Discussion > President Trump
Phil Clarke: " or should we in fact not be too hasty in assigning significance to large percentage variations in a small number?" I suspect to the females involved it is not a small number.
Don't warmists worry about the significance to small changes in numbers (0.01 degrees etc)?
Steve Richards
@PC
just out of curiosity ... have you been to Sweden? Do you actually know any Swedes?
tomo
Forget fake news about Trump, this is real:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/02/22/whats-coming-a-dramatic-shift-in-epa-priorities/
If it was US Policy that CO2 is a pollutant, how long before common sense prevails, and it becomes US Policy that CO2 is NOT a pollutant?
golf charlie
I suspect to the females involved it is not a small number.
Of course. I have no wish to understate the impact of the offences on the 3% of Swedish women affected. Any more than I would downplay the impact on the families and loved ones of people who lose their lives to climate change.
Phil Clarke
This is intriguing; crime statistics possibly as adjusted as temperature records.
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kim
So in another of the "we didn't get the result we wanted, let's change the system" articles... or perhaps "the elite know better and how better to exclude the plebs".
RICHARD DAWKINS All voters are equal – but are some more equal than others?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fY2gE_8oYd8
Society, democracy, don't function because there is a set or absolute rules, that a right answer is universal. They only function because of one simple thing: TRUST.
It is that simple.
So this "wonderful" idea of given every member of a voting group a test and a point score, and that point score determines the voting weight?
Who the F*CK chooses and writes the questions? Who determines the right answers?
Political influence is unavoidable, or you have a priestly elite who are guardians of the truth. There are perfect modern examples of how that turns out - communism (party membership) and Islam (there are about 10 right answers and everyone else is wrong) or you have the SJW politics evolving where you have no idea what is the current fashion for right or wrong, but don't bother trying because you are always wrong anyway.
I have said democracy is about people having the ability to remove the bastards in charge (because they use the power given in them to remain in power.) Well to refine that, democracy is about trust. Trust in the system. And from that, the peaceful and organised removal and bestowing of trust on individuals to manage society.
But people always lose trust, if they do not have democracy they will just destroy in none-peaceful, none-organised means.
All hail the experts!
Media Hoar
Phil Clarke. Big mistake. In my opinion (so invariably wrong) you were more than holding your own against all- comers regarding crime and crime statistics in Sweden, but then you "go n'spoil it all" by mentioning climate change. Here that means you lose.
Supertroll
Supertroll
I think Phil's linking to an 8-year old article in the Telegraph claiming 300,000 deaths a year from global warming/climate change (whatever) that is unproven BS and which ignores the deaths from the cold every winter in Europe and other cold places, was definitely a mistake.
I was refraining from commenting further as I could see both sides of the argument, and was trying to keep an open mind, but that post/link just demonstrates that fake news isn't fake if you want to believe it.
Mark Hodgson
"From the Crime Survey, women exposed to sexual offences :2005 1.6%, 2014 1.8%, 2015 3.0%. So yes, an increase of 87% since 2005 and a one year jump of 66% 2014 to 2015. I don't recall disputing that."
Does this help?
Sweden took in a record 163,000 asylum seekers in 2015. Sexual offences declined by 13% between 2014 and 2015, to about the same rate as 2005..
To sum up you made the assertion (above) that there had been no increase in sexual crimes in Sweden between 2005 and 2015 which is untrue. When pointed to the actual statistics, i.e. a near doubling you changed the assaults to the percentage of women being assaulted to trivialise it. In fact rape is an unusual crime and is usually measured in numbers per 100,000, Sweden's is 53.1 rapes per 100,000 of women in Sweden, even more trivial than you've made it in your posts. It is however, the second highest in the world.
I'm leaving it there if you don't mind I think, but don't know, that Trump may have a point and find it surprising that anyone would go to such lengths as to deny he might have. Trumphobia?
geronimo
Trumphobia?
Beats Trumpophilia any day.
We've got to keep our country safe. You look at what's happening in Germany, you look at what's happening last night in Sweden. Who would believe this? Sweden! They took in large numbers, they’re having problems like they never thought possible.
Problems like an annual homicide rate equal to 2 days in the US, and a decrease in unemployment and crime. Tlarge in percentage terms but from a small number to a slightly less small number. The one figure the alarmists can honestly point to is an uptick in sexual offences as reported by the national crime survey, which is not reflected in the reported offences and at least some of which is likely due to a change in the law which brought more offences into the category.
No I don't know any Swedes, but they do seem to be having a good laugh at #TinyTrump.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sweden-donald-trump-official-twitter-refugee-rape-attack-claims-debunk-immigration-a7592821.html
Phil Clarke
This is intriguing; crime statistics possibly as adjusted as temperature records.
As the net effect of temperature adjustments is to increase the trend, and most crime stats in Sweden are trending down, unlikely.
Heh.
Phil Clarke
Oh, dear, Mr Clarke (Feb 23, 2017 at 12:39 AM), you really do let yourself down at times, don’t you. I would have thought someone of your personal debating skills would have been able to shred that article without breaking sweat – it is so riddled with flaws that even I could eviscerate it! (It has to go back 6 years, to 2003, for the latest “deadly heatwave” in Europe, and there has been none since.)
Every single one of those “disasters caused by climate change” occurs each and every year, to varying degrees, and have done since Adam was a lad. It would be more accurate for that article to have stipulated that most of the death and destruction they use as examples are really being caused by the generated fear of climate change – or, perhaps, being given the signal that it is okay to be stupid, because you can always blame it on climate change. IF illegal logging in the Philippines was stopped, entire villages would not be wiped out by mud-slides so depressingly frequently. IF the people of the Pacific islands built their homes a little more solidly, and away from the known flood areas, they would not have been so damaged by one of the typhoons that wander around that area at certain times of the years. IF the rivers around Carlisle, or the ditches of the Somerset Levels, had been maintained as they had been since as far back as the Roman era, there would not have been the flooding that happened. IF the East Coast of the States took proper consideration of the high likelihood of hurricanes, or the local government of New Orleans properly maintained the levees on the Mississippi, there would not have been the chaos that did occur. The flooding of New York was not the first time that had happened – at least once in the 20th century, and 2 or 3 times in the 19th century; with fewer people living in the area, of course, there were fewer people adversely affected, but in at least one of the previous occasions, the flooding was significantly worse than ex-typhoon Sandy. But no: the taking of reasonable precautions is no longer thought necessary – should a disaster happens, why that is just more proof of global warming! As such “proof” is desperately sought, then things are not likely to change, and we will continue to wail and gnash our teeth when the blindingly obvious goes wrong, and the Manns of the world will give gleefully continue with their spurious claims – a situation that will only change when the funding faucet is turned off.
However, as Supertroll has pointed out, I suspect that this was just a diversionary tactic as you realised your arguments about Sweden were ringing hollow; Mr Hodgson then wraps it up very succinctly.
Radical Rodent
Every single one of those “disasters caused by climate change” occurs each and every year, to varying degrees, and have done since Adam was a lad.
Phil Clarke
@PC 10:00am
predictably perhaps I do know some Swedes - and have relatives and sometime colleagues from North to South.
In the group of people that I know the initial reaction to immigrants was positive but as the gender and age demographic of the incomers changed my perception is that an influx of under 30 year old males - particularly into urban areas has really caused a lot of friction since they in general avail themselves of the welfare system, have pitiful employment rates and indulge in much anti-social behavior and are predated by unscrupulous agitators - the tolerant, "get along" society that hosts them has been and still is being attacked. What I have heard about having teenagers in Gothenburg is hair curling. I rather suspect that if a strict gender balance had been maintained with regard to immigrants - the situation might be very different indeed (gender ishoos being a lefty obsession 'n all)
The Swedish immigration stats unequivocally show that double the number of males vs. females are coming in. There are some numbers for "children" which look really rather wonky.
As I mentioned earlier - Sweden has quite an ingrained culture of Political Correctness originally I guess emanating from a sense of what is "proper" behaviour. This has led in the past to what most people accept are some regrettable social programs - it looks like the present handling of immigration is going to have to be put in that category - which is actually a shame. Offering sanctuary to people who fear for their lives in ghastly regimes is actually a noble thing imho - importing too many young males from Islamic countries and not putting them in employment / education .... well - if you can't figure that one out ....
tomo
Ravishing Ratty. Mark's post makes no mention at all of the discussion on Swedish crime figures. With respect to that I still think PC is repeatedly making good points that are not being addressed by his opponents. His latest - that it is rather odd that a US President has the gall to emphasize Swedish crime when crime in his own country is many, many times greater, is devastating.
As I pointed out, as soon as climate change was mentioned he was "dead meat".
Supertroll
Feb 23, 2017 at 11:08 AM | tomo
From my own experience of Sweden, there is a very strong culture of Political Correctness, and a desire to "do the right thing", some of which dates back to what Sweden did do, and didn't do, during WW2.
golf charlie
Not sure that the POTUS making such an observation is “devastating,” Minty. I think his point was that this is occurring in Sweden, of all places – a country known for its boring-ness; a country whose greatest export was ABBA. Not the sort of place, surely, that one would have thought of as having cars set afire regularly, or stones thrown at the police, or no-go areas, where even the police fear to tread, and emergency services need escorts – there is little evidence that any of these situations are common in the USA, outside the occasional release of “snowflake” sentiment. All these changes have occurred since the “enlightened” Swedish government threw open their boarders.
Radical Rodent
Feb 23, 2017 at 11:10 AM | Supertroll
There is nervousness in Sweden about the far right. Phil Clarke would rather tap into that, than the reasons why Trump won, and the UK voted for BREXIT.
Sweden has accommodated many refugees, and some of them are causing big problems. The Centre/Centre Left that dominate in Sweden would rather pretend there are no problems resulting from their generosity.
BREXIT does not mean that the UK has swung to the far right, any more than the US has with Trump, what it does mean is that the progressive left have been rejected by the majority. Progressives integrated into the fabric of Politics and media around the world are fighting back with Fake/Exaggerated News.
golf charlie
Thank you, Mr Clarke, for proving my point. It is a pity the data doesn’t go further back than 1980, though (unless you don't understand to which Adam I refer...).
Radical Rodent
GC: +100!
Radical Rodent
@golf charlie
WW2? - indeed - the duelling ME109s and Spitfires of 1940 had the best bearings.... One of my dad's pals flew Mozzies back and forth loaded with all sorts from Sweden - some of which were dropped off before landing.
The war in Scandinavia doesn't receive much attention - partly imho because it derails quite a few myths - in particular the Finns and their rock / hard place situation.
The Danes successful evacuation of Jews (to Sweden) as an occupied country in 1943 is an example of doing the right thing I think in the Scandinavian context.
The political situation in Sweden during WW2 reflects to some extent the unresolved struggle between "left" and "right" that was pretty much settled in Finland (civil war) I suspect....
You are right about PC-ness in Sweden - it's gotten worse in my time with the left / greens in particular exploiting it beyond any sense of proportion - they regularly explore the outer reaches of farce :-)
tomo
RR I was expressing my view that I consider RC's specific argument to be devastating ( not Trump's statement). My opinion only. I'm really trying to keep out of this because I have no information to add, other than my opinion as to how the debate is progressing. I was only addressing Trump's false news statement about a non-existent terrorist attack last Friday. This appears now to got buried in a squabble about conditions in Sweden as a whole.
Supertroll
Not the sort of place, surely, that one would have thought of as having cars set afire regularly, or stones thrown at the police, or no-go areas, where even the police fear to tread, and emergency services need escorts – there is little evidence that any of these situations are common in the USA
What evidence is there that these things are common in Sweden? The stats for offences against the person and property crime do not support the idea that immigration has increased criminal activity. The numbers for assault and harrassment were lower in 2015, when immigration peaked, than for 2005.
https://www.bra.se/bra/bra-in-english/home/crime-and-statistics.html
Phil Clarke
RR. Not ABBA, but arms exports, especially aircraft, vehicles and guns.
BTW I know of many no-go areas in the USA both city (gang related) and rural (redneck related). Nothing to do with snowflake reporting whatsoever. In one case a rock exposure in New Mexico was rejected by an international committee to be a world reference site for a period of geological time because the safety of researchers could not be guaranteed. I had been shot at while investigating this location (in a National Park!) When I lived in the Bay area there were large parts of Oakland that I wouldn't venture into by day, and many more by night.
Supertroll
Why would you want to?
Otherwise, Trump would be vindicated.