Richard: thanks for drawing our attention to that extraordinary statement by Professor Sir Brian Hoskins.

China’s attitude to and actions regarding CAGW are arguably the two most important factors in current climate change politics. It must be almost unbearably embarrassing to CAGW protagonists such as the Grantham Institute that the world’s second largest, probably fastest growing and potentially most powerful economy (a position achieved during those "damaging" 30 years) doesn’t seem to believe that their overriding obsession is an important issue and, despite all their loud rhetoric, is allowing its huge GHG emissions to continue for the foreseeable future. What must be even worse is the knowledge – if they’re willing to face it – that China was the prime mover in ensuring the humiliating defeat of the West’s pretensions at the Copenhagen conference; a conference described by Rupert Darwall** as one where the losing side “lost more comprehensively than at any international conference in modern history where the outcome had not been decided beforehand by force of arms”.

After Copenhagen, there’s no going back: global regulation of GHG emissions isn’t going to happen. And China is responsible.

It’s an alarmist nightmare come true. So, in a desperate attempt to persuade themselves otherwise, CAGW protagonists seize on any snippet of evidence suggesting it might not be. And China – content to keep the charade alive – is happy to oblige, conjuring up, as you put it, a fantasy China that bears no relation to reality. Hence a substantial expenditure on renewables is, as Tom Holland points out, contributing only about 2% to power generation compared to 82% by the dreaded coal.

Sad really.

** See the last paragraph of Chapter 31 of his book The Age of Global Warming.

If further evidence were needed to demonstrate China’s intransigence regarding any proposal that it limit its GHG emissions (it’s not – its position is already clear), it would be found in the outcome of a meeting of senior officials in Bonn only two weeks ago. As this report says:

Attempts to reach agreement have foundered above all on a failure to agree on the contribution developing countries should make to curbing the industrial emissions responsible for global warming.

And:

Chinese chief negotiator Su Wei … said China could not impose caps on its rising emissions because it needed time to focus on economic growth, despite U.S. calls for tougher action by Beijing.

That doesn’t do much to support Brian Hoskins’s weird belief that China is planning to take “great strides” towards a green future.

Further to my posts above, there's interesting evidence strongly suggesting that China is not just interested in pursuing its economic development whatever the cost - or indeed in tweaking the noses of those Western nations that, relatively recently (from China's perspective), have patronised and bullied the world's oldest civilisation (although I expect it enjoys that) - but that it is not persuaded by the CAGW hypothesis.

The best known evidence for this is Xie Zhenhua's comment at a developing economies' summit in 2010. Mr Xie, vice-chairman of China's national development and reforms commission, observed that, although mainstream scientific opinion blames emissions from industrial development for climate change, China is not convinced. Here's the quotation:

There are disputes in the scientific community. We have to have an open attitude to the scientific research. There's an alternative view that climate change is caused by cyclical trends in nature itself. We have to keep an open attitude. It is already a solid fact that climate is warming. The major reasons for this climate change is the unconstrained emissions produced by the developed countries in the process of industrialisation. That's the mainstream view [but] there are other views. Our attitude is an open attitude.

That's important enough. But I suggest far more telling evidence is found in this Washington Times article about China's approach to climate negotiations. First here's the opening paragraph:

Global warming does not worry China, a fact that partially accounts for Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s shabby treatment of President Obama at the Copenhagen climate conference last month.

But here are two further extracts (referring significantly to an article in Beijing’s Science Times of September 7 2009 by Ding Zhongli – “China’s most prestigious geophysicist and VP of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, described as ‘the final word on climate science for the Chinese Communist Party"):

American politicians would be wise to remember that, while there may be a “robust” (but not unanimous) consensus among American scientists that human-source carbon dioxide emissions are the major cause of global warming, there is no such view in China. Indeed, so far as Mr. Ding is aware, “the idea that there is a significant correlation between temperature increases and concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide lacks reliable evidence in science.”

Given the deep skepticism of the Chinese Academy of Science’s top climatologist and the prominence accorded his views in the Academy’s publications, it is clear that no one in the Chinese Politburo is truly anxious about the climatic consequences of global warming.

Here's an extract from an abridged English translation of the Science Times article:

… there is no solid scientific evidence to strictly correlate global temperature rise and CO2 concentrations. Some geologists believe that global temperature is related to solar activities and glacial periods. At least human activity is not the only factor to cause the global temperature increase. Up to now not a single scientist has figured out the weight ratio of each factor on global temperature change.

However, the massive propaganda “human activity induced the global temperature increase” has been accepted by the majority of the society in some countries, and it has become a political and diplomatic issue. Why do the developed countries put an arguable scientific problem on the international negotiation table? The real intention is not for the global temperature increase, but for the restriction of the economic development of the developing countries, and for keeping their own advantageous positions.

That last sentence is especially telling.

I wonder if Brian Hoskins and the BBC are even aware of all this.

If the Independent's headline "China agrees to impose carbon targets by 2016" (see the link provided by Jiminy Cricket at 8:10 this morning) were accurate, it would indeed - as the Indy says - be "transformational" and "a dramatic change in China's approach to climate change". After all, as I noted above, China was the prime mover in ensuring the humiliating defeat of the West’s pretensions at the Copenhagen conference in 2009. So, if China has truly changed its mind, international climate change politics have suddenly become utterly different - making the prospect of a realistic international Kyoto-style agreement no longer far-fetched.

No wonder Lord Stern and Greenpeace are getting so excited.

But is it true - has China really agreed "to impose carbon targets by 2016"? Are, as Ed Davy puts it, "the tectonic plates of global climate change negotiations ... really shifting"? Well, it's far less certain than the headline suggests. As the Independent itself says,

The proposal to introduce the cap has been made by China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), agency responsible for planning the country's social and economic development. Although the proposal needs to be accepted by China's cabinet, the State Council, for it to be adopted but experts said the agency is extremely influential and is working with a government that appears to be increasingly committed to the environment.

You see - it's a proposal not a decision. Very different. And will the Politburo accept it? And, even if it does, as always with China's approach to its dealings with the West, it will be the small print that really matters. For example, what will be the level of the cap? And what demands will China make in return? And so on.

In any case, don't forget the Reuters article I mentioned above (6:39 PM on May 14). Less than three weeks ago, at the end of a week of climate change talks in Bonn, the Chinese chief negotiator, Su Wei, was reported as saying that "China could not impose caps on its rising emissions because it needed time to focus on economic growth, despite U.S. calls for tougher action by Beijing".

I suspect the Stern/Greenpeace/Davy excitement may be premature.

Richard:

I suspect that what might be happening is that it suits China to keep alive the possibility of its one day agreeing to a cap. After all, even the Chinese might find it difficult to say officially that the whole CAGW thing is rubbish - even if that's what they really think: see my comment at 6:35 PM on May 15. And, of course, it's useful to keep the market for solar panels etc. going and to see the West twisting itself into knots over this. So they arrange for hints such as this Indy story (no source is provided) to be spread. And they would be amused, but not surprised, to see the Stern/Greenpeace/Davey team grab it eagerly and without any thought of scepticism.

The bad news for the rest of us is that it gives all those warmist interests every excuse for spinning the whole thing out: no let up in piling on the pressure for increased national GHG reduction programmes. And, of course, it only increases the perceived need for more international conferences. Here's an extract from the Indy article:

Mr Davey said he wants the UK to take a leading part in the global climate change discussions as part of the European negotiating block. However, he said he was concerned that the rise of the climate sceptic Ukip party could drag members of the Tory right in that direction and damage Britain's credibility in debate on global warming.

I've been searching for something a little more authoritative and detailed supporting that Independent story. I may have found it here. It's an NDRC Notice dated 9 May 2013 - i.e. it's very recent. Here's the introductory paragraph:

Since the State Council proposed targets of the actions to control greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 last November, all regions have taken the initiative to implement the central policies and arrangements. The development of low-carbon industry, construction of low-carbon city, and promotion of low-carbon life are proposed in many areas, and a number of provinces also have applied to our Commission for the development of low-carbon pilot project. To actively explore the practices and experience that can not only promote economic development and improve people’s livelihood, but also combat climate change, reduce carbon intensity and promote green development in China’s rapid development stages of industrialization and urbanization is very necessary. Agreed by the leaders of the State Council, we will organize the development of pilot program on low-carbon provinces and low-carbon cities.

OK, there's a lot of vague "green" sounding stuff there (as there is throughout the document) - but anything about China agreeing "to impose carbon targets by 2016"? Er ... no.