Discussion > Covid 19 stuff
Is the growth exponential ?
UK seems to double daily deaths every 4 days
most other countries double daily deaths every 3 days
China/Iran/Japan .. I don’t trust the stats
Cases seem to vary massively by region
though it is argued that remote areas will catch up
London has just under 3,000 cases so that is that is 1 in every 3,000 people
..I suspect that it's not uniform and some streets may have much higher and some areas almost nothing
My region of South Humber has 8 cases ..no deaths of course
So that is about 1 in every 50,000 people
On BiasedBBC it is felt that the daily press conference is a menace
cos the reporters are all metroliberal zombies, who are out only to score points against Boris
Likewise news reporters are inclined to creepage in their language
Staying at home is always referred to "staying indoors", essential work is referred to as "key workers"
.. well farm work is not Key work like NHS but it is essential.
The media are inclined to be preachy implying Covid19 is as bad as Ebola ..which it isn't
They keep insisting people not going out are SAVING lives
well if there is not one infected person in their town, they are NOT saving lives.
The same media often ignore big crimes etc.
At the opposite end of the normal media , there are some polemicists who say the government was bad to rush into shutdown.
Peter Hitchens is one he says Julia HB has banned him from her TalkRadio show
He had a Mail article
John Ionides has done an article and has a paper coming out
epidemiologist and statistician John Ioannidis argues that we lack good data on many aspects of the Covid-19 epidemic, and seems to suggest that we should not take drastic actions to curtail the spread of the virus until the data are more certain
March 17
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/
The next day Marc Lipsitch put out a rebuttal article
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/18/we-know-enough-now-to-act-decisively-against-covid-19/
and there is a return comment
John Ioannidis asked me to post this response to @mlipsitch
- Dear Marc,
I have tremendous respect for you and your work, and I am grateful for the immense effort you have put on this important issue at these difficult and uncertain times.
However, calling my piece silly and chastising STAT for publishing a howler does not help.
My main plea is for better data. I will not espouse any single point in the wide range of estimates as an “expert”, in all my life I have avoided showing off as an expert, and I continuously get reminded about how little I know. I agree this is a crisis and we need to respond urgently and to consider also the worst scenario. But we are making monumental, unprecedented decisions with unknown outcomes.
I am not saying aggressive measures are wrong right now, but we need to collect urgently unbiased data for informing the next step.
We have no clue what the most aggressive measures might cause if we have to maintain them not just for 2 weeks or a month, but for many months, if not years. Without data we are totally blind.
Can we please avoid insults and focus on the science?
He will publish a proper paper on this soon
Today's England stats are 4 hours late already
There is another PHE page with spreadheet files
Here's the /ourworldindata.org/coronavirus page
I don't know why people put different size countries on the same raw numbers charts
Some smaller countries like Holland/Switzerland have a much higher case per 100K population than the UK does
BBC More or Less have a stats special starting at 9:30pm
My death pattern watch
Sunday was a blip down
Monday a blip up
Tuesday a big blip down ..especially in England
claim is England deaths dropped from 83 to 28
Spiegelhalter is saying amazing thing
#1 It seems Covid is killing people who would have died in the next 12 months of something else
#2 However that is a problem cos it's coming all at once so could overwhelm the NHS
So in a way for individual grandads its not a big deal
but for the country it is a lot.
Seems the prog was recorded , so no comments on latest stats
Roger Highfield's blog (Sci-Museum guy)
The idea that the pandemic can be contained and ‘will go away…does not strike me as plausible,’ says Prof Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Officer for England (CMO).
Why do scientists seem to be arguing about how to curb the pandemic?
That’s the way science works – theory and ideas are endlessly challenged by data, new ideas and the results of experiments.
When there is a conflict between evidence and theory, a new, better theory results.
(That's not how it works in Global Warming .. it's all dogma and exclude skeptics)
Tucker Carlson takes apart the libmedia on Covid19
"they shout liar at Trump"
..who's the liars ?? the libmedia are projecting themselves
..He shows by quoting their own headlines
Some truly putrid antics from CNN et al collected by Tucker Carlson
Some truly putrid antics from CNN et al collected by Tucker Carlson
Mar 26, 2020 at 2:59 AM tomo
As promoted by Phil Clarke
Deaths in the US just crossed 1,000. 247 yesterday and doubling every three days. There will be another 1,000 by the end of the weekend, then from early next week about a thousand a day. Assuming no reduction in the exponential rate, they will reach a 9/11 (3,000) deaths every day by the weekend after.
The US will probably storm past Italy and China to take topspot on the number of cases leader board on the same timescale, if not sooner.
One hopes nobody listens to Trump's open for business by Easter insanity. I mean, what can he be thinking?
woo! stupid Americans are dying and it's all orange man's doing!
SEIU Union in California *Suddenly* Finds Mysterious Stash of 39 Million Face Masks
Want a bogeyman?
here's a candidate
Apologies, serious error. I wrote the US might achieve the No. 1 slot in terms of countries with cases in a matter of days or weeks.
مرگ بر آمریکا
ah, OK Phil .... you believe The Chinese Communist Party - there's a serious error right there.
CCP trying to wriggle out of responsibility
whaddya make of the reputed 20 million mobile phones dropping off line in Xi Jinping's back yard?
Mar 26, 2020 at 6:15 PM | Phil Clarke
You are clearly hoping that the death toll will exceed that due to corrupted Climate Science.
Official daily stats are co-ordinated by Public Health England
Dashboard showing reported cases of coronavirus in the UK, including new cases, cases by upper tier local authority in England and number of deaths.
example tweet
Everyday at about 4:30pm they put out an update (today's is very very late)
it includes the new daily test count calculated at 9am
and the new daily death count calculated at 1pm
So I refer to the report released on Friday as Thursday's Stat's cos they always apply to the day before
- Desktop version ... - mobile version
After they are released two guys tweet summaries
When new UK stats does come out 2 guys provide summary data
#1 Running totals Mana LeMons
#2 Growth trend graph PengWu
Remember the death count seems accurate cos death cases reach hospital
But the infection count only includes severe cases that are tested
Most community cases are either untested or not even noticed. It's suspected an official count of 1,000 means 10,000 total community count
So with the official count at 5,000.. maybe 50,000 people have been infected across the UK