Discussion > President Trump
"With higher guestimates for ECS now being discarded, "
Only by sceptics like Nic Lewis, who are using an approach which underestimates ECS.
May 13, 2018 at 11:13 AM | Entropic man
Genuine observations agree with Lewis and Curry. What evidence was used to over guestimate ECS by 97% of Climate Scientists, including the IPCC?
The only exponential rise in Climate Science has been money wasted. Trump is not prepared to waste more US Taxpayers Money, and needs a reduced number of Climate Scientists.
ECS can be added to the list of reliability v unrelibility issues in Climate Science to sort out and discard the Consensus Sheep.
golf charlie
Entropic Man
Is it because Climate Science Models are failing to deliver, that Climate Scientists are now relying on failed business and Economic Models?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/05/12/dana-nuccitelli-support-a-carbon-tax-or-climate-will-punish-trump-voters/
golf charlie
Obama, Clapper and Brennan paid present Cambridge UK resident Stefan Halper$282,295 to to spy on the Trump campaign.
The spook ship is springing leaks all over the place
Halper's antics and connections indicate that he might well be one of the organisers of the UK's security services participation in the "Get Trump" game.
tomo
The real problems will show up when we enter the exponential phase and the rate of change accelerates.And, when this does not happen, what will be your excuse, then?
Sorry, Entropic man, but given your utter inability to provide any evidence for any of the claims you make, that does seem to be the most likely probability.
Radical Rodent
Nothing succeeds like success.....
"Muellered" company didn't even exist
tomo
Radical Rodent,
Whatever Stephan Halper was up to here:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/16/intelligence-experts-cut-ties-cambridge-spy-seminars-amid-claims/
.... can we assume he was being a naughty boy, or spook? When was he wumbled by wascally Wussians as a useful idiot?
golf charlie
gc
doze wikkid wushins have lots of cash and the freelancers / mercenaries generally don't care where their cash comes from.
Sure there are some that have straightforward political motivations but I'd guess that there are many that fancy themselves as kingmakers, influencers and intriguers.
It rather looks like UK spooks have got way off task - given the assorted leaks one has to wonder if that's a method of neutralising them.
In a world where Ronald McDonald makes better sense than Sadiq Khan anything can happen.
tomo
Halper/Steele/Dodgy Dossier Richard Dearlove?
https://www.emptywheel.net/2018/05/11/stefan-halper-wasnt-downstream-from-the-steele-dossier/
This interview with Richard Dearlove is interesting because of what he declines to confirm or deny!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=DrCRkyl7CZg
golf charlie
cor, Saudis 'n Maltese gangstas....
I doubt a feature film will cut it .... more like a box set.
tomo
apprently ............
Iran Threatens to Release Names of Western Officials Who Took Bribes to Pass Nuke Deal
Probably safe to say that's going to upset a few folk.
tomo
tomo, trying to match names and family links of one Saudi Prince, to another, is not always straightforward, and requires care.
Saudi Arabia had a revolution/purge to remove the corruption that went against the interests of The Ruling Family. Whether any of the missing billion$ helped finance a change in US Foreign Policy concerning Israel is not clear.
One of the Princes arrested was: Prince Turki bin Nasser Al Saud, former head of the presidency of meteorology and environment
more info here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Saudi_Arabian_purge
Michael Avenatti enjoys motor racing, so do some Saudi Princes.
https://web.archive.org/web/20120330190941/http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentID=2010111687482
ABU DHABI: The final stop of Formula 1 World Championship at Abu Dhabi has been a memorable event for Red Bull racing champions. Before the start of the final round of F1 race championship, Red Bull champion Prince Abdulaziz Bin Turki Al-Faisal was crowned on the podium as the champion of the second round of Porsche Middle East Cup which was held as part of the side activities of the final round of F1 World Championship that witnessed crowning Red Bull Racing team champion Sebastian Vettel of Germany as world champion.
"The Moslems" may be in agreement about their opposition to the existence of Israel. Saudis and Iranians have very different ideologies and intentions towards Israel. I would guess that the Saudis have expressed some concerns to the US about the growing threat to peace in the Middle East posed by an enriched Uranium/Iranian power.
golf charlie
tomo, this is who signed it.
"The Iran nuclear deal framework was a preliminary framework agreement reached in 2015 between the Islamic Republic of Iran and a group of world powers: the P5+1 (the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China—plus Germany) and the European Union."
golf charlie
Radical rodent
Science nowadays is Kuhnian. A successful theory has five Cs.
Evidence from a large number of experiments and observations builds a description of reality which is coherent( makes sense), consistent( different lines of evidence agree) and consilient (agrees with evidence from other areas of science).
The evidence forms the basis of a paradigm. This is a description of reality good enough to be generally accepted by most workers in the field, a consensus.
Science is always conditional. There is always the possibility that new evidence will require the paradigm to be modified or extended (or even occasionally abandoned).
The CO2 Greenhouse effect paradigm meets the five Cs. It has coherence, consistence, consistence, conditionality and consensus.
That is as good as you get in reality.
Claims that any evidence is definitive go beyond what science can supply.
Refusal to accept anything less than definitive is a denialist attitude known as the “impossible standards meme”,
Entropic man
May 14, 2018 at 5:39 PM | Entropic man
Is that an acknowledgement that Climate Science has no supporting evidence?
"The CO2 Greenhouse effect paradigm meets the five Cs. It has coherence, consistence, consistence, conditionality and consensus". It lacks maths. Science, history, geography etc are also missing.
golf charlie
Thank you, GC. I have been stumped by this post from Entropic man, as I was utterly flummoxed by what must be his definitions of coherence, consistence, consilience, conditionality and consensus (I decided to let slide the idea that science has ever depended on consensus – quite the opposite, if history is any judge – but, hey-ho…). Certainly, climate science makes very little sense (oops… coherence gone), and there seems to be very little consistency, so that goes, too. There is also a surprising amount of climate science that seems to ignore or refuse to correlate with other areas of science, so there goes consilience. Hmmm… shall I bother with the final “C”?
Radical Rodent
Not my night!
Make that
coherence, consistence, consilience, conditionality and consensus.
Thell me, ladies. Why do two people so monumentally ignorant of science feel able to deny it?
Entropic man
May 14, 2018 at 9:17 PM | Entropic man
How does a retired Science Teacher cope whilst failing to understand the difference between male and female?
Don't you understand why Kuhn is relied upon by non Sciences like Social Science? And now Climate Science?
golf charlie
Golf charlie
Lacking photos or personal acquaintance I have to go by what you say.
Since you sometimes post as Gwendolyn I presume you are female, or at least somewhere on the LBGTQI spectrum.
I dont know for sure whether Radical rodent is a buck or a doe, but probably the latter.
Come to think of it, I post as Entropic Man but I might be Entropic Woman.
The ideal scientific method goes back to Bacon, thought the concept of falsifiability through controlled laboratory experiment is Popper's.
This sharp edged binary approach works beautifully for simple physical processes which can be isolated in the laboratory and subject to controlled trials. i=e/r or t=2π√l/g are easy to test.
Unfortunately the emphasis has shifted to complex systems such as biology and climate. ∆f = 5.35ln(C/Co) is much harder to test.
Entropic man
May 15, 2018 at 12:48 AM | Entropic man
I expect Lewandowsky is convinced by Kuhn. Unfortunately, a fabricated Consensus is confirmation of failure in science.
golf charlie
apprently (sic) ............Iran Threatens to Release Names of Western Officials Who Took Bribes to Pass Nuke Deal
Probably safe to say that's going to upset a few folk.
May 14, 2018 at 11:33 AM | Commenter tomo
Top Iranian adviser threatens to expose those who took bribes to make the Iran deal happen
Gotta sell those big fat A-380's.
clipe
Here's a big fat stupid A-380 at YYZ getting it's wing fixed after a catering truck collapsed onto it.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0BzIOEP4fsmZ8NWVjNzVmNWUtMjNmOC00OTg1LWJkYTctMzVjYzM3ZGQ2Y2E4
clipe
clipe
Looking at the price of internal flights in Iran - if they ever decided to get into international budget air travel there'd be some clucking in a lot of henhouses.
Given the EU vs. Gazprom malarkey presently being discussed in unthreaded - it seems logical that if senior figures are leveraging their high public office for personal gain by using their position - some names common to both matters might just appear.
tomo
abusing their position - obviously
tomo
clipe & May 15, 2018 at 11:05 AM | tomo
Selfish needs seem to take precedence over virtue signalling, provided no one finds out.
Iran should name and shame. The info will be more reliable than Steele's dodgy dossier.
golf charlie
May 13, 2018 at 8:15 AM | tomo
The Democrats thought they had bought the Consensus of the entire DOJ and FBI.
Every "leaked" story that now emerges attacking Trump, Nunes etc, just confirms that the panic is developing and spreading like a nuclear mushroom cloud. The shock waves are rebounding, and causing further self inflicted friendly fire damage to the Democrats.
Mueller thought he had limitless supplies of ammunition, supplied by DOJ/FBI etc. It is almost all dud or counterfeit. Who gave him the confidence to believe in the Consensus of the DOJ/FBI?
Fabricated Consensus = Group Think = Group Fail