Discussion > Are Geological Paleo-Climate Records Relevant to The Climate Debate?
Ken
Hehe. Didn't think of that angle.
Micky H Corbett
One of the most amusing things to me is the ironic way hoi polloi have come to understand that the decline being hidden was one of temperatures. They understand the essence, that there was deceit in the reconstruction, but completely fail the particulars, the decline of the proxies that were used.
Smoothed out the particulars, but completely understand the general, that is the decline of climate science from the pursuit of truth.
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kim
Heh. Here are those pesky climate scientists furtively hiding the decline by um, publishing a paper on it
The swine!
Phil Clarke
Double heh heh, as if there were no need to hide the decline. So why did they do it? Force of deceitful habit?
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kim
Why did they do what?
Phil Clarke
I hold you in contempt. Your deceitful tactics constitute a fraud upon the court. Don't you have an oath or something, if only to yourself?
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kim
Why did they do what?
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Then just go into full retreat,
Otherwise you could loose your head!
Put on your stupidest face and say:
"My name is rabbit, I do not know nothing!"A4 rocket instruction manual, German soldiers, for the use of. (US translation)
Martin A
Contempt of BH
Is that even possible?
The jury is in.
Phil Clarke
Mann's Hockey Stick, Contempt of science. Verdict:Guilty.
golf charlie
Phil has been shafted;
What his moving finger writes
Damns him on his Stick.
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kim
Let us try this in words as close to one syllable as we can get.
Jones admitted that they had spliced real temperature figures onto proxy results "to hide the decline".
What decline? A decline in the proxy figures.
Why did they do this? Because the temperatures were going up.
Why did this matter? Because if their poxy results suddenly stopped matching the observations what is to say they were ever right except by accident?
Mike Jackson
Mr Clarke: you would appear to be in your own sphere of denial. Perhaps you have not heard the phrase, “Hide the decline,” so have no knowledge as to what it could refer to. Perhaps you have not heard of “Mike’s nature trick”, either. In which case, you might be wiser keeping quiet, and trying to catch up with the rest of the world, instead of spraying ad homs in all directions. Let us start with a simple premise: do you not think it odd that the start of the temperature uptick should be as soon as instrumentation for temperature measurement becomes widely-used?
aTTP: it is beginning to look as though I do know more than you about… well… most things. I might draw the line at the underlife of Edinburgh; while I have studied there, that was quite a while ago, and things might have moved on. Unless you are being disingenuous, of course.
Radical Rodent
I believe Jones was discussng the cover art for this WMO report
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcdmp/documents/913_en.pdf
Would that be right?
Seems to me the graphic is pretty well captioned:
Front cover: Northern Hemisphere temperatures were reconstructed for the past 1000 years (up to 1999) using palaeoclimatic records (tree rings, corals, ice cores, lake sediments, etc.), along with historical and long
instrumental records. The data are shown as 50-year smoothed differences from the 1961–1990 normal.
Prior to the illicit email leak, this graphic was discussed by, well, nobody really. People wanting a reconstruction went to the literature or the IPCC reports. The wettest of damp squibs.
And the 'divergence problem' is hardly a huge secret. It even has a wikipedia entry.
Phil Clarke
Perhaps you have not heard the phrase, “Hide the decline,” so have no knowledge as to what it could refer to. Perhaps you have not heard of “Mike’s nature trick”, either.
Both originate from a single sentence in a mail from Phil Jones, 'Mike's Nature Trick' is displaying modern instrumental temperatures alongside a proxy reconstruction. Nothing wrong with that. 'Hide the decline' means not using modern proxy data when it diverges from observations. This is also fine as long as it is described, as it was e.g. in IPCC AR4:-
Several analyses of ring width and ring density chronologies, with otherwise well established sensitivity to temperature, have shown that they do not emulate the general warming trend evident in instrumental temperature records over recent decades, although they do track the warming that occurred during the early part of the 20th century and they continue to maintain a good correlation with observed temperatures over the full instrumental period at the interannual time scale (Briffa et al., 2004; D’Arrigo, 2006). This ‘divergence’ is apparently restricted to some northern, high latitude regions, but it is certainly not ubiquitous even there. In their large-scale reconstructions based on tree ring density data, Briffa et al. (2001) specifically excluded the post-1960 data in their calibration against instrumental records, to avoid biasing the estimation of the earlier reconstructions (hence they are not shown in Figure 6.10), implicitly assuming that the ‘divergence’ was a uniquely recent phenomenon, as has also been argued by Cook et al. (2004a).
Phil Clarke
Phil Clarke, Denies all evidence of historic climate change, in accordance with Mann's Flat Liner Hockey Stick Graph.
golf charlie
RR,
Okay, I'm not really following what you're getting at. Do I take it that you're simply trying to be insulting?
...and Then There's Physics
Has Golf Charley been replaced with a random word generator seeded with the phrase 'Hockey Stick' ?
Phil Clarke
You really are in denial, aren’t you, Mr Clarke? Unless you have a paid position to maintain, of course. Time will tell. I wonder if you will be one of those who, in 30 years’ time, will be denying that there ever was a global warming scare, as you preach about what should be done for the oncoming ice age (though probably still blaming CO2 for it; most certainly still blaming human activity for it). Should you plan for that, you might be advised to cut and keep those comments that deny that there ever was a global cooling scare; they could come in useful.
Radical Rodent
I might draw the line at the underlife of Edinburgh; while I have studied there, that was quite a while ago, and things might have moved on.
They have. Not the same since the Waverley closed and Sandy Bells changed hands. Try the Syng or the Bramble bar, tell them Green Man sent you.
Little-known fact: Lord Monckton thinks he owns the Queen Street gardens !!
Phil Clarke
aTTP: with you, it would seem, I do not have to try to be insulting, though I suspect you are merely being obtuse. If you really do not understand what I have written, even after re-reading and referencing back, then perhaps you should ask someone else to help you, as any explanation I offer will probably be of little use to you.
Radical Rodent
RR,
You could always try, but no problem if you can't be bothered.
...and Then There's Physics
Phil Clarke, your devotion to Mann's Hockey Stick is noted, but it is time to halt the damage it has done, destroying lives careers, businesses, livelihoods, science and history, and put the Hockey Stick down.
You will be able to find something more useful to do.
golf charlie
Blimey. If one little paleo-study can do all that, imagine the damage PAGES2K is going to wreak!
Phil Clarke
Phil Clarke, you seem very pleased with the damage that you and other Flat Liners have caused, and hope to continue to cause.
golf charlie
RR,
You're going to have to explain the context of your questions, because I'm not understanding what you're getting at.