More bilge from Imperial.
Apparently levels of antibodies in large random samples have declined quite noticeably. That set the hare running of immunity not lasting very long, as reported by Muppet News.
No attempt to defray alarm by pointing out that the lack of reinfections suggests that some form of immunity persists.
What is it with that place? Are they trying to outdo the bonking boffin's record?

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13028170/millions-risk-covid-infection-antibody-immunity-fell-second-wave/

MikeHig, just because the news hasn't highlighted all the possibilities, it doesn't mean that the scientists haven't considered or mentioned them. This article indicates a fair bit of balance.

Re re-infections, even antibody immunity would only just be waring off for the majority who caught covid in the first wave. Theoretically only about 3 million have had it in the UK and until recently it wasn't that prevalent to re-infect. I don't know anyone but AK who has had it. Of the 2 friends of friends who have had it - both died. While others will have had it, they don't seem to know. Those who had symptoms are those with the strongest antibody response. Maybe their antibodies will carry them for 6 months, 12, whatever. The doctors are admitting they don't know.

It's reported that globally flu is down 98%. That suggests disease transmission of all types has been impeded.

TinyCO2: you are quite right. I'm afraid I was venting. Knowing how the MSM behave I should have gone to the source before posting.
Imperial tends to trigger me for a series of reasons: Ferguson's initial refusal to share his code and data; his subsequent claim that 20,000 would not have died if the government had locked down sooner (I'm not trying to argue that issue - it's his motive for saying it when he did that grinds my gears causing, as it did, much extra grief and undermining even further our shaky trust in the govt); one of his colleagues' recent comment that tens of thousands will die before Christmas; then this latest release.
Imho there has to be some form of immunity out there, whether from T-cells, exposure to other coronaviruses, whatever. Over 45 million reported cases around the world and only a handful of confirmed re-infections says that something is at work. If not we would have had "front-line" folk like medics, nurses, care workers, waiters, etc getting it again.
Anecdotally, one of my kids had it back at the end of March. She was staying with me at the time, just when lockdown started, so we went into full isolation and, sure enough, I caught it 5 days later. I was pretty unwell but, luckily, not to the extent of calling for help or needing hospitalisation. So I was never tested. However she has had 3 antibody tests since which were all positive so I am pretty confident that I had it.
Wrt to that article, it's interesting that her the antibody count was markedly higher in the second test and again for the third. Medic friends have suggested that it might be due to continuing exposure - she's in healthcare - keeping her system fired up. Maybe it's normal for antibody levels to drop in the absence of any threat: another bit of context missing from the reports.
Another worry if immunity really is so short-lived, that weakens the case for a vaccine. If getting the disease full-on doesn't give lasting protection, what hope is there for a vaccine which is just a "fake" virus?
I do wonder if any indications of immunity are being suppressed to avoid weakening the argument for more restrictions. But I'm just a cynical old Hector.

The moment Ferguson mentioned models and the worst case, he was a bogey man for climate sceptics. His claim wasn't off the wall for the original data.

"Imho there has to be some form of immunity out there, whether from T-cells," MikeHig

Looking at the weirdly stable growth of global deaths rather than reinfections you may be right but because of the multiple variables each country has, I can't see a pattern. It's looking like deaths are now half what they were back in the spring due to treatments, which is good but contrary to outraged covid deniers this thing is still spreading. The UK was always expected to be one of the worst affected by a pandemic. Freedom mixed with a lot of people with co-morbidities. That second wave that wasn't going to happen is happening. The drop in normal flu levels indicates that what we're doing IS having an effect. It makes the case that this virus is very powerful.

Re the vaccine, it doesn't emulate the virus, it's a new type of vaccine. It looks like it gives a strong immune response at all age groups tested. I'm not sure that they've tested it on kids but then they may never vaccinate them. Because it doesn't emmulate the virus, immunity may last longer. Tests haven't been going on long enough to know. They have been working on a universal flu vaccine and vaccines for other nasties. They've made a lot of progress in the last 15+ years since SARS made it on the scene. What I do know is that they won't be able to eradicate this disease. Too many will shun the vaccine. Too many will assume that they're safer not taking it and they may be right but that will mean it will smoulder year after year, bringing our life expectancy down.

About 4 years ago I had a cold that was a ringer for covid-19. Loss of taste and smell. A slow decline with coughing and diminishing oxygen levels and months of long covid style recovery. Was that a covid cold? Might be but any T cell protection might be long gone. I'd rather face covid-19 with my immune system primed than without.

"I'd rather face covid-19 with my immune system primed than without".

And I would delay priming my immune system as long as possible. Even with a vaccine it doesn't mean covid-19 will be eradicated it will continue to smoulder as does the flu.

TinyCO2: I'm afraid I don't understand your line "Re the vaccine, it doesn't emulate the virus, it's a new type of vaccine. It looks like it gives a strong immune response at all age groups tested."

I thought all vaccines work by imitating the target virus so that the body thinks it is being infected and the counter-measures kick in? I've read comments about mimicing the virus' "spike", for example. Could you point me to a layman's description of how these new ones work? I'd like to get up to speed but usually find original articles are way above my pay grade in medical understanding.

Another bit of conflicting evidence is the finding that a large proportion of a sample of folk who caught the original SARS in 2003 still show a strong immunity reaction today, 17 years on.

Ipsos survey, conducted on behalf of the World Economic Forum, shows that three-quarters of adults would get a vaccine for COVID-19 if it were available.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/covid-19-coronavirus-vaccine-opinion-survey

Martyn, I'm glad to see that. "After you, Claude."

My doctor told me years ago to steer clear of the 'flu vaccine.

Mike, sorry, I meant the other way round. As far as I know flu vaccines are normally made directly from the appropriate virus. Sometimes the viruses are weakened, sometimes they're killed. Whereas the AstraZenica vaccine uses a monkey cold virus as a basis and is engineered to trick the immune system into thinking it's covid-19 and then killed so it can't replicate in humans. Why it might work better I don't know but that's the claim. SARS certainly created strong antibodies but it also had a very high fatality rate.

Some of the vaccines being developed use traditional methods.

There's a better article out there than this one but I can't remember where I saw it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53469839

"Astonishing footage of U.K.-wide #COVID19 testing facilities that are complete ghost towns"

If the testing facilities UK-wide are ghost towns where did the 347,626 tests processed on the 29/10/20 get tested?

Tomo

Do you really need the government to be transparent or you to be inspired for you to get a covid-19 test if you thought you needed one?

Latest from James Annan's Model:

Cases
Deaths

Does not include effects of lockdown in the forecast, (I believe), though he is going to tweak his inputs and rerun. If the model has some skill (and it has performed well to date), the rise of daily deaths to 500 by Mid-November and 1,000 by early December looks baked in. Hope I'm wrong I can't see restrictions being lifted on December 2.

Phil C: It is slightly encouraging that his projections are well below those being touted by SAGE. Scant comfort, of course.

"If the testing facilities UK-wide are ghost towns where did the 347,626 tests processed on the 29/10/20 get tested?"

Is the government about to change the type of test they are doing? The current PCR test is probably 12 hour minimum turnaround and a very labour intensive and expensive thing to do and I guess uses 1000s of pretty skilled workers on basically minimum wage/volunteering. I assume a single test is about 100 quid at cost even with a cheap workforce.

It looks like there are other almost as good tests around now which will be much quicker and cheaper which if that is the case I assume will replace a lot of the PCR labs that have just been set up.

From the Spectator website:
"A nasal spray that stops Covid-19 from being absorbed has protected ferrets from coronavirus, according to a study. Scientists from Columbia and Cornell universities developed a spray which attacks Sars-Cov-2, by attaching itself to the virus to prevent it fastening onto human cells. The authors said that because the ‘virus replication was completely blocked’, and the substance of the spray is ‘highly stable and non-toxic’, it presents a ‘safe and effective’ approach to reduce transmission of Covid-19."

Way back at the start of the pandemic I did wonder about using Vick's "First Defence" as that claims to block colds and colds are coronaviruses. If that were to be shown to be effective it would be good to own shares!

Wow. Two pieces of great news in the space of a week.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/covid-19-vaccine-candidate-effective-pfizer-biontech

If the model has some skill (and it has performed well to date), the rise of daily deaths to 500 by Mid-November and 1,000 by early December looks baked in. Hope I'm wrong, I can't see restrictions being lifted on December 2.

Nov 2, 2020 at 9:01 PM | Unregistered Commenter Phil Clarke

532 deaths yesterday. So much for the pandemic being 'effectively over' as posted at WUWT.

One occasion when I would have much preferred to have been proven wrong.

Phil C; one very small crumb of comfort.....at least these figures are well below the "scare-them-out-of-their-wits" graphs being waved around recently.