qotd

a one-dimensional story is being imposed on a multi-dimensional world

Excellent, by Monckton of Brenchley, so much more reliable than Climate Scientists, as he compares different methods of analysis of the statistics

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/04/are-lockdowns-working/

Radical Rodent Re video about Wuhan Lab.

It's certainly true that China lies. It lies to itself. Food hygiene is abysmal and regional authorities often cover stuff on their patch up. Th Chinese loves that bad news doesn't get out, until it can't hide it from the World then and local officals are for the chop - see baby milk scandal.

Could this come from a lab? It's not implausible. Leaks of diseases do happen and that includes us. I wouldn't be surprised if some eneterprising animal keeper found dead animals from the lab, good food for his carnivores. Might pangolins chow down on maggots that had fed on dead animals? It's also possible that the staff managed to get infected, maybe most of them without knowing.

The video at Apr 3, 2020 at 11:28 PM however is rubbish. Every hospital in the World where there is a large number of infections at once,people will enact triage. Some won't even get taken to hospital. Intubation is dangerous and damaging. In only a maximum of 50% of cases does it result in survival. If there is a choice between two people the one with the most life to live and/or the best chance of survival and another, they aren't going to draw lots. When it comes to PPE, there is a shortage the World over but as you find in the UK, one there is no PPE, the next there has been a delivery.

I can't say if the video she disects is 100% real but does the woman think that all the international videos of bodies and exhausted medical staff are making it up or just Elmhurst? At worst the Washington Post thing is a nudge for action, based on reality. If not today, then absolutely next week.

Honest reporting

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Ventilators-aren-t-a-panacea-for-a-pandemic-like-coronavirus

Wonder if the BBC will run this wildlife / science-y TV show from China

Californians are already paying the prices demanded by their Green Governor, but they did elect him, so that is fair.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/04/heres-why-californians-are-getting-reamed-at-the-gas-pump-despite-rock-bottom-oil-prices/

https://order-order.com/2020/04/05/will-lockdown-end/

https://order-order.com/2020/04/05/hancock-threatens-exercise-ban-public-dont-follow-rules/

Apr 5, 2020 at 2:58 PM tomo

The source data and authors are here:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2

I just posted this at Unthreaded. It seems appropriate to put it here too:

I'm increasingly confused about Covid-19, and as to whether the response to it has been proportionate, given that it is hugely damaging to the economy, destroying many perfectly good businesses, pushing decent people into bankruptcy, saddling the government with massive debt for decades to come, and destroying (even if only temporarily - I hope) many of our freedoms.

Clearly lives are more valuable than finance, to all but the most financially mercenary. Clearly, also, Covid-19 deaths are horrible, and are the sorts of death one wouldn't wish on one's worst enemy. Clearly it kills some young, fit people who don't seem to have underlying health conditions.

And yet, despite all that, two articles I saw on the internet today give me pause for thought (the first a thoughtful and thought-provoking article from the BBC - credit where credit is due:.

"Coronavirus: How to understand the death toll"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

"...The death figures being reported daily are hospital cases where a person dies with the coronavirus infection in their body - because it is a notifiable disease cases have to be reported.

But what the figures do not tell us is to what extent the virus is causing the death.

It could be the major cause, a contributory factor or simply present when they are dying of something else.

Most people who die with coronavirus have an underlying health condition, such as heart disease or diabetes, that may be more of a factor.

For example, an 18-year-old in Coventry tested positive for coronavirus the day before he died and was reported as its youngest victim at the time.

But the hospital subsequently released a statement saying his death had been due to a separate "significant" health condition and not connected to the virus.

There are, however, other cases, including health workers and a 13-year-old boy from London, who died with no known health conditions.

The Office for National Statistics is now trying to determine the proportion of these deaths that are caused specifically by coronavirus..

Imperial College London modelling, used to inform government, has suggested 500,000 could have died by August in the UK if the virus was left to rip through the population.

It also warned the government's previous strategy to slow the spread by asking those with symptoms to self-isolate and shield the most vulnerable could have led to 250,000 deaths.

Now, it is hoped the lockdown will limit deaths to 20,000.

But that does not mean 480,000 lives are being saved - many will die whether or not they get the virus.

Every year, about 600,000 people in the UK die. And the frail and elderly are most at risk, just as they are if they have coronavirus.

Nearly 10% of people aged over 80 will die in the next year, Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, at the University of Cambridge, points out, and the risk of them dying if infected with coronavirus is almost exactly the same.

That does not mean there will be no extra deaths - but, Sir David says, there will be "a substantial overlap".

"Many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period," he says.

Knowing exactly how many is impossible to tell at this stage.

Prof Neil Ferguson, the lead modeller at Imperial College London, has suggested it could be up to two-thirds.

But while deaths without the virus would be spread over the course of a year, those with the virus could come quickly and overwhelm the health service....

...The lockdown, itself, however could cost lives.

Prof Robert Dinwall, from Nottingham Trent University, says "the collateral damage to society and the economy" could include:

mental health problems and suicides linked to self-isolation
heart problems from lack of activity
the impact on health from increased unemployment and reduced living standards
Others have also pointed to the health cost from steps such as delaying routine operations and cancer screening.

Meanwhile, University of Bristol researchers say the benefit of a long-term lockdown in reducing premature deaths could be outweighed by the lost life expectancy from a prolonged economic dip.

And the tipping point, they say, is a 6.4% decline in the size of the economy - on a par with what happened following the 2008 financial crash.

It would see a loss of three months of life on average across the population because of factors from declining living standards to poorer health care...."

Also:

"The inflexibility of our lumbering NHS is why the country has had to shut down"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/03/inflexibility-lumbering-nhs-country-has-had-shut/

"Why are we clapping the NHS? It is right and just to clap NHS workers, but that is not the same thing. Virtually everyone has reason to thank good nurses, doctors and paramedics. But if we are to praise large organisations for how effectively they have dealt with the coronavirus crisis, we should be clapping vigorously for Sainsbury’s, Tesco, Waitrose and Morrisons, who have responded nimbly to sudden extra demand for one of life’s basics – food. We should give only rather tepid applause for the efforts of the NHS to look after another of life’s basics – health.

As its name suggests, the National Health Service is there to serve the health of the nation. In this crisis, the roles have reversed – it is seen as the duty of the nation to serve the NHS. “Protect the NHS. Save lives,” says the slogan, in that rather surprising order. Children are made to recite it like a prayer. How are we to do this? We must help the NHS by avoiding hospitals and surgeries, we are told. The Government’s policy of lockdown is in significant part dictated by the demands not of patients, but of the NHS, and by its lack of adaptability and readiness...."

Add to all that the fact that Hancock is now threatening to ban us from even taking exercise, and the attitude of some in authority (closing parks, stopping travel in sealed cars that represent no threat to anyone, stopping people from walking in wild places miles from any other people) and I do worry that all sense of proportion has been lost, and that we're sleep-walking to disaster, especially when I see no sign of things being worse in Sweden, which has avoided going down this route.

I repeat, I don't seek to minimise the scale of this crisis, and I feel greatly for all caught up in it personally. Also, I'm following the rules and advice scrupulously. But do the rules and advice go too far? I'd welcome others' views. Personally, I just don't know, and am increasingly confused.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/05/trial-for-potential-coronavirus-treatment-is-underway-at-montefiore-and-einstein/
"*The randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial* is being led by principal investigator Barry Zingman, M.D., professor of medicine at Einstein and clinical director, infectious diseases, in the Moses division of Montefiore Health System. The trial is “adaptive,” meaning it can be modified to include other investigational treatments. “This flexibility allows us to add additional therapies to the trial step-by-step to improve treatment as the pandemic continues,” said Dr. Zingman."

" Trial participants are hospitalized patients with a laboratory-confirmed coronavirus infection and lung complications, including rattling sounds when breathing, a need for supplemental oxygen, abnormal chest X-rays showing pneumonia, or the need for a mechanical ventilator."

http://joannenova.com.au/2020/04/another-possible-cure-from-coronavirus-found-in-sheep-dip-invermectin/

Stephen McIntyre
@ClimateAudit 4 Apr
interesting in vivo results from ivermectin, a very interesting drug. Original article is here: https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011.

"ivermectin is more exotic than hydroxychloroquine, not likely to be used much for months and thus far not praised by Trump. Thus good chance CDC will support."

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011

I repeat, I don't seek to minimise the scale of this crisis, and I feel greatly for all caught up in it personally. Also, I'm following the rules and advice scrupulously. But do the rules and advice go too far? I'd welcome others' views. Personally, I just don't know, and am increasingly confused.

I am struck by two things: the unreal/surreal nature of it, and the speed with which it went from an apparently obscure infection on the other side of the world, probably mild, probably contained, to global pandemic, thousands a day dying and economies cratering.

Virtually everyone was caught napping, including me, I've been critical of the response (and I think the 'who knew what, when and what did they do about it' enquiries will be revealing) but I did not sound the alarm myself until just over 4 weeks ago when I read about the situation in Lombardy, too late to prevent the virus inflicting some serious damage to my stock portfolio.

But I'm sitting in my lounge, isolated in a remote Derbyshire village, looking at the TV news bulletins of doom then turning my attention to the hills opposite, watching a tractor doing whatever it is farmers do to pasture in April and other than the usual hikers and cyclists being reduced in number, everything looks utterly normal. Nobody in my circle has (knowingly) had the infection, not even a friend-of-a-friend-of-a-friend. I've read a lot of apocalyptic science fiction and from here at least there's a definite air of unreality about our current science fact. I read stories like our local dairy getting a request from an undertaker asking if they have any portable refrigerators they could spare and I think 'Did that really just happen?'.

I do not think the current measures go too far. There are two key numbers: percentage mortality and reproduction index (R0) and there's a deal of uncertainty in the estimates of both, mainly because testing has not been adequate. But two things we have established from experience in other countries - social distancing works, in that it slows the rate of spread of infection, and if the ICU resource becomes overwhelmed you get a significant increase in mortality. Modelling by Imperial showed that our ICU capacity will be adequate as long as isolation measures are followed. The policy goal must surely be to minimise the eventual death count, so a little economic pain in the short term must be worthwhile. Dead consumers don't spend much.

FWIW, a relative works for the MOD and he has been sharing their internal projections, which have been consistent - the UK epidemic will peak mid-June. I hope that turns out to be pessimistic - we're off the exponential growth curve now - but it is going to be a marathon not a sprint.

Another day, another small scale trial.

A second French group, led by Jean-Michel Molina, has now tested the hydroxychloroquine-azithromycin combination treatment in 11 patients at the Hôpital Saint-Louis in Paris, France, and their results were strikingly different.

Like the Marseille study, the Molina trial was also a small pilot study. Molina and colleagues used the same dosing regimen as Gautret. In contrast, however, to the Gautret study, eight of the 11 patients had underlying health conditions, and 10 of 11 had fevers and were quite ill at the time the dosing began.

These Paris researchers found that after five to six days of treatment with hydroxychloroquine (600 mg per day for 10 days) and azithromycin (500 mg on day 1 and 250 mg on days 2 to 5), eight of the 10 patients still tested positive for COVID-19. Of these 10 patients, one patient died, two were transferred to the ICU and another had to be removed from the treatment due to serious complications.

Link for the above

https://theconversation.com/a-small-trial-finds-that-hydroxychloroquine-is-not-effective-for-treating-coronavirus-135484

Mar 26, 2020 at 6:15 PM | Phil Clarke

You are clearly hoping that the death toll will exceed that due to corrupted Climate Science.

Mar 27, 2020 at 12:12 AM golf charlie

Nothing much has changed then?

If this is accurate then treatments should change ,,,

http://archive.is/XzJXW

One of the few cost savings for the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-51112821
COP26: Climate summit may cost 'several hundred million pounds'
The cost of a UN climate change conference in Glasgow could be "several hundred million pounds", police say.

Up to 90,000 people - delegates, observers, heads of state and media - are expected to attend COP26, over 12 days in November.

A Scottish Police Authority report says it will be the largest mobilisation of police officers in the UK.

Scottish ministers say they expect the UK government to cover the "core costs" including emergency services funding.

But a spokesperson added there was a "lack of clarity" from Westminster over the issue.

Phil and tomo, thanks for your thoughts. I'm hanging on to the idea that we need to keep self-isolating, though I'm not sure that we're looking at is "a little economic pain in the short term". On the contrary, I suspect that when this is all over, the 2008 recession will look like a walk in the park, and the worldwide economic damage from the worldwide lock-down will be more akin to the great depression of the late 1920s and 1930s.

A few days ago the chilling reality of Covid-19 definitely hit home. In the space of a day, the first death of a patient with Covid-19 in our little market town was reported - he was aged 81, but his family said he was fit and healthy for his age, with no underlying health conditions of which they were aware. On the same day I learned of the death, with Covid-19, of someone I used to work with and who lived locally, though not in our town. He was aged 77 and had heart issues. Then I spoke to the owners of a holiday cottage in Lewis where we were booked for a holiday next week, and which obviously now has had to be delayed. I usually spoke to the husband, but on this occasion his wife answered the 'phone, and told me that her husband had tested positive for Covid-19. Fortunately he seems to be recovering well.

I'll continue to obey the injunction not to travel, and to self-isolate as much as possible, and will keep fingers crossed that, as today's numbers in the UK might indicate, things are starting to go the right way (though today's news from Italy doesn't look good after a potentially promising few days).

A bit of blunt honesty here

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/06/coronavirus-covid-19-chinese-virus-the-exit-strategy/

By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Apr 6, 2020 at 6:55 PM tomo
Quinine as a tonic and diet supplement was used as a prophylactic all over Europe, and as a cure
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quinine

The assumption that one drug on its own can "fix" Coronavirus, is premature. Combinations may be the answer. Different combinations of a variety of drugs have proved very successful for those infected with HIV.

The use of Chloroquine as a cure for those already infected and with advanced and life threatening symptoms may not be a fair trial.

"I'm hanging on to the idea that we need to keep self-isolating, though I'm not sure that we're looking at is "a little economic pain in the short term". On the contrary, I suspect that when this is all over, the 2008 recession will look like a walk in the park, and the worldwide economic damage from the worldwide lock-down will be more akin to the great depression of the late 1920s and 1930s."
Apr 6, 2020 at 7:30 PM Mark Hodgson

Unfortunately, as individuals and for the UK, self isolation remains the only logical option, unless it is intended to get infected deliberately.

The UK and US Government spending is intended to keep economies in hibernation, without mass business failures, to avoid a 1930s sized Depression. Presumably a worst case Disaster Plan had previously identified this as a possibility. Meanwhile, the EU is still arguing about future arguments, not even talking about talks.

My original thought was that the recession would not be as bad as 2008, based on China's Economy, Manufacturing and Export stopping for a few months. I was wrong. For economies to start doing anything, there needs to be a method of testing and confirming those who have recovered, and get them active.

That is where I would like to be, having accepted that I can not avoid infection permanently, and hence my personal frustration with self isolation, even though I know that it is the optimal course of action for the UK.