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Discussion > President Trump

Thesis

Antithesis

Even the entertainment value is waning.

Sep 4, 2020 at 10:26 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Hockey Stick Mann and 97% Cook join forces in another error of their own manufacture

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/09/04/friday-funny-mann-and-cook-get-the-vapors/

Sep 4, 2020 at 10:27 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Already yesterday's chip wrapping. Rightly so.

Sep 4, 2020 at 10:34 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

St Greta really needs to sail to Hachijojima to witness no evidence of Global Warming

https://notrickszone.com/2020/09/04/hachijojima-isolated-rural-island-in-pacific-shows-no-warming-in-80-years/
By Kirye
and Pierre Gosselin

"Hachijojima is a volcanic Japanese island some 287 kilometers south of Tokyo, to which it belongs. 7,522 people live on its 63 km2 of area."

"What makes Hachijojima interesting climatically is its rural, non-urban features – in the middle of the ocean – making station siting there less prone to factors that could corrupt the data, such as airports, asphalt, concrete, steel and other heat-sink-acting infrastructure."

" Today we look at data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) going back almost 80 years. Hearing all the claims about a rapidly warming world from the media, many readers would think that there must be warming happening there as well. The data have a surprise in store."

Sep 4, 2020 at 10:56 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Sep 4, 2020 at 10:34 PM Phil Clarke
You are very quick with lying tonight.

Sep 4, 2020 at 10:57 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Golf C.

Notrickszone is posting graphs of data sourced to the Japan Met Agency, produced by @Kiryenet.

- Who or what is @Kiryenet?

- Where can I source the raw data?

- Why does a single island not warming disprove global warming? There could be localised changes, e.g. ocean currents.

- The Berkeley Earth data for the same island shows it warming at 2.58C/century. How do you explain this discrepency between a respected University research project's result and that of a repeatedly-debunked fringe website?


I look forward to a considered response complete silence.

Sep 4, 2020 at 11:29 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

GC (10.16 pm) Poor, poor man; you really do believe.

Sep 5, 2020 at 6:14 AM | Unregistered Commenter!

One might think that if Zuckerberg is throwing £300,000,000 at the 2020 election - news outlets might just provide a link to the full statement - didn't see a single link offered by Google search of that text

Probably because it was edited - Zuck posted 'also worried', the 'also' was excised. I got a few thousand hits exact-searching the actual text.

Sep 5, 2020 at 11:01 AM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

I spent 10 minutes using DDG and Googles's search engine looking for the Zuck statement, portions of which were selectively quoted / summarised by the herds of all stripes - that usually turns up something .... especially if one constrains the search by time, author's name and sections of quoted text.

and voila! - there it is on Facebook - well, duh.... it didn't show up yesterday.

When proclamations like that are put out it's not unusual that a formal press release etiquette is followed and a locked pdf is made available;

What.ever .... the "others" didn't want to be a megaphone for Zuck's posturing or the man is addressing the congregation inside his walled garden ....? - I don't know.

Now I have to fire up a disposable browser to look at it....

Sep 5, 2020 at 1:07 PM | Registered Commentertomo

I see BLM are working hard in the "swing states"


- why are people buying guns 'n ammo?

Sep 5, 2020 at 2:34 PM | Registered Commentertomo

Why can't we have somebody in UK government that treats the baboons of the press corps like this?

Sep 5, 2020 at 3:19 PM | Registered Commentertomo

Critical Race Theory

from this guy

really..... Root 'em out

Sep 6, 2020 at 11:53 AM | Unregistered Commentertomo

Breaking: Burning and Looting is now OK.

Sep 6, 2020 at 4:03 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

hmmm.....

Some faux outrage there in Hew Hampshire - meanwhile ... nearly 570 violent demonstrations--riots--in nearly 220 locations


Not that that makes what he said totally OK - he seems to specialise in provocation :-)

Sep 6, 2020 at 4:33 PM | Registered Commentertomo

James Spillane seems to be a local councillor .... he looks to have been promoted to the national stage while inflammatory statements and libels from dimwit "revolutionary resistance" congresspersons and senators get a free pass / go largely unremarked in the MSM.

Sep 6, 2020 at 5:04 PM | Registered Commentertomo

Move along ... nothing to see here

Sep 6, 2020 at 5:21 PM | Registered Commentertomo

 meanwhile ... nearly 570 violent demonstrations--riots--in nearly 220 locations

Context. Did you read the report? Violence occurred in fewer than 570 protests out of 10,600.

An Overwhelmingly Peaceful Movement

The vast majority of demonstration events associated with the BLM movement are non-violent (see map below). In more than 93% of all demonstrations connected to the movement, demonstrators have not engaged in violence or destructive activity. Peaceful protests are reported in over 2,400 distinct locations around the country. Violent demonstrations, meanwhile, have been limited to fewer than 220 locations — under 10% of the areas that experienced peaceful protests. In many urban areas like Portland, Oregon, for example, which has seen sustained unrest since Floyd’s killing, violent demonstrations are largely confined to specific blocks, rather than dispersed throughout the city

And specifically in Portland …

Prior to the deployment of PACT at the start of July, approximately 8% of demonstrations in Oregon were met with government intervention, and authorities infrequently used force against demonstrators. Since July, however, nearly 28% of demonstrations have been met with intervention and force by government personnel. In Portland specifically, under 24% of demonstrations were met with state force before July. Since July, this figure has risen to 40% of all demonstrations. Although federal authorities were purportedly deployed to keep the peace, the move appears to have re-escalated tensions. Prior to the deployment, over 83% of demonstrations in Oregon were non-violent. Post-deployment, the percentage of violent demonstrations has risen from under 17% to over 42%, suggesting that the federal response has only aggravated unrest. In Portland, violent demonstrations rose from 53% to nearly 62% of all events after federal agents arrived on the scene.

Violence is never acceptable, but protests are always going to attract some fringe nutters. However 95% peaceful does not sound like the carnage the Trumpians want to portray.

Sep 6, 2020 at 6:25 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Mostly peaceful ...

I sorta wonder what the qualifying criteria for a "protest" is.... around here (UK) Gannet Inc bigged up a dozen teenagers and some veteran lefties moving from town to town as some kind of BLM wave as they did across the UK ....

Some of the references quoted in the paper itself aren't exactly known for politically objective reporting (CNN, Guardian(!) and WaPo - a cherry pick )

The paper is not I feel comparing like with like.

I've read the FAQ and methodology supporting docs and I'm still unclear as to what qualifies as a protest....

As to the assertions about Portland ... as a person who's seen some serious civil disturbances first hand - I call bullshit. AntiFa are out to provoke and the escalation is on them - I'd add - I'm well aware that police and militias will attack peaceful demonstrators - seen it repeatedly.

Sep 6, 2020 at 7:10 PM | Registered Commentertomo

BLM are self declared revolutionary Marxists, AntiFa - a deranged rabble - behind them both I suspect are serious players with I think quite deep pockets - not self funding enthusiastic amateurs.

Sep 6, 2020 at 7:30 PM | Registered Commentertomo

You liked the number until I provided the context ……

See the FAQ and linked Codebook for definitions. Meticulous and consistent in my view.

And of course, not all the violence that occurs at a protest is down to a bona fide protester.

Sep 6, 2020 at 8:17 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

I still "like" the number.

It rather looks like you think that the 570 incidents are somehow acceptable if you compare them to 10,000 events.

I looked at the FAQ - missed the "codebook" - looking again.

Sep 6, 2020 at 9:21 PM | Registered Commentertomo

I'd concur that considerable effort has gone into recording and categorising events.

570 incidents at 220 locations means repeated (2.5x) incidents at the same locations - that simply isn't consistent with "mostly peaceful" and indicates that different types of event are occuring - further categorisation needs to happen.

The codebook reminds me of The World Factbook - I daresay Langley folk are paying customers. ACLED have an impressive client portfolio.

ACLED cookbook

Sep 6, 2020 at 9:48 PM | Registered Commentertomo

570 incidents at 220 locations means repeated (2.5x) incidents at the same locations.

Please read the actual methods.

.Three different protests happened in my city yesterday; why do I only see one protest event in the data?

ACLED is an event-based dataset, and therefore only records demonstration events. Events are disaggregated by date (when it happened); actors (who it involved); location (where it happened); and event type (what happened). In practical terms, this means that only events taking place on different days, involving different types of violence, with different types of actors, or in disparate locations are considered separate events. Events that share the same date, actors, a proximate location, and event type will be aggregated when it cannot be clearly demonstrated that the events were discrete and independent. The number of demonstrations is reliant largely on reporting and the terminology used in doing so. For example, five separate demonstrations happening in Atlanta around a single topic within a few blocks of each other may be reported in a newspaper as “demonstrations happened in Atlanta” or “five demonstrations happened in Atlanta.” Both are ‘correct’ in their terminology, but if they are coded differently as a result (1 vs. 5), this would introduce a bias. ACLED codes an event based on an engagement in a specific location, such as at a city level (e.g. Atlanta) on a specific day in order to avoid such biases. The number of ‘demonstration events’ recorded by ACLED may differ from the number of ‘demonstrations’ recorded via other methodologies by other datasets.

Whether you look at the number of events, or the locations in which they occurred, comfortably over 90% were non-violent.

Sep 6, 2020 at 11:02 PM | Unregistered CommenterPhil Clarke

Sep 6, 2020 at 11:02 PM Phil Clarke
Democrat lies and corruption don’t need to be violent to put people in jeopardy or jail

https://youtu.be/9ytK2BjoIR0

Climate Science lies and corruption are worse.

Sep 6, 2020 at 11:12 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

In practical terms, this means that only events taking place on

different days
involving different types of violence
different types of actors
disparate locations

- are considered separate events.

Where's the problem with that?

Where a location has a repeat violent incidents while 90%+ don't have them.... that marks them out as outliers that have to be dealt with.

The reporting of BLM protests is utterly farcical - a single utterly no-mark UK local rag with an audited 6200 circulation run by Gannet Inc in the UK gives 60 Google hits for "BLM protest" and 11500 for BLM protest without the quotes.

There are two strands to BLM - direct action and demonstration and the first isn't a subset of the second - they are different types of event.

Sep 6, 2020 at 11:38 PM | Registered Commentertomo