Discussion > Predictions for 2017
You did much, much better than most pollsters last year.
Supertroll
Hi there BYIJ...
Good to see you're back, albeit momentarily. I have missed reading your comments, firmly grounded in physics, real world R&D experience, and good sense.
Will you be having another go at the edX/MIT course Introduction to Probability - The Science of Uncertainty An introduction to probabilistic models, including random processes and the basic elements of statistical inference ? [It starts in a couple of weeks.] You kindly alerted us to this course last year.
I started the course and I was getting marks in the 95+% region but I dropped it part way through when I found:
- It was taking more time than I had budgeted for, so other things in my life had ground to a halt.
- I did not have the time to read around each subject to understand it completely and in depth, rather than merely to get good marks in the tests. My objective for the course had been the former, rather than the latter.
I'm now weighing up whether or not to clear the decks and have another go at it this year.
Martin A
Check Old 2016 prediction thread
Unfortunately R*ff turned up and drove it off topic.
stewgreen
@Dung said
1. We will vote to leave the EU (how Cameron responds to that is another matter).
2. Cameron will quit or otherwise lose his position as leader of the Conservative Party.
** 4 points **
3. Corbyn will lose the leadership of the Labour Party.
** Corbyn is head of something which used to be the Labour party
4. Cruz will be nominated as the Republican Presidential leadership candidate and he will become the next president.
** My hope ... but a fail
he added
At some point in the next five years (maybe 2016) the pause will end!
A period of cooling will begin which will end in cold place ^.^
stewgreen
Radical Rodent said :
1. Whatever the Met Office predicts for summer, the weather will do the opposite – I suspect that they will predict a wet, miserable year, so look forward to a balmy few months – with perhaps even a drought being declared (and blamed on… guess what?)
** suppose that happened
2. Some “emergency” will occur, causing the US presidential elections to be cancelled, and Obama remaining in office, with increased powers to over-rule both Houses, until it is resolved – if, indeed, they ever think it can be.
** Close, he tried to pull the "Russia fixed it " stunt
So in the fantasy universe of Obama supporters Trump is not the becoming the real president instead it's still Obama
stewgreen
TheBigYinJames
Depending on what Trump does to US Government funding of Climate Science, and hence the UN's IPCC and the UN generally, the UK's Spring Budget of 2017 will be interesting.
Global Warming seems to be Unmentionable in politics. Theresa May discarded the DECC, and nobody (that actually mattered) said anything. If May follows Trump, and axes Climate Science, and Corbyn's Labour does not squeak, then Progressive regimes within the EU and it's Member States, will be open goals for opposition groups to shoot at.
Egg-on-Face will be the EU's top recipe for 2017, and it won't curdle well for 2018 if the stench of Global Warming lingers.
I predict a big bonfire of political vanity projects, across the USA, and the EU will follow in a progressive and erratic manner.
golf charlie
I predict a major electricity supply failure within the next 3 months in the UK.
Steve Richards
Good to see you are still around, TBYJ. Sadly, I’m no nearer understanding what you so patiently tried to teach me, earlier, but I will just accept what you say is true.
My predictions last year were made rather tongue-in-cheek, in the hope that they were so outlandish, they could not happen. While I was nowhere near correct, I was still unnervingly close – especially for the second one! There is still time for the US elections to be voided, in one way or another – though the only way that I can actually see that happening is that WWIII is declared in the next 2 weeks.
For 2017:
1. There will be more desperate attempts for the year to be declared the hottest, like, evah! However, the intense cold suffered in many places, especially those notoriously hot, as we drop back into a mini-ice age, will make more and more people realise that all is not well in the climate department, and that someone may actually be telling fibs.
2. Trump (assuming he actually does take over; I still have some trepidation about that) will turn off the funding faucet, and climate science will gradually die back from its bloated form into something more rigorous and vigorous, and start performing real science, with nobody making any headlines.
3. Procrastination by May will ensure that Article 50 will not be invoked; the growing rumblings of discontent will trigger a snap general election. While the Conservatives will win, May will be obliged to resign as leader; UKIP will become the principle party in opposition, with the LibDems reduced to no more than 1 MP, and SNP and Labour becoming rump parties, with few MPs and no clout.
4. Another European country (possibly Germany) will vote to leave the EU; others will follow soon after, as the EU continues to crumble.
5. Blackouts throughout the UK will have people demanding that fracking should start NOW, and all attempts to stop it should cease, forthwith.
There. Five should do it. No sports, no entertainment, and no media – all are too fickle for any but the most barmy to try and predict. BTW, there is only one that I hope you are right on – disbanding the IPCC.
Radical Rodent
Martin said:
Will you be having another go at the edX/MIT course Introduction to Probability - The Science of Uncertainty An introduction to probabilistic models, including random processes and the basic elements of statistical inference ? [It starts in a couple of weeks.] You kindly alerted us to this course last year.
Alas no. Like you, I started with good intentions but after the first few introductory courses, the amount of time I was having to put in made it impossible to fit in as a hobby. We're renovating the house to sell this year, I have the first draft of a new novel in mid-flight, and my usual business and commercial activities mean I don't have enough time to do it justice. Like you, I was interested in it to apply to real-world problems, and not just as another gong to add to the list.
TheBigYinJames
Radical Rodent said:
Good to see you are still around, TBYJ. Sadly, I’m no nearer understanding what you so patiently tried to teach me, earlier, but I will just accept what you say is true.
I don't even remember what it was, I'm sure it was semantics rather than conceptual, most disagreements are around here! Take no-ones word for it, especially mine!
TheBigYinJames
A year ago on the Predictions for 2016 thread TBYJ challenged me to predict the average temperature anomaly for 2016.
EM, a real trick would be for you to predict NOW the anomaly at the end of 2016, re the title of this thread and the original intent of this annual outing.Jan 22, 2016 at 3:42 PM | Unregistered CommenterTheBigYinJames
The Big Yin James1998, the El Nino letdown year, was 0.16C warmer than 1997, the El Nino buildup year. If 2015 and 2016 follow the same pattern a similar warming should occur.
I suggest that the GISS 2016 value will come in at anomaly 1.03C.
Would you care to make a projection and explain your reasoning.
Jan 22, 2016 at 11:16 PM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man
Today GISs published their figure for 2016. They got anomaly 0.99C.
Curses. I said 1.03C. Missed it by 0.04C.
My prediction for 2017 ?
BOM project an ENSO neutral year.
The long term trend is currently passing 0.8C.
I project that the GISS anomaly annual average for 2017 will be 0.82C.
Entropic man
I project that the GISS anomaly annual average for 2017 will be 0.82C.
Jan 19, 2017 at 12:34 AM | Entropic man
I PREDICT that the GISS anomaly annual averages for 2000 - 2017 will be reassessed without unnecessary adjustments.
golf charlie
Preliminary GISS figure for 2017 is anomaly 0.9C.
I predicted 0.82C.
0.9C is way above the long term trend .WTF is going on?
Entropic man
0.9C is way above the long term trend .WTF is going on?Jan 4, 2018 at 11:42 AM | Unregistered CommenterEntropic man
WTF is going on? You forgot to say at least +/-0.2C, (probably a lot more) that's WTF is going on.
I would make similar predictions too. Next year's temperatures are likely to be the same as this year's temperatures within the usual margins of error. You'll find this kind of approach works quite well for tomorrows stock market prices too. Good job you're not tasked with managing such things. When people are able to consistently make predictions that become true, and are different from the prevailing 'recent' trend, then they start to be taken seriously, and paid a lot more.
michael hart
Michael hart
The uncetainty due to internal variability in the annual GISS averages is quoted by NASA as +/-0.09C.
The current long term trend has similar uncertainty and is currently running close to 0.8C.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1970/to:2018/every/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1970/to:2018/every/trend/offset:0.09/plot/gistemp/from:1970/to:2018/every/trend/offset:-0.09/plot/gistemp/from:1998/to:2018/every/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1998/to:2018/every/trend/offset:0.09/plot/gistemp/from:1998/to:2018/every/trend/offset:-0.09/plot/gistemp/from:1970/to:2018/every
El Nino years can go up to 0.2C above the trend. Thus 2016 came in at 0.98C, 0.18C above the trend and not surprising for an El Nino year.
La Nina years show a similar depression below the trend. A mild La Nina year is usually 0.1 C lower than average. 2017 began as an ENSO neutral year and finished in La Nina.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview
By normal standards 2017 should have come in around 0.7C, yet it has come in informally around 0.9C and second warmest on record.
Hence my puzzlement.
Entropic man
Predictions for 2017
I have been in absentia for a while, but I thought I'd return for my annual predictions thread. I seem to be getting worse at the old prediction as time goes on, so I may start calling them 'projections' instead and get myself tenure at UEA. Anyway, a look at what I said last year.
It's early days but what with it being an El Niño year, it looks like the spike will throw the flatline off a bit - the real observation will be where the temperature settles back to afterwards, it appears to have been something of a ratchet effect in previous cycles, but who knows. All I know is that the trends do seem up this year, so my prediction was wrong.
North Yorkshire and Lancashire both had greenlights for fracking this year, but until there's a hole in the ground, the dastards can and will try to stop it. Almost right, take half a point because the intent is there.
Never been so glad to be wrong on a prediction, although it looks like they are going to bore us to death with a long drawn out and ultimately useless compromise. I hope I'm wrong on that too.
I'm not doing well, am I?
I think I'd better take up another hobby. Actually, just because ministers have backed a third runway, doesn't mean it's going to happen. But since they at least decided - something - then I have to consider this a failed prediction too.
Little bit of a cheat point on this, because unbeknown to me at the time I wrote this prediction, the government had already set out a schedule of FITs reductions over the course of the following 18 months. So I get the point, I suppose, and it's badly needed.
So I got 1.5 out of 5. Fabulous.
So what about this year? Can I make a set of predictions which are all incorrect? Will this make me qualified to be a climate scientist? Let's give it a go.
1. Article 50 will not be invoked this year.
2. 2017 will be the 'hottest evah'
3. There will be moves to disband the IPCC this year.
4. There will be a fatality involving a wind turbine
5. There will be a terror attack on UK soil
I hope to god I'm wrong on some of them.
I've written another post about why I don't get into climate discussions any more, my current understanding and appreciation of the area, and decisions I've taken for a happier life, and I'll be posting that in the next couple of days before lapsing back into lurkerdom.
Adios.