predict this, or was it a 'leaked in advance of press release' sort of scenario intended by spin doctors to attract media attention?

Any chance of the forecast for 2016 being released by 2017, or is that expecting too much of climate science and modelling?

Predicted it☺

Radical Rodent

Courtesy of Eli Rabbett , the current data in context.

Look at his second graph and you will see the NOAA raw data in pale blue. Note that pre 1940 the adjusted data is warmer than the raw data.

The climate scientists must be on your side. They fiddled the data to reduce the warming rate. Now why should they do that?

I have just predicted that during January 2016 there will be further falls in the price of crude oil, causing serious panic amongst Unreliable energy companies who can't survive without the subsidies promised by Ed Miliband in 2015.

The average household will enjoy the benefits of lower energy costs, but the BBC won't report this, concentrating on any bad news they can.

The Met Office will announce that we can expect more flooding and droughts due to global warming, as this is what they have always predicted.

Climate scientists will continue to Deny having made any wrong predictions due to climate science whenever their predictions are wrong.

EM, you don't really expect us to believe you, do you?
It was published two days ago.

From Google:

Global Temperature in 2015 – Climate Science, Awareness ...
csas.ei.columbia.edu/2016/01/19/global-temperature-in-2015/
2 days ago - Global surface temperature in 2015 was +0.87°C (~1.6°F) warmer than the ... at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ and http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/; ...

Michael hart

Curse, they beat me to it! And I was feeling so smug, too😕

Breath of Fresh Air

Thank you for awarding me a PhD.☺

I was offered the chance to do a PhD on seed dispersal once, but declined. My mind hops about too much to spend three intense yoers on one project.

EM, I think you should offer Gavin Schmidt your services. You are probably just the type of person he's looking for.

Michael hart

I doubt they would want an elderly amateur scientist.

Breath of fresh air

Going from two Es to a PhD sounds unlikely in any subject, despite the Carrollian state of our university system.

Examples?

EM, I think you should offer Gavin Schmidt your services. You are probably just the type of person he's looking for.

Jan 21, 2016 at 3:54 PM | Unregistered Commentermichael hart
Michael Hart

I doubt they would want an elderly amateur scientist.

Jan 21, 2016 at 4:02 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man

Don't do yourself down, EM. Gavin is not even than that, yet.

E+E? Can't put my finger on it but I have a recollection that would get you onto a UAE degree course. Should be taken as an urban myth in the absence of actual evidence.

EM 4:02 "..... elderly amateur scientist "

You did very well to be given advance notice of US press releases. Is this on a need to be paid to know basis?

Golf Charlie

I know your conspiracy theories prevent you believing me, but I made an honest estimate. I made an educated guess that December would be as hot as November,

I added my guess to the available monthly averages for 2015 on the GISS website and calculated the 0.87C annual average..

No secret access necessary.☺

Golf Charlie

I know your conspiracy theories prevent you believing me, but I made an honest estimate. I made an educated guess that December would be as hot as November,

I added my guess to the available monthly averages for 2015 on the GISS website and calculated the 0.87C annual average..

No secret access necessary.☺

EM, over at WUWT, there appears to be some confusion about the provenance of the unprecedented 2015 temperatures claim. It just seemed very strange that as an amateur you worked it all out on the back of an envelope, and also forgot the same figures that had been previously trumpeted by the professionals.

EM, a real trick would be for you to predict NOW the anomaly at the end of 2016, re the title of this thread and the original intent of this annual outing.

The Big Yin James

1998, the El Nino letdown year, was 0.16C warmer than 1997, the El Nino buildup year. If 2015 and 2016 follow the same pattern a similar warming should occur.

I suggest that the GISS 2016 value will come in at anomaly 1.03C.

Would you care to make a projection and explain your reasoning.