Discussion > EU must be joking
Dung
I ask Robert Christopher because he started this thread and posts many links and comments including the one about countries becoming independent from European empires, which was the one that triggered my still unanswered question, which is really quite simple. See my follow up to Robert's latest answer, which doesn't clarify anything as far as I'm concerned.
For me, the logical next step from Brexit is for a number of smaller states to breakaway from larger EU members. Prime candidates would be Scotland, Wales and Ulster from the UK, Catalonia from Spain, Basque Country from Spain and France, Brittany from France, Corsica from France, Sardinia from Italy, Faroes from Denmark further breakup of former Iron Curtain countries. This will then trigger another round of breakaways, for example Shetland and Orkney from Scotland.
The end result of this will be, in my opinion at least, friction between all these new states leading to all of Europe being vulnerable to three things. Russian annexation of various bits of their former empire in the way they've done to Georgia and Ukraine. Chinese financial domination of various countries when the run into financial problems in the way Greece has. Finally an Islamic invasion from Turkey which may finally capture Vienna, another from Morocco into Spain (or its constituent parts),, Portugal and France, winning a second Battle of Tours as there's no Charles Martel now.
SandyS
Robert Christopher
OK I'll rephrase the question.
Do you think that it will be a good thing for Europe when, after Brexit, the UK and other states breakup into smaller self governing entities using the arguments put forward by the UK Leave campaign as justification?
SandyS
SandyS
It sounds like you would actually argue against Brexit because of the possibilities that you have highlited and that is the sickest argument I have heard so far.
Dung
SandyS: that is one objective of the EU – to fragment each of its constituent nations, so reducing any potential bloc developing that could challenge the authority of the EU, hence the various regional assemblies that have already been established, not only in this country, but around Europe. There are many Scots who truly believe that, should they ever loose themselves from the shackles of Westminster, they would then be able to talk freely with Brussels; somehow, they think that they will be treated with more respect than the whole of the UK did, as one nation. Odd, that.
Anyhoo... there will always be bickering within any nation; however, it is like a family, while there may be arguments, even heated ones, there is still a certain unity. The EU, though, is a street gang; membership might seem cool, and give a certain kudos, but you may be causing grief in your family, and you really dare not argue with the leaders, and there is no real unity.
Radical Rodent
SandyS on May 24, 2016 at 5:34 PM
You don't say what the UK Leave campaign arguments are, but I will list a few that I think are important. Currently, with the EU:
1) There is no demos at all within the EU: in the Eighties, we responded to the breakdown of law in Liverpool, but now in Greece, that lawless country is forgotten, and Paris(twice), Brussels, Cologne railway station are ignored, though reactive responses keep the masses satisfied that 'something is being done'. Hash-tags won't fix the problem!
2) We cannot throw out the politicians who makes our laws. In fact they are mostly recycled, failed politicians!
3) Because of the political structures, there is little likelihood that any EU directive or regulation will be retracted: it is the ratchet effect!
4) Those creating law have no nationality, they have renounced it, so they are foreigners imposing on colonial areas
5) Those creating law have no responsibility towards implementing it, so what do they care about its quality or whether it is only sensible for particular areas, climates or situations?
6) Hannan says the worst aspect of the EU is that they keep changing the rules and ignoring their own laws. It is true.
7) Merkel invites over 1,000,000 economic, and mostly illiterate, migrants into her country and then orders, with large fines for those who disobey her, countries to 'take their share'. Where is the supremacy of Law over individuals and Government?
8) We have a different view to the Law than do those conquered by Napoleon, which are the majority in the EU, so we will ALWAYS be outvoted.
9) Britain knew about the V.W. emissions scam, but were ignored by the politicians, because in the EU, politics is more important than truth.
10) In the video, Brexit the Movie, it highlights the thinking behind the Brussels Eurocrats: legislate if it moves, or even if it doesn't, like towels! Britain became a great power by not having this bureaucratic disease.
These are just off the top of my head. You can use these points to see how Britain's home countries fare. They have different languages, cultures, histories, geographies, even climate, but we have now had several hundred years of being together and allowances have been made. I think more could be done, especially after Blair's catastrophic attempts to use our constitution to serve his party's purposes, but we need to be able to focus on the problems and not have Brussels meddling in our affairs.
Britain already has the infrastructure needed to be a country: it hasn't yet been dismantled! We have our historical ties, politically, financially and culturally, across the world, and they are prospering, while the rest of the EU is not.
Just think of the mess we will be weighed down by if we Remain. It won't be the Status Quo, it will be 'Ever Closer Union', bailing out the basket cases as we are 'so prosperous', and all the while being impeded by the Franco-German Alliance.
It has been suggested that if we left, Gibraltar would be at the mercy of Spain. It might be, but at least we would be free to defend it. If we Remain, I expect Gibraltar to soon be absorbed by an enlarged Andalusia. It makes everything so much tidier, you see! :)
It is quite likely that the EU will disintegrate after Britain leaves, especially if they carry on as they have! Whether the 'Remaining' countries will fracture will depend on what those involved want and how much power they can wield, and how much influence is inflicted from outside.
It was ever thus. But outside this Euro-dysfuntionality, Britain will still be able to prosper, to trade, to show how it can be done!
Robert Christopher
Robert Christopher
It is a simple decision, alliances always come with a cost, a compromise, cost v present day gain. But few, very few, look to the long term responsibilities that can be inherent in such alliances.
I find the present day gain, hols will not increase, house prices will not fall, income will not fall, etc makes it an absolute no-brainier to get the hell out.
h/t George the Boy. Or was it Boy George? Dave the Rave? No getting ahead of myself.....
Green Sand
Dung
All I'm saying is that is one logical outcome from many regions gaining independence using the same arguments as those used in Brexit Out campaign. History of the 20th century suggests an era of instability would follow that.
I say again I didn't raise the breakup of European empires on this topic I'm merely giving a scenario and asking the author of the comment what his view of the outcome for Europe would be. You asked why I wanted to know and why I asked for a line in the sand; I gave a reason. Calling me sick is a bit rich I feel
SandyS
Robert Christopher
I didn't ask for a list of reasons to leave the EU, you've put them forward here several times.
What I asked, now for the third time, is if you think that a breakup of the member states of the EU into smaller entities by using similar arguments to those of the Out campaign in Brexit is a good thing with positive consequences?
As you've failed to address a perfectly legitimate question for reasons I've already given I take it that:
1. You think national breakups may well happen following Brexit, including the UK
2 It won't be a good thing
3 You don't want to say because you think my suggestion is possible if unlikely in the short term.
SandyS
Radical Rodent
I'm not sure that the actions of independence groups in The Basque Country, Corsica and various parts of the Former Iron Curtain countries can be considered bickering. Closer to home the Sons of Glendower and Settler Watch should be a warning. Don't forget the reason why Post Boxes in Scotland have the cipher ER and not EIIR as in the rest of the UK. Also Russia is aggressively trying reclaim parts of its former empire, a bit more than squabbling amongst neighbours.
Anyways I find it equally odd that people arguing vociferously for the UK to leave the EU cannot see that the same arguments being used successfully by independence movements across Europe, and globally for that matter. Once the nation states of Europe have broken up Scotland could become a major player in the Celtic League, which could be expanded to include newly independent Galicia, northern Portugal and Asturias which claim Celtic heritage. Then if the breakup continues globally, why not? Cape Breton Island and a breakway part of Nova Scotia.
SandyS
SandyS:
'for example Shetland and Orkney from Scotland'
I am all for 'taking an argument it its extremes' to illustrate a point, but really!
Do you really believe that the Orkney's etc have sufficient infrastructure/trade/support systems/income etc etc to be a fully independent nation?
I think not.
The 20,000 population of the Orkney's, in my view, probably too low - to start an independent country.
The 2.4 million Basque people probably do have sufficient numbers, skills and the desire to be self governing.
Not comparing like with like really.....
Steve Richards
I am all for taking ideas to extremes, but I am not sure the Shetlands are large enough to cope with the repatriation of all of their ponies.
golf charlie
Steve Richards
You realise that Shetland's capital Lerwick is closer to Oslo than London*? You realise that Shetland became part of Scotland in lieu of a dowry in 1468, at that time Norway was in dire financial straights. Shetland's indigenous population is mainly of Norse descent. Shetland is quite rich in terms of income currently, North Sea Oil and Gas, Atlantic Gas and Oil, Fishing, and Tourism, Shetland is probably the most reliable source of wind generated electricity. Tourism via cruises is part of a growing economy. So not totally reliant on the North Sea.
Orkney became part of Scotland unofficially in 1379 when the Scottish earl Henry Sinclair took control of Orkney on behalf of the Norwegian king. Subsequently it was part of the same dowry as Shetland. Orkney too is quite well for resources. I can recommend visiting Orkney if you are at interested in history. Orkney has things of interest from earliest post glacial to 21st century.
As it happens The Isle of Man and the Hebrides were ceded to Scotland by Norway in 1266, after the Battle of Largs.
*Distances from Lerwick
Lerwick - Oslo ~ 380 miles
Lerwick - Edinburgh ~ 310 miles
Lerwick - London ~ 600 miles
Populations
Monaco 37,800
Andorra 80,000
Liechtenstein 37,000
San Marino 33,400
Orkney & Shetland 42,000
So not without precedent in Europe as an independent state/autonomous region.
None of which answers the question triggered by Robert Christopher's posting on the break-up of Europe Nation's empires, and a Brexit triggered break-up of European nations including the UK and then the Nations of the UK.
SandyS
SandyS,
I'll answer your question. If enough citizens and inhabitants of any place, whatever it's size of population or geographical area, choose to vote for the independence of that place through a fair and properly held election or referendum, then they should be able to do so. Even if it leads to the reduction of countries such as the UK and Germany to it's component states or shires. It's called democracy.
Let me revert the question to you. Following your argument, should we have acted to prevent the break-up of states such as Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia and the USSR into their smaller component parts?
Laurie Childs
Golf Charlie
Think of the chaos if the Shetland Collies and Shetland Sheep were repatriated at the same time as the Ponies.
SandyS
SandyS on May 25, 2016 at 7:34 AM
"1. You think national breakups may well happen following Brexit, including the UK"
There are twenty eight desperate countries who were promised prosperity by their Europhile politicians, in addition to their own national contribution, and have been delivered naught! Even Germany has problems, with its energy, immigration and financial policies that have been complicated by EU politics. Currently, some countries have already become dysfunctional, with their senior politicians replaced by Brussels, nearly half their youth not in employment, training or studying, with many emigrating in the hope of a better future, their national borders completely shot, not knowing who is roaming their streets, their Elite being insulated from any inconvenience, their schools, health services and law courts overloaded, and an ever rising national debt that will never be paid off because of the restrictive financial controls put in place by Brussels! Not what we were promised.
Yes, when the EU breaks up, it will get worse. The longer the wait for the breakup, the worse the initial position will be. It will require statesmanship to steer towards a better future, but will there be any statesmen (or stateswomen) left?
"2 It won't be a good thing"
It hasn't been a 'good thing'. It still isn't and it won't be. 'Ever Closer Union' will only make things worse as the goal is to destroy any evidence of Europe's historic countries. On the wall, in the EU Parliament Visitor Centre, it says:
National sovereignty is the root cause of the most crying evils of our times …
The only final remedy for this supreme and catastrophic evil of our time is a federal union of the peoples …
It doesn't matter whether the countries breakup while in the EU, or after the EU itself has collapsed, their goal will have been achieved.
"3 You don't want to say because you think my suggestion is possible if unlikely in the short term."
As you can see, I think the break up has already started, and your question assumes that it hasn't. I remember, for years, discussions on what was going to happen with Yugoslavia's break up. When it occurred, it was bad because the problems had been contained within its borders but at the expense of ever greater dissatisfaction that was not allowed to be voiced.
That sounds familiar.
Robert Christopher
Laurie Childs
Thank you for that answer, in fact I agree with you that if you think self determination and independence is a good thing then it should available to all. Whether this is a good thing long term is debatable. It may just be one step backwards to a re-organisation of Europe into a series of new major nations and confederations based on language and other factors, or it could end up as I suggested earlier. The Sir Patrick Moore position holds true on that.
I think that basically that answers your question. Although a better job could have been done in handling the break-up, as yet unfinished, of the former Soviet Bloc.
I still would like to know what the out campaigners think, I have a sneaky feeling that the break-up of the UK is not something they relish.
SandyS
Robert Christopher
Thank you for answering the question.
For clarification.
You think that a breakup of the EU is inevitable, the longer it is delayed the worse it will be. Then the subsequent breakup of Europe's nation states is also inevitable. Neither is anything to do with Brexit and England (not necessarily the UK) will be able to sit on the sidelines remaining independent and wealthy with no immigrant or refugee problems.
SandyS
I think Laurie Childs said it all as far as I am concerned and I agree totally with what he said.
SandyS
Of course I worry about the break up of the UK but at the same time I would not wish to keep people in a union which they despised.
As far as I can see (and of course everything changes over time) the only people in Scotland pushing for independence are the Scots Nats and they failed in their attempts to persuade Scotland to vote for independence.
Wales has shown no signs of wanting to break away and neither has Northern Ireland. However I would never vote to force them to stay.
The British nations have fought and died alongside each other for hundreds of years, they trust and rely on each other and have not been let down.
All of our countries are becoming slaves to a bunch of no nation, unelected nobodies and we need to free ourselves. We will be free after 24062016.
Dung
SandyS on May 25, 2016 at 11:54 AM
"You think that a breakup of the EU is inevitable"
If they carry on as they are, yes. The Euro goes from 'strength to strength', Schengen allows the free passage of all things terrorist, Merkel threatens Germany's neighbours to take in refugees ... what could go wrong?
"the longer it is delayed the worse it will be.
Yes. 'Ever Closer Union' driven from from the top by the stateless Elites will only make it worse.
Then the subsequent breakup of Europe's nation states is also inevitable.
I have already posted that the European nation states are already breaking up, because that is the aim of the EU. It is written on the wall in the EU Parliament Visitor Centre. I put the quote in bold in my last post so that you would notice.
Neither is anything to do with Brexit and England (not necessarily the UK) will be able to sit on the sidelines remaining independent and wealthy with no immigrant or refugee problems.
I do not understand how you think anyone would think that any successful country could have 'no immigrant or refugee problems'. Every successful country has to deal with it, but those that do have less of a problem: just look at Australia, with its points system. We would be like any of the other 150+ sovereign nations that manage to make their way in the World, and we have done it before.
Britain wouldn't 'just sit on the sidelines'. Without the EU having power over us, we would be free to act and do what was considered best in our own interests, and that would include having consideration towards our neighbours. Our actions may also encourage others to act in a similar manner, not acting out victim-hood but ensuring their own people can live with the comforts that their collective hard work has created over the generations and without fear of civil disorder or threatened by alien forces.
I think when Britain leaves there is a better chance that the EU, if it still exists, will reach its goal of destroying the identity of the countries that are still members. The borders on the Continent are not as fixed as Britain's and English is becoming the language of the educated European. Though this destruction of national identity may bring a 'Yugoslav Peace' to the Continent, it will be what they have agreed to. It won't have Britain not being in the Euro, not being in the Schengen Area, not being involved in the distribution of Germany's invited, illiterate economic migrants, not being involved in the Euro-Coastguard, the Euro-Army, Euro-Navy, the Euro-Energy Policy, the Euro-Income-Tax Policy, the Euro-North Sea Health and Safety, so there would be less dissension [a disagreement that leads to discord :) ].
... Or we could just join up to them all and be one happy dysfunctional family :)
It is what David Cameron has always wanted, and Blair and Mandelson!
Robert Christopher
Order-Order: the Euro-Income-Tax Policy?
Funny, that David Cameron hasn't mentioned it.
Robert Christopher
Dung
I think The Troubles in Ulster were basically down to a significant minority and soon to be majority of a religious and ethnic portion of the population not wanting to be part of the UK. The Scottish referendum was split 55/45 so fairly close, a rerun is quite likely after an English leave and a Scottish remain vote. After that who knows.
Certainly since 1707 Scots fought in the British Army as part of a United Kingdom, after 1800 Irish soldiers fought in the British Army as part of a United Kingdom. Prior to that both had a long association of serving in European armies as allies and as mercenaries. In the case of Scottish soldiers allies of France from the 13th/14th century. I don't know how true but I have read that Scots/French dual nationality only end with the Entente Cordiale so there's a long standing association there, perhaps a folk memory of ancient friendships and mutual aid alliances accounts for there being more pro-EU sentiment in Scotland, who knows.
SandyS
Robert Christopher
Perhaps you should rewrite this work by Robert Burns?
Parcel Of Rogues
==============
Fareweel to a' our Scottish fame,
Fareweel our ancient glory;
Fareweel ev'n to the Scottish name,
Sae fam'd in martial story.
Now Sark rins over Solway sands,
An' Tweed rins to the ocean,
To mark where England's province stands-
Such a parcel of rogues in a nation!
What force or guile could not subdue,
Thro' many warlike ages,
Is wrought now by a coward few,
For hireling traitor's wages.
The English stell we could disdain,
Secure in valour's station;
But English gold has been our bane-
Such a parcel of rogues in a nation!
O would, or I had seen the day
That Treason thus could sell us,
My auld grey head had lien in clay,
Wi' Bruce and loyal Wallace!
But pith and power, till my last hour,
I'll mak this declaration;
We're bought and sold for English gold-
Such a parcel of rogues in a nation!
It seems to sum up your view perfectly.
SandyS
SandyS on May 25, 2016 at 7:09 PM
Why?
It would need to be translated, and I don't do poetry :)
Robert Christopher
Listening to the 'IN' campaign speakers, and the words they use, to me, shows that they are first class liars.
Take immigration: the 'OUTERS' people suggest that controlling immigration would be a good thing, to which the 'INNERS' respond that the NHS would collapse without immigration.
Who is suggesting sacking doctors and nurses? Any one or are the 'INNERS' just lying or being fantasists.
Are our hospitals overloaded due to the increase in population? Obviously yes.
Take immigration and its effect on jobs and wages: when the 'OUTERS' suggest that controlled immigration could reduce unemployment and stop wage deflation, the 'INNERS' bounce back with 'businesses will relocate if they can not find cheap labour!
Please, I want my children, grandchildren and other family members to be able to get a job in the future. We have a rash of zero hours contracts, sub-minimum wage jobs, businesses subsidised by benefits.
I want people who went to school here to be able to apply to a medical or nursing college and then apply and get an appropriate job in the NHS, I do not want people who barely speak English working in the NHS, just too dangerous.
There is much wrong with Britain today, the EU just increases the mess and reduces options to fix things.
Steve Richards
SandyS on May 24, 2016 at 10:27 AM
"Dodging the question"?
You asked whether various groups should be allowed to secede and, if there is no one from whom to seek permission, there is no question to answer.
It is a question of 'is it feasible' and, in the light of that, 'is it what the secessionist group want'; then there is what the rest of the larger group are going to do about it if there was a split, or not. Current behaviour will influence the credibility of the options presented and the choices made, as will the obvious opportunities offered outside the larger group.
It is a common activity in many areas of life.