Discussion > French Parliamentry Election Result
Jun 12, 2017 at 11:02 AM | stewgreen
French Election maths is as unmeasurable as the UK's?
The result is a triumph for Macron, and the Progressives, having involved coalitions and personalities from the Left, Right and Centre.
The UK has a Prime Minister with a coalition issue. Macron has yet to find out how many conflicting opinions are sat around his Cabinet Office, because as individuals, they all know what they think were the promises made by Macron's Team, but none of them, including Macron, really know what those promises were, and how conflicting they are.
I wish Macron well, but expect a short honeymoon, and simmering resentments to develop into blazing rows. The only thing they have in common, is love for the EU, and fear of Le Pen.
Treat it as FREXIT Vote, Round 1, much as UK Remainers refuse to accept BREXIT as conclusive (despite what they say in public)
golf charlie
Jun 12, 2017 at 11:47 AM by golf charlie
"The only thing they have in common, is love for the EU, and fear of Le Pen."
What on earth could go wrong? :)
Robert Christopher
In this part of France, Le Pen scored close to 90% in the presidential first round and less than 25% in the second. So don't ask anyone except a Frenchman to explain how/why the French vote as they do.
The rules for parliamentary elections are as follows (courtesy of Wikipedia which is accurate and in this case as succinct as it is possible to be).
To be elected in the first round, a candidate was required to secure an absolute majority of votes cast and to secure votes equal to at least 25% of eligible voters in their constituency. Should none of the candidates satisfy these conditions, a second round of voting ensues. Only first-round candidates with the support of at least 12.5% of eligible voters (ie on the electoral roll) are allowed to participate, but if fewer than two candidates meet that standard the two candidates with the highest number of votes in the first round may continue to the second round. In the second round, the candidate with a plurality is elected.
How the pollsters project an overall majority of the size quoted is based on Macron's standing at the end of the first round. Without trawling every constituency in all the départements (no-one seems to have a comprehensive list) I don't know in how many he is leading, what his margin is in those, and who his opponent will be in the next round. French pollsters usually call it fairly accurately but who knows what the reaction will be by voters to the lowest turnout on record?
On what will happen next ... pass!
Mike Jackson
On what will happen next ... pass!
Jun 12, 2017 at 3:01 PM | Mike Jackson
What on earth could go wrong? :)
Jun 12, 2017 at 12:29 PM | Robert Christopher
As so many political careers have backed Macron, against FREXIT and Le Pen, where do the French rally to voice their disappointment with Macron? The French political establishment, and their employees, have a track record of NOT standing in the way of public demonstrations.
golf charlie
Maybe some of our French residents will be able to shine some light please.
"Mr Macron's party La République En Marche (LREM) and their MoDem allies on 32.3 per cent of the vote, leaving rival parties crushed."
Wow what if he had got 42.4% like Mrs May ???
"Marine Le Pen's party had 13.2 per cent of the vote"
"Though almost every seat will go to a second-round run-off, the first round results suggest En Marche and MoDem will end up with up to 445 seats in the 577 seat National Assembly"
How does it work that Macron gets 32% of the vote and 80% of the seats ?