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Discussion > Covid 19 stuff

So Boris is back in isolation after being in contact with someone who has since tested positive.

I find this baffling. He definitely had the virus, quite severely. So why not test for immunity? There has been no mention of an antibody test. If he was tested and found to have little or no trace of antibodies, isolation would be understandable.

My guess is that this has caught the govt in a trap of their own making. There has been a persistent avoidance of the immunity question. It has not been discussed, afaik, so the reasons are anyone's guess. My own would be that, in the early days, it was genuinely an unknown issue and they were afraid lots of folk would use it as an excuse to kick over the traces. Since then they have stuck with that approach rather than rigorously monitoring the risk of reinfection. That risk is apparently extremely low. The failure to review it proactively and incorporate it into plans has led to today's situation.
There must be many thousands of key workers and the like who have had to self-isolate despite having had the virus. Hundreds of thousands of tests could have been avoided. A programme of antibody testing and rolling certification would have avoided so much cost and disruption.

Furthermore, this does not help the case for mass vaccination. There is a natural, common sense view that queries the effectiveness of vaccination if having the actual virus does not confer immunity, even if only short-term. The fact that the Pfizer vaccine - and maybe others - does not work by replicating the virus will be a hard sell (thanks Tiny CO2 for pointing that out).

Or have I missed something? If so, please put me out of my bafflement!

Nov 16, 2020 at 10:27 AM | Unregistered CommenterMikeHig

MikeHig

confidence inspiring it most certainly aint.... - and exactly the sort of issue that should be clearly addressed by the media since in essence it's a fairly straightforward matter requiring little technical detail knowledge.

- so it'll be largely and deliberately ignored.

Nov 16, 2020 at 11:13 AM | Registered Commentertomo

MikeHig. If you are baffled, how about me? Having contracted the disease, I had reason to believe that I was henceforth immune, at least for a time. Also given that members of my household did not succumb led me to further conclude that they were either immune (from a previous coronavirus cold) or were asymptomatic. My granddaughter is also tested every week and so far remains negative. But with all this talk of reinfection, of rapid loss of immunity, of different strains of the virus and now of the Blond Wonder having to self isolate despite having had the disease more severely than me, I realise I know nothing and I wonder if anyone does.

Nov 16, 2020 at 11:17 AM | Unregistered CommenterAK

"Covid in Italy September 2019"

AK

the politics and bureaucratic (and academic) power games seem to be consuming more effort than addressing the detail of the actual virus?

Nov 16, 2020 at 11:35 AM | Registered Commentertomo

tomo: "- so it'll be largely and deliberately ignored."
I fear you are right. If they address it now they will be open to the obvious criticism that they should have been tracking and assessing from the start. Saving face is more important.

AK: I'm in the same situation. One of my kids fell ill while staying with me right at the start of LD1 and I followed suit some days later. I was never tested as I was not bad enough to need treatment, luckily, but am pretty certain I had it because she has since had 3 antibody tests. All were positive which is strong enough proof for me as we had no outside contacts at the time. Interestingly the levels were higher each time, contradicting the recent "study" which found declining levels.

Nov 16, 2020 at 12:08 PM | Unregistered CommenterMikeHig
Nov 16, 2020 at 7:11 PM | Registered Commentertomo

Some positive news on immunity:
"A team from Oxford University and Oxford University Hospitals tested more than 12,000 volunteers for the presence of antibodies. Of the 11,052 who did not possess antibodies, 89 went on to contract Covid-19 over the course of six months. Of the 1,246 who did show antibodies, not one developed symptomatic Covid-19 during the course of the trial."

The full article is here:
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?tab=wm#inbox/FMfcgxwKjTXnJBTxnsvLlprMqmCZmKsr
It also describes more evidence for latent immunity.

As well as being good news in itself, it's encouraging to learn that this sort of work has been going on in the background.

Nov 20, 2020 at 6:32 PM | Unregistered CommenterMikeHig

Download the (expensive) app they said

yeah... OK

Nov 20, 2020 at 9:15 PM | Registered Commentertomo
Dec 7, 2020 at 7:56 PM | Registered Commentertomo

If an elderly person dies within 30 days of taking the vaccine will they have died with vaccine or from vaccine? Or not counted at all?

Dec 8, 2020 at 12:44 PM | Registered Commentertomo

tomo: I've had similar thoughts.

Given the frail condition of many/most of those first in line to be vaccinated, it seems likely that some will keel over within a few weeks. That's a very slippery PR ball for the government to handle, especially as they have clearly got butter-fingers. It's not hard to picture the headlines..."my *insert treasured relative* was doing well until he/she was vaccinated".

Another point: they plan to vaccinate everyone, whatever their virus history. Afaik none of the trials included folk who had already had the virus. I would be very interested to hear the views of an expert on whether there is any cause for concern.
My layman's guess is that a "classic" vaccine like the Oxford one would just be seen by the immune system as more virus. But I do wonder about these completely novel vaccines using "messenger RNA": is there any potential for over-stimulating the immune system in someone who has already had the bug?

Lastly, afaik there is still no word on immunity in those who had the virus and have test results or even antibodies to prove it. It just seems bizarre that only "vaccine immunity" will be recognised. Yet that has the follow-on problem that they do not know whether or not vaccination stops folk being infectious even though the it stops them becoming ill. In contrast the lack of re-infections shows that "natural" immunity does not have this problem.

Puzzled of Surrey.

Dec 8, 2020 at 6:01 PM | Unregistered CommenterMikeHig

MikeHig

I wondered what the homeopaths were up to ... I wish I hadn't looked

Dec 8, 2020 at 7:57 PM | Registered Commentertomo

Merry Xmas from the NHS

One has to wonder at the mindset that came up with the idea..... The RSPCA are considering a reindeer version.

Dec 12, 2020 at 10:26 AM | Registered Commentertomo

https://twitter.com/BBCPropaganda/status/1338572780208590848?s=19

cumulative Covid totals ... amazing if true

Dec 14, 2020 at 8:12 PM | Registered Commentertomo

source, then click on the data button
We wonder why the *cumulative total* for the 12th
is LOWER than for the 11th
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Dec 14, 2020 at 11:25 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

stewgreen

not confidence inspiring stuff really - as is the COVID infectious disease notifications peaking 7 weeks before COVID deaths in Autumn? That's incompatible with the known infection-to-death time period, suggesting an awful lot of misattributed COVID deaths in November

Dec 15, 2020 at 2:47 AM | Registered Commentertomo

I suppose my personal experience is just that - but with a slowly accumulating / increasing tally of acquaintances who've had Covid - I'm suspicious of stuff like this being pumped into the largest fleet of local newspapers in the UK by Gannett Inc. of McClean VA 22102 with comments turned off.....

Dec 17, 2020 at 9:40 PM | Registered Commentertomo

In the other place yesterday I wrote
I think it is plausible that something strange has popped up
– One scenario is that a superstrain has popped up
– or maybe the same chains that got the first wave are getting infected.

Where were we ?
Liverpool had in bad, but was coming out of it.
Manchester still had it, Hull was getting a second wave.
But 2 weeks passed and they were both well down .

Then we look and something was happening in Italy, Germany and Sweden
.. was it just the winter effect ?
Then we look and we’d expect with the northern towns falling the UK numbers should fall
but they didn’t
.. next thing Boris Gang are running around like headless chickens.

Update on FooC the BBC said there seems to be an unexplained rise in Turkey
but the beeboid was too busy claiming the Turkish government was covering up both
: The Positives tally
: The death tally

In the former they had reverted back to limiting the count to serious cases only.
That isn't evil cos it allows you to spot trends.
Otherwise what happens is the positive tally keeps climbing , but that is an effect of increased testing picking up very mild cases or even over counting.

Dec 21, 2020 at 10:21 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

BTW Our neighbour has swallowed off Sky
“You stand a one hundred in 240 chance of getting it”
…Well that is meaningless
cos over a 1000 years most of us would get it.

In guess he means that this week in some areas 400 in 100K have it ie 1 in 250 people in that area.
Now his daughter is not coming now on Saturday
cos they go to her partner’s family on Christmas Day

Dec 21, 2020 at 10:22 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

It's always worth considering the next mutation
like
- Is the virus better at flying across the air now ?
- Is the viral dose that you need to get an infection now lower ?
- Or is it weather eg did it used to flow out of someone's flat and get killed by UV, but now instead it lives and flows back into the next flats ventilation in-duct.?

- Is it in buildings' ventilation systems ?

Dec 21, 2020 at 2:26 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Someone said that the differenc from the first lockdown
is that now a lot of hospital operations are going on
and that provides a good pool of Covid victims

- Also these months people' vitamin D will be down.

Dec 21, 2020 at 4:57 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

terrorism is a another scenario

One size fits all is a mad policy

One guy pointed out his completely tested family is prevented from visiting his sister's completely tested family.

And there is mad stuff like only one parent from a family being able to visit their baby in hospital
..they live in the same house.

Dec 21, 2020 at 8:37 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen