BBD

Thanks: great reference. I'll drag that one out the next time some do-gooder starts trying to guilt-trip the Western world about disappearing islands.

Turning Tide

Read up on SEAFRAME:

http://www.bom.gov.au/pacificsealevel/project_info.shtml

The latest (2009) report for Tuvalu is here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO60033/IDO60033.2009.pdf

The report misrepresents the trend for Tuvalu as 4.7mm/yr. It is easy to see how it does so.

See Fig 1 Sea level anomalies at SEAFRAME sites. Note the major excursion (drop) in sea level 1997 – 1998. All the supposed upward trend quoted in Table 4 is derived from this exceptional event. Remove it, and you get no trend.

To confirm this, look at Figure 4. Evolution of relative sea level trends (mm/year) at SEAFRAME stations. You will see absolutely no trend whatsoever.

The oceans may be warming, and humans may be causing at least some of it, but there is still no trend at Tuvalu. Never mind the satellite nonsense, this is the best observational data there is.

And BOM was so sure it was going to be a smoking gun or whatever the nonsense phrase du jour is.

It is beyond past time this came to wider public attention. Instead of absolute rubbish about Tuvalu 'set to be the first casualty of GW' etc.

How the Mighty have fallen, Labour Minister with 'Green Credentials'

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/apr/07/elliot-morley-admits-mp-expenses-fraud

As far as I could tell, the UK's Climate Week passed without making any impact other than the odd local council resolution being passed ('we condemn world hunger' etc), art competitions for children being held, or pals of the many organisers relabelling something they were planning to do anyway. I hope my impressions are right.

Here is another event, this one coming out of the USA, which I also hope will have all the appeal and impact of a damp squib on a wet afternoon: the Millions Kids March, whereby child victims of climate scaremongering are being encouraged to take to the streets on 8th May: http://climatelessons.blogspot.com/2011/04/marches-of-madness-in-may-child-victims.html

Apparently there's so little solid evidence about the threat posed to Pacific islands by climate change that scientists are getting together to take a good look at the evidence and to try to distinguish man-made from natural impacts.

Funny, that, since we've been getting told for years that the Pacific islands are going to be under the waves in next to no time.

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/asiapac/stories/201104/s3185425.htm

What's the betting the outcome of this will be that "more research [money] is needed" ...?

Watts Up With that gets a Carbon Brief profile..

lots of smear and inuendo...

http://www.carbonbrief.org/profiles/watts-up-with-that

see why it matters... (ie everything they do goes to the media, lobby groups and politicians)
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/02/18/the-carbon-brief-the-european-rapid-response-team/

A great article by Doug Keenan at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/04/06/warming-or-cooling-heads-or-tails/#more-37452.

This article on Shale gas is a MUST READ:

http://www.thegwpf.org/energy-news/2764-nick-grealy-shale-gass-wow-moment.html

The importance of the US Energy Information Administration's report on World Shale Gas Resources cannot be understated. Paradigm shifting, game changing, even mind-boggling doesn't do justice to the revelations in this report. It's hard to know where to begin, and at 365 pages I haven't even begun to go beneath these mind-blowing figures. But they are astounding. As I've said a number of times: Shale gas doesn't change everything, it's much more important than that.

Having listened to Monbiot's debate with Helen Caldicott on nuclear, read the dismal assessment of wind energy ... now read this article above. Wont be long now before the debates really begin to get interesting ...

Just got access to the first edition of "nature climate change" journal..

Im one of the exclusive 5ooo, selected to get a 1year free subscription.. wow, what wonders :p..

Well well well wonders will never cease. The John Muir Trust's critical evaluation of Scottish wind power was featured on BBC Scotland News (a usually fervent convert to the cause) a few minutes ago.

This analysis uses publicly available data for a 26 month period between November 2008 and December 2010 and the facts in respect of the above assertions are:

Average output from wind was 27.18% of metered capacity in 2009, 21.14% in 2010, and 24.08% between November 2008 and December 2010 inclusive.

There were 124 separate occasions from November 2008 till December 2010 when total generation from the windfarms metered by National Grid was less than 20MW. (Average capacity over the period was in excess of 1600MW).

The average frequency and duration of a low wind event of 20MW or less between November 2008 and December 2010 was once every 6.38 days for a period of 4.93 hours.

At each of the four highest peak demands of 2010 wind output was low being respectively 4.72%, 5.51%, 2.59% and 2.51% of capacity at peak demand.

The entire pumped storage hydro capacity in the UK can provide up to 2788MW for only 5 hours then it drops to 1060MW, and finally runs out of water after 22 hours.

Here's the link to the report:

http://www.jmt.org/news.asp?s=2&nid=JMT-N10561