Thursday
Jan052012
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Quote of the day
Jan 5, 2012 Climate: Surface Quotes Newcastle did not beat Manchester United today, because the long term trend is for Manchester United to beat Newcastle.
Stephen Goddard, alluding to last night's footie results.
Reader Comments (25)
All very well, but the consensus is that computer models, using seasonally adjusted data, show that within 6 - 7 years Newcastle WILL consistently beat Manchester United. The smoothed data (based on net results) that takes into account penalties and changes to the offside rule - and increasing flooding of the pitch slowing the velocity of the ball whilst simultaneously increasing the football boot footprint in the soft grass - simply cannot be denied. Goddard, who has a vested interest in promoting cricket, shouldn't be making these unfounded, non-peer reviewed assertions and you folks should stop giving credence to unelected, unaccountable Manchester United activists. Just how green can you get believing these sportists. As far as Goddard is concerned, this is a massive own goal.
An own goal by Phil Jones I believe.
Frankly I don't give a damn. The Lads put three goals (correction, two + one free gift) in the Manchester Utd net and that's all that matters.
As Billy Bremner (I think) is reported to have said after one particularly spectacular goal, "I don't describe them; I just count them".
:-)
From the covering letter.
'(4) I have asked my staff to prepare a summary document on our recent work with releasing the surface temperature observations and the code, along with showing that the global warming signal is robust. I expect to send that on to you later this week. Hopefully that will be enough to convince Muir Russell not to call in statisticians to repeat the exercise. We would of course be happy to brief him on our findings.'
She could have added 'Statisticians might find something wrong with our work.' :-)
Bring Back King Kev - Saviour of Tyneside
Thankyou, Latimer. The much-maligned and under-estimated Mr Pardew is doing quite nicely at the moment.
If that tight-fisted sod that owned the club actually gave him some money to spend just think where we might end up.
Ah, but you see you're confusing results with position in the league. (That's what Roger Black told me anyway.)
Trend - schmend!
Two ancient footie wisdoms:
* the ball is round
* after the match is before the match
And let's not forget the wisdom of crowds:
* we wuz robbed
* the ref was blind
Covers all eventualities (trends) in various permutations.
;-)
The recent result by Newcastle was predicted by the models, but the upward trend in Manchester United beating Newcastle is very likely to continue for next 10,000 years according to the models. It should be noted that since the 1970's the upward trend in Manchester United beating Newcastle, correlates to the release of evil man made CO2, therefore we must conclude CO2 is the cause of Manchester United's increased performance over Newcastle.
As a NUFC fan, my response to the long term trend computer projection is; Ba humbug!
My computer model of interglacials suggests it will keep warming until it stops and then it will get colder.
@mike jackson
You are being seduced down the path to ruin. If a club needs a rich Sugar Daddy's money to keep afloat and successful, then it is unsustainable in the medium/long term and will perish.
Been there, done that, got the scars, wept the tears. Far too many clubs live in a Fool's Paradise of imaginary money and wishful thinking. No club is immortal...not even The Toon!
Latimer
Unlike an ex-Prime Minister whose name escapes me (I wish) I did watch a certain Mr Milburn play for the club and unlike him I can also remember names like Stokoe, Robledo, Mitchell, Brennan and a few others.
But that, regrettably, was 50+ years ago and every sport — my beloved rugby included — has been seduced along the path to ruin (or somewhere). But given what we've done so far this season with what we have, just think what we might be able to do with just a judicious loosening of the purse strings.
Not the league, but the Cup, maybe?
@Latimer
'If a club needs a rich Sugar Daddy's money to keep afloat and successful, then it is unsustainable in the medium/long term and will perish.'
Sounds rather like subsidised renewables to me - think ornithoblenders.
@messenger
Your analogy is even better when applied to the solar PV parasites. The Sugar Daddy (us) has decided to cut the payments in half and 'all of a sudden' they realise that there actually is no real economic case for using their useless products without huge bribes. Howls of woe, squeals of horror. 'We thought the gravy train would last forever'. 'We were just helping to save the planet'. and all the other b*ll*x. Tough titty guys, Sugar Daddy has found new toys to play with.
My own beloved football club did it the hard way. Went spectacularly broke.. Started again down with just about the Sunday league guys and worked our way back to the Football League over 20 years. Plymouth Argyle and Bristol Rovers seem to be doing going broke bit right now. Luton Town did. And Rushden and Diamonds, Cambridge United, Chester City and Stockport County (to name just the few I can recollect from the top of my head). Pompey and Bournemouth very nearly did. No club is immune if they get the finances worng...however big they (think they) are.
When the result was corrected by Foster and Rahmstorf to account for ENSO, volcanos and solar variation, Man U won 2-1, so clearly the trend of Man U winning is in fact continuing.
Man U will have beaten Newcastle in this particular game sufficiently far in the future when our various score adjustment corrections have triggered the requisite number of integer jump-events to bring the record into line with the modelled trend as posited by Goddard (2012). Naturally we cannot introduce all of these corrections immediately since questions might be raised by the troublemakers that are notorious in and around this game. In the meantime, while waiting for the records to be corrected, recourse may be had to any one of several gambits identified by Voosen (2011) and described with annotations by Pielke here: lhttp://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/10/27/candid-comments-from-global-warming-climate-scientists/). These are not specifically in our football field, but do provide inspirational templates to help keep sympathetic sports commentators happy in this difficult period of data transitioning. Remember, every square inch in the press, every soundbite minute on the tv, is a square inch or a minute denied to the contrarians.
The actual score was was 2-1 in favour of Man[n] Utd.
One goal was an own goal and as you know the "Team" are not capable of scoring own goals.
Man[n] Utd are allowed one goal based on data adjustment.
The result is then inverted a la Tiljander data.
Hence the result is 2-1 to Man[n] Utd.
I am very surprised that this data was released at all, as all you bloggers want to do is find something wrong with it!
Congratulations to Newcastle Utd!
It was the Drake Equation that started all this soft science.
N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL
This is the number of intelligent communicating civilizations in our galaxy. Each factor being unknown, it takes some gall to even contemplate multiplying 'em!
Call me grumpy old man, but I reckon that N < 1.
From BBC Live Football:
“ Phil Jones is in two minds as to whether to deal with it or let it bounce … “
& Mike Kinley on Twitter:
" Phil Jones getting a lot of plaudits this season unjustified for me. All over the place defensively. Has alot still to learn. "
"It was the Drake Equation that started all this soft science. N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL This is the number of intelligent communicating civilizations in our galaxy. Each factor being unknown, it takes some gall to even contemplate multiplying 'em! Call me grumpy old man, but I reckon that N < 1." --Brent Hargreaves
Very apt, very funny! The jury is still out, Brent Hargrump.
Howay the lads!!!
I love the sarcastic wit at Goddard's site, and this is yet another classic.
And sarcasm is really all that most of this deserves.
You watch! The trolls will be along very soon to say "the long term trend is for Manchester United to beat Newcastle." and the consensus proves it!
Jan 5, 2012 at 3:51 PM | Bruce
"My computer model of interglacials suggests it will keep warming until it stops and then it will get colder".
Groundbreaking stuff - I assume you used a Cray XK6 for the number-crunching?