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Unfortunately I find this article in the Daily Sceptic credible. It seems llike sound research.

https://dailysceptic.org/2023/06/21/how-do-covid-19-mrna-vaccines-harm-the-body-and-whats-the-treatment/

Jun 21, 2023 at 10:26 AM | Unregistered CommenterRoss Lea

Ross Lea,
Geothermal obviously does work in places, but it has a lot of vagaries. Works well in New Zealand, but Australia's serious attempt at it washed up on M Courtney's response "B". Can hope Cornwall has better luck, but the lessons learnt may not apply in other places.

From the article:

... the UK - which has enough underground heat to potentially heat the whole country.
Skipping past the irony of "heating the country" vs. "global warming", so much of the soft soap we get about energy policy rates the domestic market as all that matters. Sure, heating homes, shops, etc., is a chunk of energy, but how does it compare with industrial machinery, smelters, etc.? It's another form of the "enough to power 10,000 homes" (or whatever), as if from birth to death, all we do is sit at home.


M Courtney,
Perhaps a little unkind in your response "C". I didn't see many fracking comments, but what I saw seemed to be complaining about a double standard: IF fracking is a problem, why is this allowed?


tomo,
There probably was *some* antifreeze in that washer fluid, but nothing like enough. Was probably a little above 0F at the tunnel. Decidedly nippy, but well within antifreeze range.

As you say, self-driving cars are going to want their sensors protected like plane sensors are. Different spectrum of threats: splashed with slush from a snow plough, smashed by a stone falling from a truck ahead, obscured by a bug,... lots of fun.


The EconTalk interviewing the watchmaker had a nice Adam Smith quote musing on what motivates the man who buys a really expensive watch, ostensibly because it's so precise, yet he isn't particularly punctual, or all that fussed about others' punctuality.

It's gadget lust, of course. That might also be the answer to my recent question about why autonomous vehicles are being done as extra controls on a free roaming vehicle rather than as extra freedoms on a constrained vehicle. A lift ride isn't very exciting, but there are plenty of YouTubes of Tesla "Autopilot" experiences.

Jun 21, 2023 at 12:43 AM | Unregistered CommenterRobert Swan

no antifreeze in the washer fluid and it just froze on the windscreen. The wipers had spread it, but then wouldn't move it, and I couldn't see much of anything. Was in the tunnel, so not really able to stop. Opted to hog the centreline at about 20mph with hazards on for the whole length of the tunnel. That was a bit on the exciting side

Had very similar experience - now watch for it in serious cold conditions - real PITA if temp is beyond antifreeze range too.

- I can imagine that camera appendages might have to be heated like pitot tubes on aircraft...

Jun 20, 2023 at 4:28 PM | Registered Commentertomo

Yes, the comments on Cornish Geothermal at the Daily Mail are very stupid.

But that's OK. Most people are experts on only a very few things so most comments on a public forum are expected to be wondrous and curious rather than enlightening.

The remarkable thing about those comments though is that they lack humility. None have bothered to consider if they are exposing their own ignorance.

In summary the comments come down to these issues:
A) Iceland has been doing this for years so what’s special. And the replies being that Iceland has different geology (correct). But non-one considers why a different geology means a very different engineering challenge.
B) Cornwall has been researching this for 40 years so what has taken so long? The answer is self-evident. The technology doesn’t work or has been uneconomic with current materials. The actual answer is that the technology doesn’t work because rocks move. It ends up using more energy to keep the pipes open than is being extracted. If the extracted liquid or gas is very energetic (like oil or gas) it can work. Or if the pipes don’t need to be very long as the energy is near the surface – see Iceland again. Strangely, none of the commenters at the DM have asked, why has this not worked before?
C) Will this cause the same problems as fracking? Answer being… what problems? Tremors are normal. The effect of fracking in Cornwall will be less than the waves of a winter storm.

There is an interesting discussion to be had about how this has gotten funded yet again. Comparisons with nuclear fusion spring to mind. But the Daily Mail article is effectively just a PR release.

Jun 20, 2023 at 12:03 PM | Registered CommenterM Courtney

This from the Daily Mail; sloppy journalism but an interesting development; really stupid comments !

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12212597/Deep-geothermal-energy-plant-opens-Eden-Project-Cornwall.html

Jun 20, 2023 at 8:49 AM | Unregistered CommenterRoss Lea

tomo,

I think they'd better wait for super-duper capacitors for that one; either that or restrict themselves to model aeroplanes.

I agree with you about the mysteries of charging/degradation (even if it all comes down to "basic physics"). I've resorted to common sense (or common nonsense) that the higher the charge, the more determined the electrons are going to be to find another way home and, once the escape route has been made, other electrons will take it. So I'm going to see how well they behave in more comfortable accomodation. If you need 12V, rather than 3 cells @ 4V each, go for 4 cells @ 3V each. I have the luxury of not needing the full voltage for very long either, so it's a pretty undemanding application. Much more difficult with phones and BEVs.

FWIW, the TI BQ76925 is doing BMS duty. It can manage up to 6 cells at voltages between about 1.5 and 4.5. Quite a bit of programming required, but it's pretty snazzy all the same.

The great push for EVs, renewables and battery backup is far from the first time governments have followed fire, ready, aim. What is new is that they're doing it in rapid-fire, again and again.


MikeHig,
I did like the idea of the intelligent lifts that were afraid of heights, but Adams's lifts never escaped the building, so it's not really the same idea. I had a link to a 2016 Wired article, but that link is dead today. This is the sort of thing. The magazine article said the London Underground had been talking to the company. Would be nifty to be able to climb into a lift at Covent Garden and emerge from the same capsule at Waterloo (or wherever).

Reading EV forums, it's clear that most users do work in the 20 - 80% capacity range unless they have a long journey coming up.
I've read much the same. That is a trade off between range and battery longevity, so the bone of contention must be my claim that EV drivers "aren't going to be happy about it". I put it to you that they would be happier if they didn't need to do it, but I'll concede that many accept it with equanimity.

I agree that BEVs work nicely for a subset of drivers. I certainly wouldn't want them banned. Unfortunately our governments are trying to impose them on everyone and, at least in Australia, the majority are going to be greatly inconvenienced.


Listened to that AutonoCast podcast again. A few more of Koopman's points:

  There is no evolutionary path from driver aids like automatic braking, lane-keep assist, etc., to full autonomy. The aids assist the driver and don't help if there's no driver to assist.
  You consign your toddler to an otherwise empty vehicle to take her to day-care. Presumably the staff will unbuckle her when she gets there, but who's going to get her out if the vehicle catches fire on the way?
  Who checks the windscreen washer? The vision parts of these vehicles usually look out through the windscreen. If "noise" makes people disappear from view, low washer fluid might be a lethal problem.

On that last one, I once hired a vehicle in winter in Summit County in Colorado to drive down to Denver. The windscreen was a bit muddy as I entered the eastbound Johnson Tunnel so I gave the windscreen washers a squirt. Bad move. There was no antifreeze in the washer fluid and it just froze on the windscreen. The wipers had spread it, but then wouldn't move it, and I couldn't see much of anything. Was in the tunnel, so not really able to stop. Opted to hog the centreline at about 20mph with hazards on for the whole length of the tunnel. That was a bit on the exciting side for me, but I guess an autonomous vehicle wouldn't see a problem.

Jun 20, 2023 at 3:12 AM | Unregistered CommenterRobert Swan

Robert S: a few days ago you wrote:
"We already have autonomous vehicles called lifts (or elevators). How about making them more versatile: building to building, suburb to suburb, and all on their own infrastructure? Still plenty of tricky problems, but far more achievable."
You may recall that Douglas Adams had the same idea. He gave lifts limited prescience so they would anticipate which floor they would be needed. Unfortunately their limited view of the future scared them so they spent their time cowering in basements.

On EV batteries: "That info might be useful to the powerwall user, but the EV owner isn't going to be happy trading off between the already scary battery life and the already heavily limited range."
Reading EV forums, it's clear that most users do work in the 20 - 80% capacity range unless they have a long journey coming up. Apparently it's easy to do because most cars and chargers allow you to schedule charging, in terms of the rate, the charge level and the timing. In addition there are some interactive tariffs which will charge the car at any time when it's cheap.
While battery life was indeed poor on some early machines about 10 years ago, it does not seem to be a problem on more recent cars. They now have very sophisticated battery management systems which basically look after the battery health: cooling; heating; load distribution; etc..
As for range, a different mindset is needed. EV users start each day with a full "tank" (or as full as they have set it to be) and there are not many folks who do regular long journeys. Public charging can be problematic, unless the car is a Tesla with their dedicated charger network. That seems to work brilliantly: you put your destination into the satnav and it works out the best route, where and when to stop and how much charge to take up at each stop. It even pre-conditions the battery ahead of arriving at a charger to improve charging performance.
From what I have read, EVs are not suitable for everyone but they work very well for a lot of people. The economics are a problem unless, like most users, it is a company car which yields massive tax advantages.

tomo: thanks for the heads-up. I am, once again, immersed in his book after looking for a bit of info and just carrying on reading. His exposé of the catastrophic impact of material shortages is fascinating. If the German engineers had enjoyed the same access to nickel, cobalt, et al that our manufacturers enjoyed, the war in the air might have gone very differently. It has set me to wondering whether it was an unrecognised influence on Germany's technical performance across the board.

Jun 19, 2023 at 11:53 PM | Unregistered CommenterMikeHig

Robert

I've seen supercapacitors posited for aircraft to mitigate the takeoff load and buffer power draw from fuel cells...

That said, there is precious little real world data / information on the lithium chemistry wear mechanisms. I have replaced several phone batteries over the years and noticed that Samsung in particular have been specifying their pouch cells to have slightly higher final cell volts on "full" (4.3 or 4.4 volts an one case) - which seems to degrade replacement batteries pronto... There is devil in the detail of the chemistry which in many cases is simply not exposed. iirc some Nissan Leaf cells ran afoul of chemistry with aiui a slow crystallisation thing happening to the electrolyte which totalled the cells - I get the impression that a PR company made $$$ in "disaster management" fees.

iirc there's at least a couple of BMS chips that are "multichemistry" - but then again they target specific (high volume) usage cases and there's some programming to do to tweak them in.

There is no end though to quite mad claims of magic batteries from the circus of renewables fanbois (and grifting academics). Cul de sac chemistries like sodium "Zebra" and variations on Lithium chemisrty are out there. I was offered an AutoLib noddy wagon some years ago but on exploring the replacement cell situation I passed on the opportunity. My experience of trying to obtain the replacement battery was totally at odds with the claims of MSM "fact checkers" There's a reason those Autolib EVs are moldering away in farmer's fields in France.

Jun 19, 2023 at 11:13 AM | Registered Commentertomo

Phil Clarke,
It's quiet here, gently-paced and reflective. That appeals to me far more than the squabbling forums. Perhaps it's a contrast between the outlook of a swan and that of a goose.

All forums are a bit like a gathering of Quakers in a darkroom. Those that are moved to speak, are heard, but who knows how many are in the room, but silent? You now know that BH is still more than just tomo and me.


Ross Lea,
I like that line of argument — to exonerate CO2 — but it's beyond my knowledge. The only arguments I feel qualified to make are along the lines of Judith Curry's complexity monster: that there are any number of problems which have been ignored / arm-waved away.

Mind you, the rational side has never lacked for arguments, it's just that they don't get widely aired. Maybe we need to simplify the message.


tomo,
It's not just electric planes and other EVs. Given how many of the pie-in-the-sky promises hinge on batteries, you might hope they'd considered battery degradation.

I've recently been working on a LiFePO4 battery pack. I found this article interesting, particularly how much the battery's life is extended by not fully charging it. I'm planning on only charging to 3.0-3.2V (i.e. as little as 10% of total capacity, but very long life). Looking for suitable chips, there was nothing off the shelf that would charge anything like that low, so I've had to go with a more complicated setup where the charging and balancing is controlled by software. It's interesting that nobody's packaging a solution that makes it easy to maximise battery life.

Slightly Less geeky: every laptop I've had has started off able to run something like 6 hours on batteries, but has dropped by about half each year. If it only ever charged to 50% capacity, you'd only start with 3 hours run-time, but you'd still have most of that after three years. (I believe some modern laptops have an option to set charge limit in their bios, but it's been a while since I bought my last).

That info might be useful to the powerwall user, but the EV owner isn't going to be happy trading off between the already scary battery life and the already heavily limited range.


Latest EconTalk was off the beaten path: an interview with a watchmaker / repairer, her speciality being 18C watches. She has a PhD, but certainly didn't take a conventional path getting it. Always find the interviews with business owners more interesting than interviews with economists.

Jun 19, 2023 at 1:32 AM | Unregistered CommenterRobert Swan

If MikeHig is about - see lecture by Calum Douglas delivers this year’s IMechE Annual Lecture on behalf of the Institution’s Powertrain Systems and Fuels Group.

https://events.imeche.org/ViewEvent?e=7586

Tomorrow (20th June) evening 18:30

The Secret Horsepower Race

Jun 19, 2023 at 12:57 AM | Registered Commentertomo

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