Jan 9, 2020 at 12:09 AM Phil Clarke

Both Gergis papers have been exposed as Peer Reviewed lies and corruption. You said Gergis proved Mann. As what?

What does Gergis prove about those chosen to Peer Review Climate Science?

Grant Foster aka Tamino defended Gergis at Real Climate aka the lair of lying Hockey Teamsters.

If Gergis wasn't lying and none of the other was being deliberately dishonest, were they chosen because of their complete incompetence?

Meanwhile, back at the Thread .......
Hubert Lamb established the existence of the MWP and LIA using evidence gleaned from historical records. These have stood the test of time

Jan 9, 2020 at 1:32 AM | Unregistered Commenter golf charlie

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/01/what-the-bom-dont-say-its-not-the-hottest-year-in-australia-according-to-satellites/

The Green Blob have chosen to make this a hot topic about Global Warming.

Google "Australia BOM Scandal"

"Tim Flannery" provides a long list of quotes, made by him. He has cost Australians billion$, and never admitted a mistake.

Phil C, perhaps you might supply an answer. I have asked elsewhere but no one supplied one. There is almost continuous reference to weather conditions altering to make Australian fire hazards worse - usually increased temperatures and wind speeds are suggested. The influence of increased winds is obvious, but why should increased temperatures after a long severe drought have any effect? The fuel load is already bone dry so increased temperatures will not reduce moisture content. I did wonder if eucalyptus contained compounds that have particularly low flash points, but vegetable oils have much higher flash points and autoignition temperatures than petroleum fluids. Also for plants to accumulate highly sensitive compounds making them susceptible to fire would not be evolutionary wise.
I find it very difficult to believe that an increase of only a few degrees Celsius makes already drought ravaged vegetation more susceptible to fire. I am not even sure it makes fighting the fires more difficult since most of the high temperatures firefighters experience comes from the fire itself.

"I did wonder if eucalyptus contained compounds that have particularly low flash points, but vegetable oils have much higher flash points and autoignition temperatures than petroleum fluids.
Jan 10, 2020 at 2:54 PM AK"

Olive trees burn very well around the Mediterranean. Along some of the Greek and Croatian islands and coastlines, olive groves have been abandoned as older generations have died, and younger generations have had better things to do than maintain olive trees and clear away deadwood, leaves and other fuel load.

Irrespective of the method of ignition, olive wood burns very fiercely, and I assume oily eucalyptus does the same.

I don't disagree. It is the anomalously high temperatures over a long period of time that created the conditions for the unprecedented bush fires. Higher temperatures increase the Vapour Pressure Deficit, which in turn accelerates drying of the fuels, and Australia just experienced its warmest December on record.

Not all the unusual heat is down to global warming btw, localised oscillations in sea surface temperatures have unfortunately peaked at the worst time and this has contributed, but GW has raised the baseline over which these operate.

Phil. Thank you for your reply but it does not fully address my question. The media are claiming that upcoming higher air temperatures will cause increased Australian fire hazard conditions and may cause now-.separate fires to coalesce into "megafires". I cannot see how a "vapour pressure deficit" can be involved since the fuel load is already bone-dry and essentially contains no moisture that can be removed. I repeat, I cannot see any link between ambient temperatures and fire hazard after a long, severe but not unprecedented drought.

I also take issue with your " It is the anomalously high temperatures over a long period of time that created the conditions for the unprecedented bush fires." Where is the evidence of "anomalously high temperatures? Why do you say the wildfires are unprecedented? What about 1939?

Golf Charlie. Yes indeed, when we lived in California we had eucalyptus in our gardens and needed to vigorously prune them. They constituted a real fire hazard in our Mediterranean climate. Eucalyptus constituted a greater hazard than olive trees because they were tall and shed loads of tinder-dry bark. The problem was that they commonly were planted for quick shade, but needed pruning just when shade was at a premium.

"vapour pressure deficit"?

Of course, nowt to do with fuel load, restrictions on fire breaks, closure of access roads......

VPD sounds........"sciency"

The media are claiming that upcoming higher air temperatures will cause increased Australian fire hazard conditions and may cause now-.separate fires to coalesce into "megafires".

Do you have an example of such a claim? It does not add up to me either.

I also take issue with your " It is the anomalously high temperatures over a long period of time that created the conditions for the unprecedented bush fires." Where is the evidence of "anomalously high temperatures? Why do you say the wildfires are unprecedented? What about 1939?

2019 was the hottest year on record in Australia. It also brought the hottest day, hottest summer and hottest December.

As I posted earlier, not all this of this is climate change, the Indian Ocean Dipole was positive, but some of it was.

It was also the driest year on record, the first time both records have overlapped. Plenty of the people on the ground are saying many aspects of the current season are unprecedented.

The NSW Rural Fire Service says the scale of what has burned in that state is unprecedented at this point of the fire season. By Monday, 3.41 million hectares had burned. “To put it in perspective, in the past few years we have had a total area burned for the whole season of about 280,000 hectares,” RFS spokeswoman Angela Burford said.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/25/factcheck-why-australias-monster-2019-bushfires-are-unprecedented

Try today's BBC News Phil; they've been regailing us with this nonsense all day.

Terrible though they are, it's a bit difficult to argue that the current bush fires are unprecedented:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Friday_bushfires

"Internationally, south-eastern Australia is considered one of the three most fire-prone landscapes on Earth, along with southern California and the southern Mediterranean. Major Victorian bushfires occurred on Black Thursday in 1851, where an estimated 5 million hectares were burnt, followed by another blaze on Red Tuesday in February 1891 in South Gippsland when about 260,000 hectares were burnt, 12 people died and more than 2,000 buildings were destroyed. The deadly pattern continued with more major fires on Black Sunday on 14 February 1926 sees the tally rise to sixty lives being lost and widespread damage to farms, homes and forests.

Considered in terms of both loss of property and loss of life the 1939 fires were one of the worst disasters, and certainly the worst bushfire event, to have occurred in Australia up to that time. Only the subsequent Ash Wednesday bushfires in 1983 and the Black Saturday bushfires in 2009 have resulted in more deaths. In terms of the total area burnt the Black Friday fires are the second largest, burning 2 million hectares, with the Black Thursday fires of 1851 having burnt an estimated 5 million hectares."

I'm not aware of any agreed measure for how 'bad' a fire is, and given the distress happening right now a 'my fire was worse than your fire' contest is perhaps in dubious taste, however….

A series of bushfires, also known around the world as wildfires, are burning across Australia, predominantly in the south-east. The 2019–20 bushfire season is of notable intensity compared to previous seasons as it has burned an estimated 10.7 million hectares (26 million acres; 107,000 square kilometres; 41,000 square miles), destroyed over 5,900 buildings (including over 2,204 homes) and killed 28 people as of 8 January 2020. An estimated 1 billion animals have also been killed and some endangered species may be driven to extinction. The bushfires are regarded by the NSW Rural Fire Service as the worst bushfire season in memory. In December 2019, the New South Wales Government declared a state of emergency after record-breaking temperatures and prolonged drought exacerbated the bushfires.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Australian_bushfire_season

The bushfire season still has around 6 weeks to run.

"The bushfire season still has around 6 weeks to run.
Jan 11, 2020 at 9:39 AM Phil Clarke"

Is this based on evidence from previous years of unprecedented fires?

Even Phil is now quoting rubbish about "record-breaking temperatures .... exacerbated the bushfires" having previously refuted this link. Joe Nova points out that some of the most devastating fires are located in alpine and coastal areas where temperatures are well below the "unprecedented" highs being quoted.

The point is the preceding period of high temperatures, not so much temperatures today. I didn't realise this was such a hard point to grasp. And one of the things fires do is, they move.

On September 14, after an outbreak of fires across the Northern Tablelands, high winds caused embers to spot more than 10 kilometres onto the the centre of Wytaliba.
After an initial emergency the fire weather abated, but over the next week the fire spread across much of the property.

In a large operation more than 20 RFS trucks, more than 100 fire fighters, bulldozers and waterbombers were successfully deployed to help defend our homes. All were saved. Much of Wytaliba was blacked out.

Carol (Glen Innes mayor with 20 year RFS service medal) and I have a large cleared area around our double brick house.

That September fire burned to our perimeter. This was just two months ago.

Everything that should be done, was done and lots more.

The fire that came last Friday was of another order of magnitude altogether. A crown fire roaring in from the west on a hot afternoon with an 80km per hour wind, it wasn't on the ground, it was a firestorm in the air, raining fire.

There was no fuel on the ground, it was already burned. The heat ahead of the fire front ignited nearly everything in its path. Before he saw any flame my neighbor's car exploded. They just escaped with their lives.

Our house was severely damaged but not destroyed. We weren't home. Others were not so lucky. Wytaliba has lost two lives and more than half our homes, our school, our bridge our wildlife and 40 years of work to build a community. What was our paradise is now ash.

Thanks to the heroics of Wytaliba RFS and residents, and the Reddestone RFS who incredibly crossed the burning bridge to help us, some was saved.

"Today's not the day to talk about climate change".....No, yesterday was the day, or the day before, or the month before, or the year before,....but it didn't get a mention. Now we have the reality and the mention it gets is, "don't talk about it now".

So, the politicians (and the media) turn the talk to hazard reduction burns, or the lack of them, as something else to blame on the inner-city raving lunatics.

We had a bushfire two months ago that burned most of our property. It didn't matter. It burned again.

This is climate changed. We're in the worst drought recorded. A million hectares of bush has burned. Barnaby says it's Green voters and the sun's magnetic field.

Pray for rain, pray harder for leadership.

https://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/6494097/opinion-we-did-burnoffs-badja-sparks-hits-back/

Of course fires move, so the fact that a crown fire can affect a previously burnt area (i.e. no remaining ground fuel buildup) cannot be used as evidence that fuel buildup is not an important factor influencing where areas of wildfire are initiated.

"I'm not aware of any agreed measure for how 'bad' a fire is, and given the distress happening right now a 'my fire was worse than your fire' contest is perhaps in dubious taste". I don't disagree. Will you criticise the dubious taste of climate hysterics seeking to capitalise on this event?

But it was you who used the word "unprecedented", and they aren't unprecedented. Look at the table at the bottom of the Wikipedia page, and you'll readily see that:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bushfires_in_Australia

If you read that article, you'll also read this:

"According to Tim Flannery (The Future Eaters), fire is one of the most important forces at work in the Australian environment. Aboriginal people used fire-stick farming to burn vegetation to facilitate hunting and promote the growth of bush potatoes and other edible ground-level plants. In central Australia, they used fire in this way to manage their country for thousands of years. Flannery writes that "The use of fire by Aboriginal people was so widespread and constant that virtually every early explorer in Australia makes mention of it. It was Aboriginal fire that prompted James Cook to call Australia 'This continent of smoke'."

However Flannery goes on to say: "When control was wrested from the Aborigines and placed in the hands of Europeans, disaster resulted." Fire suppression became the dominant paradigm in fire management leading to a significant shift away from traditional burning practices. A 2001 study found that the disruption of traditional burning practices and the introduction of unrestrained logging meant that many areas of Australia were now prone to extensive wildfires especially in the dry season. A similar study in 2017 found that the removal of mature trees by Europeans since they began to settle in Australia may have triggered extensive shrub regeneration which presents a much greater fire fuel hazard. Another factor was the introduction of Gamba grass imported into Queensland as a pasture grass in 1942, and planted on a large scale from 1983. This can fuel intense bushfires, leading to loss of tree cover and long-term environmental damage.

Plants have evolved a variety of mechanisms to survive or even require bushfires (possessing epicormic shoots or lignotubers that sprout after a fire, or developing fire-resistant or fire-triggered seeds), or even encourage fire (eucalypts contain flammable oils in the leaves) as a way to eliminate competition from less fire-tolerant species]"

Humans cause immense damage to our environment. Modern environmentalists obsessed with climate change often ignore the obvious damage caused by humans in favour of emphasising climate change, and sometimes the damage the environment themselves in the name of saving it from climate change.

"Pray for rain, pray harder for leadership.
Jan 11, 2020 at 11:15 AM Phil Clarke"

Pray for divine retribution against the Green Blob.
If God has run out of lightning strikes and thunderbolts, lengthy prison sentences and big fines would show some mercy towards the unrepentant sinners, intent on destroying the environment.

Desperate times indeed for the World Wide Green Blob as they launch a propaganda blitzkrieg to divert from their misguided misinformation

But it was you who used the word "unprecedented", and they aren't unprecedented. Look at the table at the bottom of the Wikipedia page, and you'll readily see that

So far : 25 lives lost, 10m ha burnt, 5,900 properties including over 2,204 homes destroyed, 1 billion animals killed. Species extinctions likely. Which previous bushfire season was worse?

The numbers of properties up in smoke is unprecedented, (I'm relying on the wiki table you cited which may be unwise). Previous years have had higher numbers in one of these categories, (for example 2002 had a greater area burnt, the table does not mention any deaths and gives the fire season as August to November (?), but the relevant wiki page states a total of 7 fatalities), however the scale and combination of destructive effects is to the best of my knowledge, unprecedented. Several experts and the NSW Fire Service are saying much the same thing. I would be delighted to be proven wrong.

Jan 11, 2020 at 12:42 PM Mark Hodgson
Jan 11, 2020 at 11:41 AM AK

Tim Flannery has been one of Australia's biggest financial liabilities when it comes to Global Warming, but his comments about forest fire and forest management are correct.

The concept of a "wood" or "forest" depends on location in England, before being extended to other parts of the British Isles and further afield.

It is not possible to tell from selectively edited TV News footage, how much of the fire is predominantly at groundlevel (+10 feet) burning through scrub and litter, or burning through the canopies (crown fire as per AK) Many species of tree have evolved to survive scrub fires prior to releasing their seeds on to cleared soil, so fire is part of the natural life cycles and environment.

Houses built out of timber are not good at surviving fires spreading at high or low level.

In the USA, building a house in the shade of a tree remains important to stay cool. The recent fires in California involved many such homes. In the UK, particularly the South East, proximity to a large tree poses a risk from subsidence if on a clay soil and may reduce its value.

Continuous tree canopies exclude light from the forest floor. The ground beneath dense planted conifers is sterile. Beneath mixed deciduous trees, there is variety throughout the year.

English visitors and settlers did not understand what the natives were doing in any land they went to because they knew nothing about how to farm what grew locally. With all this history of past mistakes and misunderstandings, the Green Blob have demonstrated how dangerous and lethal their ideas are.

So far : 25 lives lost, 10m ha burnt, 5,900 properties including over 2,204 homes destroyed, 1 billion animals killed.
Jan 11, 2020 at 3:24 PM Phil Clarke

A comparatively minor trail of death and destruction leading back to the Green Blob.

To continue this dubious taste argument:

From the wikipedia table

2019 (to date) - 26M acres burned

2002 - 37M acres burned

1974/5 season - 42.6M acres burned (since the table separates the states in that season, but lumps them together in the current season, this requires an ability to add up)

1967 - Tasmanian Black Friday bushfires - 62 fatalities

1939 - Victoria Black Friday bushfires - 71 fatalities

1926 - Victoria bushfires - 60 fatalities

As you say, this is all in poor taste, but it does demonstrate that the claim that the current bushfires are unprecedented is simply not true.

Ah, so before 1974, the relevant metric is fatalities, then it magically switches to area burned? Some of the numbers in that table are suspect, but if we take a combination of fatalities/area burned, /property destroyed then I don't think any previous single year has been as destructive overall across all three categories.

2019 (so far)

29 deaths
26 million acres,
5900 buildings (>2204 homes)

2002

7 deaths (none in the table, but elsewhere I've seen this number)
37m acres
No properties in the table

1974

6 deaths
42m acres (maybe)
40 homes

1967

62 deaths
.65m acres
1293 homes

1939

71 deaths
4.9m acres
2000 buildings

1926

60 deaths
1000 buildings

So this year is unprecedented in the sense that no previous season destroyed as much property and also in the sense that previous years that were high in one metric, were low in another. No year has been as destructive overall if you consider the spectrum of area burned, deaths and properties destroyed. Presumably this is why NSW Rural Fire Services Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said it was absolutely the worst bushfire season on record.

(BTW I'm not a fan of this table, it seems to have been assembled from disparate sources that probably have different methodologies. Some years it counts 'buildings', others just houses. For example the entries for 2002 and 1974 include data from the Northern Territories. About 30-40m hectare of savannah, mainly in the NT, burn and regrow each year, not really comparable to the burning forests we're seeing now, and it's not clear if this number is included in other years. Apples and Oranges. See here.)

Jan 11, 2020 at 8:43 PM Phil Clarke
Is this a divergence of data sources problem resolved by Hockey Teamster statisticians. Should it be called the "Hockey Teamster Aussie Nature Trick"

Are you now choosing to ignore satellite data when it suits?