Tuesday
Feb212012
by 
Bishop Hill
Bishop Hill Travels
Feb 21, 2012 Climate: MetOffice I'm going to be mainly offline for a couple of days. I'm off to Exeter, where I have been invited to speak to an audience at the Met Office. I'm sure there will be some tough questioning, but I think this is probably more stimulating than preaching to the choir.
Richard Betts has promised me lunch and I understand that Tamsin Edwards is going to make the trek down from Bristol too.
The Met Office are paying my expenses for which I'm grateful. However, if readers want to help out with a speaking fee, the tip box is your friend. Thanks as ever to those who subscribe to the site to help cover the costs of these efforts.
Reader Comments (38)
Sounds fascinating. Best of luck. Can't help with the dosh I'm afraid. Currently boracic.
A tiny drop in the collection plate, your Grace. Go well.
You could ask them why they think they need a new computer that will allow them to make the wrong forecast, based on their warped models of the climate, more quickly ?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17100224
"boracic"
:-)
I've just realised that would also make a good term for a fictitious pre-historic era. I'm sure if you used it enough, it would find its way into a Guardian piece...
something to discuss while u r there, bish:
18 Feb: Telegraph: Richard Gray: Foreign aid cash spent tackling climate change
Nearly £1.5 billion has been spent tackling man-made climate change by Government department responsible for fighting poverty abroad, it can be revealed.
Another project aimed at encouraging Indian farmers to use manual foot pumps to draw water from underground for their fields rather than using diesel powered pumps – a technology that could be considered a step backwards in terms of the labour required...
A project in western Kenya to help indigenous Nganyi rainmakers, who were being undermined by extreme weather conditions caused by changes in the climate, was launched in 2008 as part of a £25 million climate change adaptation programme funded by Dfid.
The project aimed to bring the rainmakers together with Government meteorologists to produce a "consensus forecast" before relaying it back to village farmers, who were said to be losing trust in traditional methods which could not cope with the apparent changes in climate.
It allowed forecasts to be made using a combination of satellite data and computer models and traditional techniques such as observing insects, flowers and pot blowing, where herbs are placed into a pot buried in the ground which the rainmaker blows into through a pipe, listening for coming winds.
In total £3.5 billion of public money has been paid out or allocated to projects addressing climate change abroad since 2007-08...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/9090830/Foreign-aid-cash-spent-tackling-climate-change.html
It's alright for Labours Andrew Miller to make that statement, I have a sneaking suspicion that the treasury will have a different one.
It is a welcome sign of open-mindedness on the part of the Met Office so full credit to them for that. I imagine that you are right though to expect some tough questions! Good luck!
Bish
Ask them why they need £millions more to buy a computer when Piers Corbyn does better with a calculator.
Remind them that a computer that is bigger than the last one will only get to the wrong answer quicker.
Watch your back down there , smiles on the face mean little in pratice.
They have a great deal to lose should AGW fall , thanks to them hicthing themslves so firmly to the climate scare wagon.
Watch out they don't slip a fake sheet into your speech. You have been warned.
Who are "the audience at the Met Office"? Is it invitees only or can the public attend?
Ask them if they agree with the BBC guy, ie if model and data disagree, it must be because of wrong data
Perhaps you could explain it is the behaviour of American scientists like Mann, Trenberth Gleick, with their mantra of fossil fuel funded, tobaco sponsored creationins falt earth 'denier' that make lots of scpetics, and makes lots of sceptics react, and means UK climate scientist get some collateral damage..
'Hide the decline' influencing policy makers is a good topic..
As is this littele example of 'intolerance'..
Peter Gleick
Hmmm - twitter silence for a few days - time for 'semi plausible explanation'?
I wonder if these 2 documented events pushed him possibly into a rash action.
ie the style and forbes connection and other feature, make him a candidate for the 'fake now' I must accept.
Peter had accused me of being 'incredibly offensiv'e on twitter (ie i thought my followers would mean like the vile abuse Katie Hayhoe had receieved.'
And it TOOK THREE climate scientists, Dr Tamsin Edwards, Prof Richard Betts (met Office, IPCC), AND Prof Katie Hayhoe herself to get him to back down..
in the email exchanges (published with permission) that followed Peter Gleicks thoughts about me, his worldview to 'sceptics' and his attitude to Dr Tamsin Edwards is very enlightening. ..
http://www.realclimategate.org/2012/02/clarifications-and-how-better-to-communicate-science/
What started this is Peter took issue with Dr Edwards blog name, where he pulled the senior scientist card (rather assertively, because some sceptics liked it (me) and it should be said UK climate scientists liked it as well!
http://allmodelsarewrong.com/all-blog-names-are-wrong/
This made me wonder, a bit, just after Heartland..
http://twitter.com/PeterGleick/status/169574788069720065
Tip a Trip! Hope you have a great time and thoroughly enjoy the meeting and all the tough questions.
Break a leg Bish!
PS if you get chance please ask them nicely to update their "Decadal Forecasts/Predictions" let's see if the forecasts are improving or not. They could start with this one:-
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/decadal-prediction
"I'm sure there will be some tough questioning"
I certainly hope so.
For example you could ask them why they still have the false statement on their web page 'How has our climate changed?':
"In the last four decades the Earth has warmed at an accelerated rate",
given the slow-down in warming.
And why the same page claims that
"Evidence shows the rate of sea-level rise is increasing."
when in fact the satellite data from the Colorado sea level research group clearly shows the opposite.
Met Office needs bigger computers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17100224
Oh, don't forget to solicit Richard Betts's views on PG's tips to Tasmin.
Bish, I'm very worried about your twitter friend, Leo Hickman.
After many days of rampant tweeting regarding HI, he seems to have lost his voice (or perhaps his phone).
I wonder if something might have made him sit in a quiet corner and think for a while?
Remind them that a computer that is bigger than the last one will only get to the wrong answer quicker.
Feb 21, 2012 at 9:09 AM | stephen richards>>>>
As the ecologists discovered to their cost in the eighties, The bigger the data range, the more chaotic the output.
In the end the output turned out to be little better than random noise.
Interesting timing, you going on a trip right when this breaks....
Kidding! Just Kidding!
(and Yes, I Am one of the good guys. The joke was too good to pass up)
The only way they can ask tough questions of you is by going for the technical obfuscation manoeuvre. You may like to remind them that they are the owners and operators (is 'serfs' a better word?) of biased climate models (11 out of 12 shots at short-term climate forecasting with a positive bias is not likely to be an accident), and that it is encumbent on them to persuade us that they have a role to play in climate other than distracting us with their model speculations as they venture into timescales within which, as far I can see so far, they have not much credibility. It would be good if they could demonstrate otherwise, since more substance in this area would be very welcome. But it is not up to you to provide it. On the other hand, I suspect you may well have a pleasant time there. The hockey stick is not required for climate alarmism, the public and scientific debates as far as I can see (not very far!) are going against such alarmism, and the high-heid-yin of the Met Office, Chairman Napier, is nothing if not smart about PR and promotion given his success with that at the WWF. So, my guess is that you will not meet with snarling dragons, or executives, but rather with more technical people with a genuine interest in learning more about the climate system. As such, they should welcome you as a friend of science. But who knows? Bon courage!
By travelling from rural Scotland to the Costa Del Devon you will be experiencing at first hand the catastrophic effects of a 2c rise in temperature. I am worried sick. Stay safe, Bishop......
They never learn - BoB Ward apparently believes that Gleick did the world a service.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/feb/21/heartland-institute-leak-climate-attack?CMP=twt_gu
I see the warmist blogs are all swamped with one story
"Leaked document reveals Skeptical Blogger Andrew Montford is secretly funded by a UK government department"
...you did say the Met Office is meeting your expenses didn't you ?
New topic: the authors of the "No Need to Panic" letter to the WSJ have responded to the Trenberth et al letter - link
This is particularly relevant in view of the Lindzen talk at the HoC tomorrow.
I thought I would see how Richard Littlemore handled the outing of Gleick on Desmogblog, couldn't believe my eyes. He is delusional.
http://www.desmogblog.com/whistleblower-authenticates-heartland-documents
richard black must be having a brain cramp. not a word from him so far, but this was the first link on his twitter page -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/correspondents/richardblack/ -
just now:
20 Feb: Huffpo: Kelly Rigg: Forget Logic, It’s Just Climate Schizophrenia
(Kelly Rigg is the Executive Director of the GCCA, a global alliance of 300 organizations cooperating under the banner of the tcktcktck campaign. She has been leading international campaigns for nearly 30 years on climate, energy, oceans, Antarctica and other issues. She was a senior campaign director for Greenpeace International during 20 years with the organization. After leaving Greenpeace she went on to found the Varda Group consultancy providing campaign and strategic advice to a wide range of NGOs, and led the Deep Sea Conservation Coalition’s campaign to protect the high seas from destructive bottom fishing)
Climate schizophrenia is not even limited to countries. As leaked documents revealed last week, 19 public corporations fund the climate change-denying Heartland Institute, some of whom scrambled to distance themselves from Heartland’s climate program. Of all the companies named, I was most disappointed to see Microsoft on the list, albeit only for the provision of around $60,000 worth of free software. Bill Gates the philanthropist is very worried about climate change, but not enough for his company to cut off support to a climate-denial group…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kelly-rigg/climate-change-policies_b_1288473.html
The authors of the "No Need to Panic" letter to the WSJ have responded today to the Trenberth et al letter - see post at 11:53 AM on "Unthreaded" for the link. This is particularly relevant for those who are attending the Lindzen talk at the HoC tomorrow.
(I tried to post to post this here - with the link - over an hour ago, but it's stuck in moderation.)
Pete H
She's on the Discussion page demanding to know where Andrew's funding comes from.
Unbelievable!
Obviously while the cat's away, the woodlice think they're safe to come out and play.
Interesting observation Pete H. I wonder if she'll be in the Bishop's audience?
Interesting observation Pete H. I wonder if she'll be in the Bishop's audience?
Feb 21, 2012 at 4:11 PM | Cumbrian Lad
Only a 70 mile drive from Truro Cumbrian! I mentioned a similar coincidence some time back and got snipped No problem with the snip back then but I feel a little guilty this time as Bish is on the move! Then again, as with all her posts she asks people to "prove" stuff but never offers any of her own!
Feb 21, 2012 at 1:29 PM Mike Jackson
I went to "Discussions" Mike. Thought I had been misdirected to the Daily Mail Comments! Sam jit asn run tactics with no science , only insults.
Oops....Hit and run!
You could ask them what the temperature was in, say, Exeter on this day last year. Did anyone write it down?
I can see the Gruniad headlines now. "Climate Change Denier's expenses funded by the tax-payer!!!!!".
Have fun Bish.
Pete H and Cumbrian - one day she will feel a very silly Bed.
I did think that I probably wouldn't be alive to see it - but actually I am beginning to think that the demise of CAGW might be sooner than I thought.
Remember Bish that no one from the MO is allowed to even consider that you might be right, although I know of some that do.