Discussion > EU must be joking
Robert Christopher
Just to say thank you for triggering the discussion on the potential breakup of the EU post Brexit, whatever the result, as it seems to me to be one of the unspoken problems facing both camps. It hasn't really changed my position that the EU is a good scapegoat for issues and red tape, and that of the balance of arguments, for me in my current situation staying in is
SandyS
Steve Richards
With regard to the NHS, it's an interesting topic for discussion. The problem is not simple.
With regard to immigrant staff, we're talking EU citizens returning to the EU as the situation won't change for non-EU citizens. If the vote is to leave then nothing will change instantly. But there are several things to consider here. Many of the these workers are young and single, in the fullness of time they will start families and take maternity/paternity leave. Of these a number will take that leave in their home country to be with their family. Equally many have parents and grandparents in their countries and may have to return due to family crisis. Other than injuring themselves I don't think ill health will be a problem for these workers. Their fear would be once they leave the UK for an extended period and 3 months seems a crucial period they won't be allowed to return to work. Once this starts happening then the uncertainty becomes a fear. In my experience the hardest move away from family and your home area is the first, after making a living in an alien environment moving to another isn't a problem. So medium to long term the NHS will have a problem with replacing EU workers with homegrown onces and will be competing with all the other industries whose EU workers have drifted back to the EU (or whatever remains of the EU or their country of origin).
As the NHS is the largest employer in the UK and run by the government then pay and conditions should be the legal minimum or better. The fact that it can't find enough employees from British citizens is not the fault of the EU. It's up to the electorate of the UK to vote for a political party offering higher taxes to pay better wages to attract local people for local NHS jobs. The fact that places at medical colleges are taken by foreign students or are too expensive or too few is not the fault of the EU, It's up to the electorate of the UK to vote for a political party offering higher taxes to pay for more places for local people at local colleges.
I want people who went to school hereIncluding children of immigrants who are bi-lingual?
Then there's the problem of returning expats, EU citizens get the same health care as the citizens of their country of residence. In Spain, where most British citizens reside, this is free. Most British expats are retirees. People of retirement age are most likely to suffer from long and expensive illness. If forced to pay for healthcare by the government of their country of residence then most will return to the UK for free NHS care. Why not, they probably spent 50 years paying NI and taxes. You might say no EU government would change the rules for British citizens post Brexit - Aye that'll be right. You might say that having decided to live abroad then that's an expats problem, but it's the UK government which changed the rules so they are responsible for the consequences. Expats would return to the UK and the numbers replacing them from the UK would fall dramatically so the effect on the NHS would be to increase the problems rather than decrease them. I believe the UK government picks up the healthcare costs for retirees via the S1 system, so the strain is purely in numbers, in theory anyway.
Finally there is no job which cannot be sent offshore except for car repair and house building and maintenance.
SandyS
SandyS on May 26, 2016 at 7:16 AM
"... the EU is a good scapegoat for issues and red tape ..."
It is! It is a VERY effective scapegoat, and it will continue to be for as long as we remain in the unreformed EU.
Are you happy with this status quo?
If not, what should happen to correct it?
Do you think the EU can be reformed? (What has stopped it reforming, especially after Cameron's efforts.)
If not, do you think we could reform all our QUANGOS, politicians and media commentators? (ditto)
If not, why hasn't it been done already?
Do you think the status quo is an option?
'Ever Closer Union' doesn't sound like it to me.
The EU is now meddling with the time allowed for advert breaks on commercial TV and, while it is not the most important sovereignty issue around, if they think this is a job for the Brussels Bureaucrats, will there be anything that is off limits to them and out of reach for us, or our elected politicians, to change?
For anyone living outside Britain, I can understand the situation appears differently but if people from the US, Canada, Brazil, Japan and most other countries outside the EU are NOW living in the EU without any trouble, there should be no trouble for Britons living in the rEU after Brexit.
Robert Christopher
I am not sure about this, posted by Pierre Gosselin at NoTricksZone. The worry being translation can easily mangle context. I have no reason to doubt his translation, just going to take time out and watch for developments. If there is anything of substance behind the DWN article I have ho doubt we will hear about it in the UK!
EU Reveals Its Inner Arrogance …Floats Plan To “Punish Parties That Don’t Represent EU Norms”
Green Sand
Interesting that today one of Cameron's sock puppets said he thought Cameron was a closet Brexiteer Bwahahaha!
Dung
Spain's Banco unPopular?
Daily Express:
Eurozone RUPTURE: Now SPAIN threatens to tear EU apart as banks LOSE €1.4BILLION in a day
Good job we are not yet in the Euro!
Robert Christopher
Robert Christopher
Is anyone happy with the status quo?
Change who knows, but is that restricted to the EU? I can think of lots of things I'd like the UK parliament to change.
Are any UK Quangos created by the EU or by the UK government?
Anything can be reformed, whether the reforming is beneficial in a person's lifetime is a moot question.
Is ever greater devolution a good thing?
After Brexit the problem for Britons currently in the EU is that the goalposts have been moved and there's no certainty where to, you certainly cannot say with any certainty for any EU country what the situation the situation will be. The non-EU nationals made the decision to move to the EU in the knowledge that the were an alien (for want of a better word) and unlikely ever to receive benefits as an EU citizen.
Are you sure it's the EU meddling or TV companies lobbying for a change to increase income so they can compete with web based and state funded competitors?
Non-EU citizens in the UK (based on 2012 ONS survey data so obviously lower than now judging by today's data)
Americans in the UK 158,000
Brazilians in the UK 50,570
Japanese in the UK 35,043
Canadians in the UK 72,518
Australians in the UK 120,000
Philippine nationals in the UK 200,000
Mexicans in the UK 6,000
Turkish nationals in UK 40,000
Iraqi nationals in UK 33,000
Iranian nationals 35,000
Sri Lankan nationals in the UK 35,000
Chinese nationals in the UK 110,00
Indian nationals in the UK 730,000
Pakistani nationals in the UK 465,000
Bangladeshi nationals in the UK 234,000
Jamaican nationals in the UK 145,000
EU citizens in the UK
Irish Republic 400,000
Germany 304,000
France 136,000
Poland 646,000
Spain 83,000
Italy 135,000
Lithuanians 130,000
Latvia 70,000
Estonia 30,000
Plus all the
So I have a question for you after Brexit what do you want to do about these migrants (In 2011, there were 7.5 million foreign-born residents in the UK)?
SandyS
SandyS on May 26, 2016 at 6:35 PM
"Is anyone happy with the status quo?"
We are not being offered the status quo! It will be 'Ever Closer Union', until the pips squeak! Green Sand's post on May 26, 2016 at 2:17 PM looks very 'authoritarian', especially when it originates from Germany :) and see my next post.
"Change who knows, but is that restricted to the EU? I can think of lots of things I'd like the UK parliament to change."
Remaining in, the UK Parliament will have less and less power to do anything, until it disappears! Why have Westminster when we can have Brussels?
"Are any UK Quangos created by the EU or by the UK government?"
It doesn't matter. It is said (by Remainers) that the EU is OK, it is the British QUANGOS that implement the directives poorly. But we don't appear to be able to correct their faults as big problems have been occurring, and it is blamed on the EU.
"Are you sure it's the EU meddling or TV companies lobbying for a change to increase income so they can compete with web based and state funded competitors?"
Why can't the TV companies lobby Westminster, then we can hold our MPs to account? We can't hold EU bureaucrats to account at all! We, in Britain, will have lost our ability to hold our politicians to account.
"So I have a question for you after Brexit what do you want to do about these migrants"
It will up to the British Government, so I would expect most would continue as they are, but the foreign murderers and rapists would be returned to their own country. I don't think a speeding fine would generate deportation. Do you find that objectionable?
Robert Christopher
Here is discussion with Bernard Connolly, the British economist who worked with the European Commission in Brussels, where he was head of the unit responsible for the European Monetary System and monetary policies. He was dismissed after writing the book that criticised the EU's policies, The Rotten Heart of Europe: The Dirty War for Europe's Money.
The first clip is about the EU for fifteen minutes, then he digresses, but talks generally about the world problems (which is good!):
Bernard Connolly: the EU is an “explicitly anti-democratic”, crony capitalist state
This second part returns to discussing the EU, none of it helps the Remain case:
Bernard Connolly: why Brexit is good for small companies
He points out that what we hold dear, like 'law and order', is overruled by 'Ever Closer Union' and that the EU will be a very different world in which to live.
Robert Christopher
We can laugh at it now, but if we Remain, we will remember what we have thrown away:
Daily Express:
EU meddling AGAIN: Juncker aide orders Britons NOT to vote for Boris Johnson in election
Robert Christopher
SandyS:
You seem to think that after Brexit that the UK will just shut its borders and employers such as the NHS will just hemorrhage staff without replacements.
Have you not heard the news? Every commentator on the leave side has been saying for months, UKIP has been saying it for years.
A points based entry system.
Any non UK passport holder could apply and if we needed the skills in they come.
Just like other modern societies.
If you needed technical details of a practical system: all vacancies to be additionally notified to government job centres (so now we know skill shortages by skill and area).
If you have the skills to fill a shortage job in you come - sorted.
Why would you even dream up ideas of people drifting away from the NHS and being unable to get back?
Steve Richards
UK unemployment, officially approx 5%?
Population 65m, so 3m looking for work?
So are the annual incoming 300k keeping the indigenous 3m on their toes or simply ensuring the standard of living they have become accustomed to?
Green Sand
Robert Christopher
You obviously feel the same way about the EU as a Rangers supporter feels about Celtic and its supporters. As I said 15 or so pages ago I don't feel that strongly about it but I'm interested in knowing how you think things will pan out. Nothing you've said changes my opinion that in or out not a lot will be different, if the Euro and EU ultimately fail then the result for the UK will be very similar in or out.
SandyS
Steve Richards
I've been listening, I want to know what a Brexit UK will do in a worst case scenario not the rosy picture paint by Nigel, Boris and Robert. The accepted target for immigration seems to be "tens of thousands" say 50 thousand. A small bleed of the 8 million currently in the UK will cover that.
Are fruit and vegetable picker, hospital porter and burger flipper jobs suitable for migrants or they restricted to UK unemployed, who've no intention to work in those occupations? Do they get more points than a human rights lawyer who'll be unemployable after the Human Rights Act is repealed?
I've always regarded Hope for the best plan for the worst, and have a cup of tea to mull over the worst outcome as a good way to plan for irreversible decisions.
SandyS
Green Sand
Official UK 31.58 million people in work, 23.12 million people working full-time, 1.69 million unemployed people. 8.90 million people aged from 16 to 64 who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking or available to work). Assuming that the EU migrants are mainly of working age and came to work then the official statement The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 74.2% applies too. So there are probably around 2 million EU citizens working in the UK. Which suggests that the migrant workers are supporting UK citizens who can't or won't work.
The average annual turnover in staff in the UK is 15%, so of our 2 million 300,000 will change employment if 15% of those decided to return to the EU then around 40,000 workers will emigrate. Possibly leading to net emigration of people of working age from the UK. I can't see the "Outers"* being happy if more than 50,000 people enter the UK annually to work. None of this paragraph includes non-EU citizens resident in the UK who may decide that living somewhere else is preferable.
*Big-enders and Little-enders?
SandyS
SandyS on May 27, 2016 at 1:15 PM
""You obviously feel the same way about the EU as a Rangers supporter feels about Celtic and its supporters"
Obvious to you, maybe, but I cannot see the connection, or relevance. At least the teams would be playing on a level playing field, and the rules wouldn't be continually changing.
"... if the Euro and EU ultimately fail then the result for the UK will be very similar in or out"
If we Remain, we will be expected to bail out any 'wealth deficient Euro-zone country' to the detriment of our own economy, so more library closures, and much else.
If we Leave, that would not be the case, and we would be free from Brussels interference in our internal processes.
If you are looking for a choice of two certain scenarios, then you will be disappointed. It isn't feasible; they cannot be supplied, especially as the Government has not used its immense resources to provide a full and fair picture of what is likely to be available.
Although we do not know for certain what the future holds, we do know that being able to react with our own interests in mind, when the need arises, is better than waiting for unelected, far away, unaccountable bureaucrats to solve our problems. Colonial rule has rarely satisfied a nation, while most sizeable countries yearn for sovereignty. It is what we have aspired to, it is how it used to be and, for over 150 countries, how it still is. It is why electing a parliament is so powerful: we can hold them responsible for their actions and throw them out if we don't like what they have done. Five years may be a long time before the MPs get the feed back but it is much shorter than the eternity for the EU Elite.
All the objections that you raise can be dealt with by our empowered government. Changes will not happen overnight, so adjustments will be manageable.
Robert Christopher
SandyS:
"Are fruit and vegetable picker, hospital porter and burger flipper jobs suitable for migrants or they restricted to UK unemployed, who've no intention to work in those occupations?"
Does it appear that some Brits are not taking low paid jobs? Yes, anecdotal evidence says yes.
Why and how could we 'encourage' these people back to work?
If you are on a range of out of work benefits and get a job, those benefits either stop or are reduced depending upon your new income. No problem so far. Your turnip picking contract comes to an end, you have a wodge of pounds in your pocket and you pop into the job centre to a) sign on, b) look for another job.
Problem, you now have to start your benefits application from the beginning, with delays before you get your money.
Yes, the amount is backdated to the day you applied, but that does not put food on the table while you wait for your claim to be processed.
You would only do this once, and take the 'softer' option of living on benefits permanently.
How to fix this?
Give everyone 18 and over a basic income without question, paid for by and increase in paye tax thresholds so it is revenue neutral.
Now, the Turnip picker, currently on a basic income plus some family credit etc etc, gets fed up, gets a picking job for a few weeks, likes the money, stops at the end of the contract, wants more money, he seeks and gets another contract.
Suddenly the lower paid can be incentified to work more just like higher paid people.
By a suitable setting of the basic income, tax threshold and making it revenue neutral, I do not currently see a problem with this.
The net result is we would 'need' less east EU peoples to pick our turnips.
Steve Richards
For immigration (any kind) - how many is too many? We know from China and India that a lot of people can be squeezed into a very small area but are we happy that such a situation might evolve, either for those outside the crush or inside? If you can't say 'slow down', would you ever say 'stop' and even if you did, is there a point where what you say doesn't matter? The Remain have said they can't stop anyone coming in. We are told that people are needed to look after the elderly, the sick and pay taxes. But what about when they're elderly and entitled to a pension? Do we add more people? Isn't that classic pyramid selling? Surely there has to be a limit? What might you have to do then to get people to believe that you really do intend to stop? The longer you leave it, the more draconian the measures would have to be.
For 'ever closer union', same question - how much union is too much? EU rules and encroachements are made a bit at a time. To date, we've hardly ever said no and often eagerly embrace the changes. Year on year our government has less to do and occupies its time on pet projects like climate or aid. At what point would we decide that our politicians are redundant? And at that point, wouldn't we be a mere step away from total union? We supposedly have a veto but what would it protect us from in practice? Especially if we got another leader like Blair. What if we get a whole Europhile government that decides to overide the nation's wishes and just take us into the Euro? What could we or the other politicians do?
Voting to stay in the EU isn't a vote for status quo.
TinyCO2
SandyS, many thanks for the numbers. Makes more sense than my fag packet ones, (I didn't bother researching) . The point was about the wealth generated by those willing to work being used as you said "suggests that the migrant workers are supporting UK citizens who can't or won't work."
Your 2m non-UK nationals from the EU is very close, official numbers have it at 2.15m an increase of 224k in the last year. Whereas non-UK nationals from outside the EU was unchanged at 1.19m over the last 12mths.
The official note attached to the above numbers:-
"....this increase in non-UK nationals working in the UK reflects the admission of several new member states to the European Union (EU)"
Are the increased numbers a true benefit or are they a means to support UK citizens who can't or won't work? If the later then the ability to respond must lie with the UK's politicos and officers.
Green Sand
Steve Richards
The only way the hard core non-working registered unemployed UK nationals will go out and work is for £50K in a 10:00 to 15:00 job in the entertainment industry which they see as their birth right. Your plan is doomed to fail, this is the hard core of a generation which has had things handed to them on a plate.
Would you be prepared to pay extra for the fruit and vegetables picked by the incentivised UK nationals who'd rather be earning £300K in the entertainment industry? The Living Wage is actual proof that 97% of the UK population is not prepared to pay extra to support the low paid, as employers are doing everything they can not to pass on the additional costs by reducing benefits in kind, even The John Lewis Partnership
SandyS
Robert Christopher
The point is that for a Rangers supporter Celtic and their supporters are the forces of evil and must be resisted at all costs everyday and all day. For them anyone who says anything positive about them is obviously beyond help. Playing fields level or otherwise don't come into it, it is a deeply held belief for which there not an inch to be given away. Anything negative is jumped on with glee and much celebration and never questioned. In much the same way as Warmists celebrate every study and report showing man is creating ever greater global warming/climate change.
There are many Brexiteers who fall into this mindset, those who want to remain don't see to have the same unquestioning love of the EU.
SandyS
SandyS on May 27, 2016 at 10:08 PM
Many Remainers do love the EU, (Nick Clegg?), or they don't realise that the status quo is not on offer. Many cannot believe that sovereign nations are capable of cooperating together and, instead, require the EU to enforce agreements, handed down from the Elite. They believe this, even though they know that there are over 150 sovereign countries that manage to cooperate and be accountable to their voters, even when a Leaver (Dan Hannan) offers alternatives:
The Times debate on the EU: In or Out?
They also forget that many agreements are made with countries outside the EU, so there is no reason to think that Britain cannot be one of those countries.
I see that the 'Ever Closer Union Club' has failed in each of their 'Ever Closer Union Projects' and we are locked in, unable to do anything to alleviate our situation without leaving and there is little to think that the situation will improve:
Euro-zone - Greece, youth unemployment, Italy, Germany funding the rest of the Euro-zone, Euro-debt is unassigned.
Schengen - an economic migrant's and terrorists' paradise
CAP - We still haven't yet had the reform 'negotiated' by Blair and paid for by our reduced rebate
CFP - Loss of British catch, destruction of fish stocks, unnecessary destruction of caught fish
Security - the draconian EAW, terrorism is rife, immigration is destroying the peace
Trade - lowering % of world trade
If the Continent wants Ever Closer Union, they can have it. It doesn't seem to suit the British, and those productive people who have moved to Britain. It has taken over forty years to reach our current position, and it is only the rise of UKIP that has forced discussion in the media, so when Euro-problems are acknowledged and hit the headlines, no wonder there is a cheer! If you don't live in the UK, the problem might not be so obvious, but even the Prime Minister has acknowledged the problem:
"Prime Minister David Cameron pledged Friday to fight hard in 2016 to resolve "annoying" features of Britain's relationship with the EU ahead of a planned referendum that could come this year.
Cameron said aspects of being in the European Union were the cause of "so much frustration" in Britain -- but ultimately voters would decide whether the country remains in the bloc."
British PM fighting to fix EU frustration in 2016
There is common agreement is that he did not succeed, so I do not understand why he wants to Remain.
On hearing David Owen in the video I now realise that leaving the EU is possible, as David Cameron would not have offered us the choice in this imminent referendum if it was not.
Robert Christopher
"those who want to remain don't see to have the same unquestioning love of the EU."
Love no, desire to win, yes. eg using £9 million of public money to issue a propaganda leaflet.
TinyCO2
I think this discussion, from the BBC :) adds a new angle. It shows why many are so frustrated with the European Union and why it is doomed:
Week in Westminster (R4, May 28th, 11am @ 8m 25s)
Gisela Stuart MP (Lab):
There comes a point when you realise that you are inside an institution that, not only is utterly unwilling to change, it also seems to be institutionally incapable of moving away from its deep integration wish to create a United States of Europe.So, as a result of that, it set up imperfect institutions and the most imperfect of those at the moment is the single currency, the Euro.
And I find it stunning, absolutely stunning, that the Left can watch 52% youth unemployment in Greece, 47[%] in Spain, 37[%], I think, in Italy, have a generation of young people thrown on the heap of unemployment for the rescue of an institution, which the Elites knew when they set up would not be working.
...
It [the EU] needs to change. There is a core of France, Germany and some peripheral countries who have a single currency, and in order to make it work, they have to deeply politically integrate. They will have to create democratically accountable institutions, a finance ministry, all the kind of things which the countries outside, including the United Kingdom, have never accepted.Now, we either can have a managed process of that reconfiguration which allows the Euro countries to do that integration with democratic accountability and it allows those outside to manage the withdrawal and say we will move back to a trading relationship.
Or we keep sticking together. This economy isn't working. It will be damaged and then we are going to have to restructure under the conditions of some catastrophic event.
I would rather have it managed.
...
Anthony Barnett (Founder of openDemocracy):
I am speaking as a European. As a European, I think that the Euro is actually destroying Europe.
...
Underneath sort of Monnet's rather amazing and wonderful sort of method of gradual change, there was a rather crude, Marxist sense, that if you get the economy right, the politics will follow, and that, that hasn't worked.
It does show that Monet is still steering the sinking ship:
Jean Monnet:
Europe’s nations should be guided towards the superstate without their people understanding what is happening. This can be accomplished by successive steps, each disguised as having an economic purpose but which will irreversibly lead to federation.”
Robert Christopher
We could do with less Altruism and more Benevolence?