Unthreaded
Bonus for today only...
John Campbell talking to Prof. Robert Clancy. They hit my favourite bugbear of guidlines turning into rules, and while my formulation of "N = 1" isn't there, Clancy certainly hits the point that the person in front of you is the one you're dealing with, not some statistical distribution that suits the bureaucrats.
Ross Lea,
Thanks for that link. Enjoyed it (Happer, not Harper BTW). Particularly liked his Pushkin quote:
All you need is a trough and there'll be pigs.That might be a good way to look at things. We don't have a pigs problem, it's a troughs problem. Bit tricky getting past the pigs guarding them though.
Big fan of Jo Nova's, but there's one thing I really don't like about her forum: all topics there are pretty much dead within two days. I put it down to a couple of things: (1) that she creates a new "unthreaded" every day and (2) that the red and green thumbs are so prominent. Many people view the thumbs as a score for how good their comment is (IMO they promote an echo-chamber). The daily unthreadeds give a new opportunity for people to get top posting and highest green count, so the older threads get dropped.
I have suggested to Jo that she do away with the daily unthreadeds and adopt one like BH's: a permanent fixture where everybody gets their time at the top then slips into history. That would get rid of the rush of commenters to the daily unthreadeds and put the spotlight on her excellent articles. They might live a little longer that way.
I was in a short discussion with Joanne late last week (thread dead now of course) where I was suggesting that stalagmites mightn't be any better than bristlecone pines as thermometers. Not sure if she got to reading my last comment on the topic, but having looked into it a bit now, I'm feeling that, not only are stalagmites iffy, even the ice cores are on shaky ground.
Don't oxygen-18 levels in ice cores reflect evaporation, not just temperature? And given that washing on the line dries much more quickly on a cool windy day than when it's warm but calm, I suspect those values have a higher wind component than temperature. Of course both will be there and I doubt they can be untangled.
Greatly enjoyed the latest EconTalk looking into medical outcomes. Fun examples. Most amusing was the reduced mortality in a hospital when all the senior medicos were away at a conference. Fits well with First do no harm.
I have just watched the Heartland Instute presentation by Dr. Harper
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_nUz_Z7YQQ
I understand Dr. Harper is to give a series of talks in Ausralia.
I is a great pity He has not been invited to do a similar tour in the UK.
MikeHig,
Yes, hydro makes much more sense than batteries for the few things that batteries are good for (I hear that batteries' even faster response makes their use preferable for quick bursts to hold frequency).
Australia's Snowy Hydro Scheme has given very useful service to NSW and Victoria since the 1950s. Unfortunately the politicians have traded off its good name for the "Snowy Hydro 2" vanity project, which is purely pumped hydro aimed at filling in the gaps in wind/solar power. Of course those gaps are so large that it doesn't have a chance and we'd need hydro schemes along the whole east coast except (a) there's not enough water and (b) there's not enough money. Of course (b) applies to wind power too.
Have reached about halfway through the Shawn Ryan interview with Vivek Ramaswamy as recommended at Jo Nova's. He is a very impressive speaker and I agree with nearly everything he says, but I have my doubts about him. The obvious things were in the initial banter ("Thanks man" and the like), which were phony, but forgiveable on the basis of nerves/warmup or whatever. I think, at heart, I just don't believe him when he says these problems of the huge sclerotic bureaucracies will be solved so easily. I don't believe that at all.
He invokes the spirit of George Washington, and says that a revolution is needed. Yes, I think that's true, but is he sincere? His proposed path has no parallel in Washington. Washington became President *after* the revolution. Ramaswamy says he wants to be made President so he can start the revolution. As revolutions go, that seems a bit unconventional.
Further to the post about Marcel Boiteux, in the same time frame as the massive nuclear programme, EdF (under his direction, presumably) also expanded its hydro resources dramatically. This was/is the perfect complement to the nuclear fleet as it is almost instantaneously dispatchable.
In the "beyond parody" category we have this link (seen at Jo Nova's) where geology students are, apparently, surprised at how many rocks they have to study, that wheelchair access to moraines is so limited, and at the sheer temerity of geologists calling a rock formation a "dyke".
Today's at Jo Nova's is a speleothem study "showing" that there has been no great industrial signal in temperatures in the Pyrenees.
While it's a bit more plausible than tree ring temperature proxies, I'm also pretty doubtful on using stalagmites as thermometers. The story for ice cores is one thing, but there are a lot more confounding factors when the water has condensed, landed on the ground, filtered through the soil and dripped from the roof of a cave. Does anyone have a calibration study where a thermometer in a cave has been recorded for a couple of hundred years (or even a couple of decades), and compared it with what the stalagmites have recorded?
tomo,
Those were shocking tales from Hawaii. Suspicious that there might be some sensationalism. Be interesting to see if it does go red next year.
As for judges overstepping their authority, let's hope all such get a comeuppance at least as stinging as Judge Vasta's (to clarify on that article, the Judge had to pay the $50,000 in "exemplary damages").
That professor's pretentious title — Professor of Global Public Health — seems to fit well with "sixth-rater" correlation.
It doesn't add up...,
That was an interesting article. I had to look up the "three domains" (economic, environmental, social). Afraid I don't find the division terribly helpful since environmental and social values ultimately have to be weighed by mechanisms of economics.
That's not economics as per your typical "expert" on the news prattling about interest rates or inflation, but economics as the problem of the efficient allocation of limited resources which clearly was what Boiteux was up to.
The article mentions (with not enough disdain):
the old days of the planning illusion now overtaken by the full development of market mechanismsThe reason I'd treat it with more disdain is that the "full development of market mechanisms" we see today is just more of the planning illusion: Oh we're not forcing wind power on people, we just manipulate the price so that people freely choose wind power. IOW I'm not pulling the cat's tail; I'm just holding on, the cat's doing all the pulling.
More on "The Voice", this time a letter to the Australian Catholic Bishops' Conference asking for less sloganeering in their "Yes" position.
Boiteux was indeed a remarkable man. We need his like again to kick start some sense into the nuclear future. I found this appreciation of him which gives an indication.
Do I detect a bit of spasm-ing in one eye / a nervous tic from Devi?
I do hope so...
Telly struck fascistic jockan-ese academic heads for the studio lights and honorariums again New book likely...
I came across this IMHO excellent paper whilst trawling through the GWPF website. It seems to me the content is accessible and should be understood by any reasonably educated person. Pertinent is the fact that although requested to do so it has (so far to the best of my knowledge not been done).
"GWPF invited the Royal Society and the Met Office to review this
paper, and to submit a response to be published as an appendix to it. No reply was received."
By definition, on the basis of the policy decision made this must exclude the political class.
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2022/09/Kininmonth-Greenhouse-Effect.pdf