Bishop Hill Heatwaves affect wheat yields without causing problems
May 12, 2015 Climate: WG2 Further to the last post, the news on wheat yields is similarly interesting. Today Tack et al report that the wheat yields are affected by both extreme spring heat and freezing events in the autumn. Their regression analyses reveal that the benefits from warmer temperatures - namely fewer freezing events - will be outweighed by the losses from increasingly prevalent spring heatwaves. It's all going to be worse than we thought.
Meanwhile, the United Nations is expecting a bumper wheat harvest.
The world is awash in wheat and is likely to remain that way, the UN FAO said in its latest semi-annual Food Outlook report. The past two years have both seen record wheat crops, leaving exceptionally large inventories—and lower prices.
It will be a disaster, but not yet.
Reader Comments (9)
I shall have to take a look at the UN report. Reason? I want to see if they note which countries are seeing the most improvement- and how much warmer those countries are / have gotten, compared to the rest.
The main report refused to load for me, will try again later.
However I noticed the chart at the bottom of the article you link to. Sugar prices spike.... betting that has something to do with growing sugarcane for biofuels.
yeah but, ah... but, no but, well but, possibly, maybe, could be, might be...la,la,la
No news really?..Again!
So after extensive, and expensive research, the conclusion is that there is no problem.
BUT, this does not mean their won't be a problem, but more money is required to establish how big the possible problem could be because otherwise people might question what the UN is doing, wasting money.
When will the optimal wheat growing region reach the Arctic Circle?
One important caveat to keep in mind: Many of the UN predictions “rest on the assumption of normal weather conditions.”
They must have a collective mindset that tells them warming must always be bad and if it can't be proven then its ok to just make a pessimistic guess and say the models predict it, whether such a model exists or not.
Is a "freezing event" the same as frosty weather?
LOL I do wish researchers would actually talk with farmers who know a thing or two about growing food. Such tools.