Discussion > Covid 19 stuff
I've tried twice today to post on this thread, but Captcha defeated me. Third time lucky?
Phil, I don't think you're sufficiently sceptical about the reporting of Chinese coronavirus figures. Although I have no evidence to support my gut feeling, I suspect they're under-reporting by a factor of 10, or even 20.
China's population is probably 4 x that of the USA, they got the virus sooner, in many huge cities their people live cheek by jowl, and yet they claim to have had only half the number of cases, and today it's reported that US deaths have surpassed those in China. I don't seek to downplay the scale of the problem in the USA; I think the CCP seeks to downplay the scale of the problem in China.
Mark Hodgson
Mar 31, 2020 at 7:34 PM Mark Hodgson
Chinese Medics can claim any number, provided it matches the expectations of the model of Chinese supremacy in medicine and control.
It is remarkably similar to the way Climate Science prediction and reporting works.
golf charlie
Trials of the new Dyson ventilators are showing promise.
Patients are picking up nicely.....
Phil Clarke
This is the non Peer Reviewed, but Approved by China, rushed out assessment by CHINESE Doctors, based in China. Definitely more trustworthy than Hockey Teamsters, because they declare the limitations.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0156-0?error=cookies_not_supported&code=b4d9dff4-ee31-4c3e-8286-c05148f41c2d
"Hydroxychloroquine, a less toxic derivative of chloroquine, is effective in inhibiting SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro
Jia Liu, Ruiyuan Cao, Mingyue Xu, Xi Wang, Huanyu Zhang, Hengrui Hu, Yufeng Li, Zhihong Hu, Wu Zhong & Manli Wang
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2/2019-nCoV) poses a serious threat to global public health and local economies. As of March 3, 2020, over 80,000 cases have been confirmed in China, including 2946 deaths as well as over 10,566 confirmed cases in 72 other countries. Such huge numbers of infected and dead people call for an urgent demand of effective, available, and affordable drugs to control and diminish the epidemic."
" We have recently reported that two drugs, remdesivir (GS-5734) and chloroquine (CQ) phosphate, efficiently inhibited SARS-CoV-2 infection in vitro1. Remdesivir is a nucleoside analog prodrug developed by Gilead Sciences (USA). A recent case report showed that treatment with remdesivir improved the clinical condition of the first patient infected by SARS-CoV-2 in the United States2, and a phase III clinical trial of remdesivir against SARS-CoV-2 was launched in Wuhan on February 4, 2020. However, as an experimental drug, remdesivir is not expected to be largely available for treating a very large number of patients in a timely manner. Therefore, of the two potential drugs, CQ appears to be the drug of choice for large-scale use due to its availability, proven safety record, and a relatively low cost. In light of the preliminary clinical data, CQ has been added to the list of trial drugs in the Guidelines for the Diagnosis and Treatment of COVID-19 (sixth edition) published by National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China."
golf charlie
Impartial reliable source BBC R4 claimed this morning that Trump "once described coronavirus as a hoax". Not even Snopes agrees with that although they can't for some reason bring themselves to describe it as "False" - what happened was that Trump's opponents misrepresented him as describing coronavirus as a hoax.
R4 also said that Trump said that it was no worse than flu, something which Dr Fauci, one of the leading medics on the US coronavirus task force, has also acknowledged in the NEMJ as a possibility. We won't know that one until we have a better idea of overall incidence, with a number of indications in the frustratingly limited overall incidence data so far that Trump may be correct.
Oh dear
Ah, but you have to remember my Trump tweet hypothesis: for every Trump tweet or statement there exists another Trump tweet saying the exact opposite. In yesterday's briefing he called his former self a liar:
A lot of people have said, ‘Ride it out. Don’t do anything, just ride it out. And think of it as the flu.’ But it’s not the flu. It’s vicious.
There are loads of examples of Trump downplaying the seriousness of the pandemic, saying things like We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five. And those people are all recuperating successfully, or just plain lying We’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up even after other politicians and experts - including ex-members of the specialist pandemic unit the Trump administration closed down - were calling for urgent action.
Phil Clarke
"Ah, but you have to remember my Trump tweet hypothesis: for every Trump tweet or statement there exists another Trump tweet saying the exact opposite. In yesterday's briefing he called his former self a liar:
Apr 1, 2020 at 10:14 AM Phil Clarke"
Ah, another lie from Phil Clarke.
golf charlie
This groupthink thing
whereby people shout "how dare you" at people who have a different POV
On @TalkRadio Rightwing shock jock Mike Graham had a caller on
who wanted to raise the point that current cure, might be worse that cause
and that there might be better alternatives like where we lock down the most vulnerable
but more workers take more of a risk.
Mike wasn't have any of it and started to be very bullying to the caller
and intimidating him to self censor
The thing is that is exactly what we see in climate dogma.
That the alarmists have a fixed positions and believe there is no other way
and are absolutely disgusted that anyone should have a different POV
.. and are adamant they must be shut down.
stewgreen
Oh, the horror, the horror!
Phil Clarke
Oh, the horror, the horror!
Apr 1, 2020 at 4:32 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke
She hasn't realised what everyone else has already worked out, that excellent prospects are ahead
https://notrickszone.com/2020/04/01/climate-crisis-rip-people-will-be-in-no-mood-to-stay-in-panic-mode-after-covid-19-scare-ends/
"COVID-19 has not only been a nightmare for the public worldwide, but especially for “climate crisis” alarmists who have seen their agenda disappear from the media radar. And it’s going to stay off the radar for quite some time. People can take only so much panic and restriction.
Once the COVID-19 crisis subsides, and it will in a few months, the global citizenry will be in absolutely no mood to keep on panicking. They’ll want to go back to the prosperity they previously enjoyed.
“Enough sacrifice and restrictions,” they’ll be saying."
golf charlie
1049 deaths in USA yesterday, they seem still to be on the upwardly exponential part of the grim curve.
Hopefully we will see the effect of the social distancing measures feeding through in the next few days …
Phil Clarke
COP 26 Glasgow not very important after all.
golf charlie
COP 26 Glasgow will go ahead. The venue is currently in use as a hospital.
Phil Clarke
Social Distancing may have reduced R0 to 0.62. Stay home and watch telly to beat this thing!
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-transmission/comix-impact-of-physical-distance-measures-on-transmission-in-the-UK.html
Phil Clarke
Meanwhile, the EU is facing Coronavirus Backlash Syndrome now being spread deliberately in Italy.
https://order-order.com/2020/04/02/salvini-ramps-anti-eu-rhetoric-coronavirus/
"Feeling against the EU is rising in Italy, with Matteo Salvini ramping up his rhetoric against the organisation, blaming it for not helping – and even hindering – Italy’s Coronavirus response. Although no longer in Government, Salvini is riding ten points above his rival parties in the Italian opinion polls. When the next election comes, he’s more likely than not to become the next Prime Minister of Italy. That’s why this tweet really matters…"
“Once the virus is defeated, the rediscussion of this Europe and of Italy’s role will be a must, at least in terms of public debate. Nothing came to the rescue of Italy from the EU and indeed blackmail, trade wars, blocking masks, agricultural products, truck drivers.”
Nobody is asking why so much money has been wasted (mainly by the same people) fighting CO2, and BREXIT.
golf charlie
"China Says It's Beating Coronavirus. But Can We Believe Its Numbers?"
https://time.com/5813628/china-coronavirus-statistics-wuhan/
"As ever for Beijing though, political considerations appear paramount. After China’s number of total infections was surpassed by the U.S. and other nations, the country was able to leverage its apparent success as a sign its harsh internal measures had bought others time, while assuaging anger at its initial bungling and cover-up of the outbreak that has so far claimed more than 42,000 lives around the globe. (Research by the University of Southampton suggests 95% of infections could have been avoided if China had acted three weeks earlier.)
Mainland China officially stands at 82,294 infections with 3,310 deaths. But it also had 1,441 asymptomatic COVID-19 patients under observation as of Monday, according to the National Health Commission. Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post newspaper reported March 22 that confidential documents indicate there were a total of 42,000 asymptomatic cases by the end of February that were excluded from official tallies.
Including those cases would mean China leapfrogs Italy and Spain back into second place overall for COVID-19 infections, though still behind the U.S., which had some 190,000 cases as of April 1.
But it’s just one of many concerns about official COVID-19 statistics in China. One study by six researchers from the University of Hong Kong found that 232,000 people in China may have been infected by Feb. 20, compared to the approximately 75,000 cases the country had officially reported on that date.
The study, which was published March 27 and has not been peer reviewed, examined what the case numbers would have looked like if the same case definition—a set of standard criteria for classifying whether a person has a particular disease — had been used throughout the epidemic.
According to the study, China’s National Health Commission issued seven versions of the case definition from January to early March as health experts learned more about the virus. (Making the most recent update to include asymptomatic cases the eighth.)
Ben Cowling, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong and one of the study’s authors, tells TIME that the case definition used in China was initially very restrictive, including only severely ill patients. It was gradually broadened to allow for the confirmation of milder cases, he says.
This underreporting hindered the world’s ability to understand to the severity of the outbreak in Wuhan, which has been under strict lockdown since Jan. 23 after the deadly novel coronavirus was traced to a seafood market in the city of 11 million.
“In Wuhan, in the early stages, testing was quite restricted to people with severe illness,” Cowling says. “That was one of the early limitations or missteps in the response was to focus on severe cases, not recognizing that there were a lot of other mild cases as well.”
TIME has spoken with many sickened Wuhan residents and relatives of presumed COVID-19 victims who were never included on official tallies during the outbreak’s peak. There are also countless reports of people collapsing in the street and bodies laid out outside apartment buildings. But only those who died after first being diagnosed with COVID-19 are included in official statistics."
Mark Hodgson
COP 26 Glasgow will go ahead. The venue is currently in use as a hospital.
Apr 2, 2020 at 12:18 PM Phil Clarke
It is probably booked for some pop concerts and talent shows in 2021, rather more useful stuff for Glasgow's economy.
golf charlie
#1 Infection tests are a magic solution ..the mob shout
#2 MASKS are magic solution ...the mob shout
On R2 an expert warned “A mask is a VIRUS-COLLECTOR strapped to the front of your face
.. you then spend more time exposed cos you think you have protection
..when you move the virus-collector is potentially moving the virus from place to place
… you then touch your face to take it off ..so there is a risk of putting virus int your nose”
etc.
Next there was someone on who is making and distributing homemade masks
FFS a mask is a piece of SAFETY equipment
that is why manufacturers have to be certified
and why there is a limited supply.
You can’t go around manufacturing homemade safety equipment.
stewgreen
Mr Clarke (Apr 1, 2020 at 4:32 PM): that comment reveals more about you than you might realise, though many might consider it more confirmation of what they already suspected.
Radical Rodent
Mr Clarke (Apr 1, 2020 at 4:32 PM): that comment reveals more about you than you might realise, though many might consider it more confirmation of what they already suspected.
Apr 2, 2020 at 3:52 PM Radical Rodent
Predictable too
"Mar 26, 2020 at 6:15 PM | Phil Clarke
You are clearly hoping that the death toll will exceed that due to corrupted Climate Science.
Mar 27, 2020 at 12:12 AM golf Charlie"
Climate Scientists are now developing sudden-onset Attention Deficit Disorder, and need to be banished to the World's Naughty Corner and ignored. According to Climate Scientists, the Arctic is warm and pleasant, and there are no nasty Polar Bears.
golf charlie
R4 expert just talking abut the R value ..spreading rates
"For Covid19 it was about 2.5 people after 10 days
but that pans out to be 406 after 60 days
..but with isolation intervention that is 15 after 60 days
..and can even be 2.5 with tighter regime"
wow that is way less than the 9 in a single bus journey claim
The next expert said there can be a trade off
When you stay at home.. you are far more likely to pick up the infection from someone at home
than if you spend time away from them by being at work"
stewgreen
Wuhan "patient zero" a credible tale
tomo
Wuhan "patient zero" a credible tale
Apr 2, 2020 at 7:57 PM tomo
Certainly credible and logical, with evidence (apparently) to back it up. Unlike Mann's Hockey Stick of course.
golf charlie
Phil Clarke
A new point has been made, that medical staff have died.
People do die at work, zero deaths is almost impossible
soldiers, police, medical staff know job risk is not zero.
For a start some of them think they are god, and don't follow safe procedure
However in Covid the prevention of MED deaths should be important from the start.
I hope that they get vaccinations soon
and volunteer older doctors should be kept from Covid patients.