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Discussion > Covid 19 stuff

New York, New York.

And Theres New Jersey

Apr 18, 2020 at 2:31 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe

And The Theres Phys New Jersey

Apr 18, 2020 at 2:41 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe

n

Apr 18, 2020 at 2:43 AM | Unregistered Commenterclipe

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.
- Warren Buffet.

Apr 17, 2020 at 11:37 PM Phil Clarke"

Drain the swamp.

Apr 18, 2020 at 5:41 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Where's the BBC on the attacks on Africans in China that have accelerated in recent weeks?

Diplomats from African states are now involved - but afaics even BBC Pidgin is silent on the matter.

None so blind as those who will not see....

Apr 18, 2020 at 8:15 AM | Registered Commentertomo

I deplore the politicisation of Covid-19, and I am on the Phil Clarke regarding Trump, since I regard Trump as an unpleasant and narcissistic half-wit. But, with the epicentre of Covid-19 in the US being in Democrat-controlled New York, why are the Covid-19 numbers in New York Trump's fault, rather than the fault of the Democrats?

Probably the truth is that New York city (as opposed to the state) sees people living cheek-by-jowl and travelling extensively on tightly-packed public transport - much the reason why London has been the epicentre in the UK. I repeat - the politicisation of this crisis is deeply distasteful.

Apr 18, 2020 at 8:37 AM | Unregistered CommenterMark Hodgson

Another tale from America about coronavirus

Coronavirus at Smithfield pork plant: The untold story of America's biggest outbreak

Apr 18, 2020 at 8:47 AM | Registered Commentertomo

Tucker Carlson hair on fire

A summary of some of the antics from Chinese Communists and their tame poodles and worse in the USA....

Apr 18, 2020 at 9:20 AM | Registered Commentertomo

"I deplore the politicisation of Covid-19, and I am on the Phil Clarke regarding Trump, since I regard Trump as an unpleasant and narcissistic half-wit. But, with the epicentre of Covid-19 in the US being in Democrat-controlled New York, why are the Covid-19 numbers in New York Trump's fault, rather than the fault of the Democrats?
Apr 18, 2020 at 8:37 AM Mark Hodgson"

Because anything bad that happens must be blamed on Trump and Global Warming. Anything Trump does or suggests must be opposed by the unpleasant arrogant full-twits.

Trump is pushing to get people back to work asap, as are some other EU Countries. Trump is therefore portrayed as "reckless", whereas those in the EU are "progressive".

The overcrowded Subway/Underground train services shared by millions every day in London and New York are designed for the rapid transmission and distribution of viruses without regard to wealth, social class or ethnicity. I would guess that New York and London also have the biggest Immune Herds as a result, but without testing, nobody knows.

Apr 18, 2020 at 11:41 AM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

I haven't watched the video, the summary is by Guido Fawkes

https://order-order.com/2020/04/18/must-watch-swedish-epidemiologist-lays-swedens-thinking-video/

"This interview by Freddie Sayers of Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, who is an advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Sweden’s strategy), is worth 35 minutes of your lockdown viewing time. He lays out Sweden’s thinking"

"The flattening of the curve we are seeing now is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
UK policy on lockdown and in other European countries is not evidence-based
The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished, non-peer-reviewed paper have so much policy impact
Is dismissive of the 510,000 figure that was predicted if mitigation measures were not implemented
The Imperial College paper was much too pessimistic and did not factor in the now much increased ICU capacity
Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway, taking no account of real world specifics
The results will eventually be similar for all countries
Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 will in all likelihood turn out to be in the region of 0.1%
At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will likely be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available
His Swedish blunt logic is not an eccentricity, he was the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO. Guido increasingly thinks we need to move towards “climbing down the rungs” of lockdown. This eminent epidemiologist makes a convincing case that this 3 week extension should be the last unless and until there is a second wave…"

Apr 18, 2020 at 12:28 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie

Zut!


An absolute MUST WATCH for this thread.

Apr 18, 2020 at 7:11 PM | Registered Commentertomo

New cases are still running at 5,300-5,600/day
with a 17% rate of conversion to deaths after 7 days

OK not rising
but it will rise a simplistic unlocking of lockdown

So where are the new cases coming from ?

I'm guessing not normal middle class people
is it other communties ?
bad hospitals ?

Apr 19, 2020 at 7:47 AM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Where are the new cases coming from ?

Given what we know about the tactics successfully deployed by Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore - some element of contact tracking or cluster mapping is pivotal in snubbing out outbreaks.

What is less than reassuring it the apparent serial ineptness of our public officials in collecting and analysing the spread of infections. I have tried trivially to look at the matter but the morass of PR and lack of disclosure is truly daunting. I frankly doubt that proper records are being kept. The truncation of FoI citing "coronavirus" is not a good sign....

Apr 19, 2020 at 12:08 PM | Registered Commentertomo

eeesh....

talk about Genies and jars....

Nature a bit wobbly on this ....

Apr 20, 2020 at 7:10 PM | Registered Commentertomo

Posted by Pcar on timworstall.com

"Coronacrisis shows that European Union is SICK! German MEP Beck warns European Parliament
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGlqNx4QCbo

Brilliant……we need more guys like this Gunnar Beck. But, nobody is listening, look at all those empty seats, MEPs at home receiving nice wages

Meanwhile: Here we are in the UK locked down getting harassed from police if you sit on a park bench in the sun, being told to get back in your house when sitting in the garden yet they fly in hundreds of of European workers for farm work? No tests or checks either! WTF is going on? British workers will do farm work after all many are sitting at home penniless"

Apr 21, 2020 at 8:13 AM | Unregistered CommenterCharly

How to get PPE in the UK:

https://www.drapersonline.com/business-operations/i-had-to-bypass-nhs-to-make-ppe-for-hospitals/7040167.article

"However, all along it has been our greatest wish to get back to work and support the NHS. How difficult could it be to help in a meaningful way and get PPE to where it was needed? The answer is much more difficult than we ever imagined. For weeks, our efforts have been frustrated by the slow, centralised procurement system.

My first conversation about supplying the NHS was on 16 March. Since then, I have been contacted by NHS Supply Chain Coordination, Deloitte, the Crown Commercial Service [which provides commercial services to the public sector] and the government – but frustratingly, none of these discussion have amounted to anything.

It became apparent to me that the centralised NHS governance is simply not agile enough to react effectively in a crisis. So, while becoming more and more frustrated, we took the decision to sidestep the bureaucracy, bypass the central system and began a dialogue with our local hospitals."

Apr 21, 2020 at 9:07 AM | Unregistered CommenterCharly

Russiagate stuff:

https://www.theepochtimes.com/house-gop-probes-cias-role-in-2016-trump-russia-investigation-rep-nunes-says_3318372.html

"“My own view is that the evidence shows that we’re not dealing with just mistakes or sloppines,” he said. “There was something far more troubling here. And we’re going to get to the bottom of it. And if people broke that law and we can establish that with the evidence, they will be prosecuted.”

Barr said that the FBI had no basis for starting the Russia probe and that President Trump has had “every right to be frustrated” about it.

“I think what happened to him has been one of the greatest travesties in American history. Without any basis, they started this investigation of his campaign. And even more concerning, actually, is what happened after the campaign, a whole pattern of events while he was president … to sabotage the presidency. … or at least had the effect of sabotaging the presidency,” he said."

https://www.theepochtimes.com/senators-ask-fbi-director-to-provide-all-records-on-crossfire-hurricane_3315802.html

"Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz released a report (pdf) on Dec. 9 that found 17 “significant inaccuracies and omissions” in the application and renewals for the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant that the FBI used to spy on Trump campaign adviser Carter Page."

“We are deeply troubled by the Crossfire Hurricane team’s awareness of and apparent indifference to Russian disinformation, as well as by the grossly inaccurate statements by the FBI official in charge of the investigation and its supervisory intelligence analyst,” the senators wrote."

Apr 21, 2020 at 9:41 AM | Unregistered CommenterCharly

Wrong thread

Apr 21, 2020 at 9:42 AM | Unregistered CommenterCharly

On tomo's "Zut!" item:

http://thejewishvoice.com/2020/04/2008-nobel-prize-for-medicine-winning-dr-luc-montagnier-says-covid-19-was-manipulated-for-hiv-research/

and

https://www.europeanscientist.com/en/big-data/no-sars-cov-2-does-not-contain-hiv-genetic-code/

Apr 21, 2020 at 11:00 AM | Unregistered Commenternot banned yet

not banned yet

thanks for that, especially the europeanscientist.com piece. Phillipe Lacoude :

Philippe Lacoude, Ph.D., is a consultant in Washington, DC. He holds advanced degrees in applied mathematics, statistics and economics from the University of Paris Dauphine. He specializes in the implementation of economic and financial models. He is the author of “Le déficit budgétaire français”, “Action ou taxation: Le défi fiscal français”, and “What Social Security Will Pay: Rates of Return by Congressional District”.

-

It'd be interesting to see a discussion between him and Montagnier. There are aspects to this business that I haven't touched on - but one thing is abundantly clear - it makes a can of worms look nice and simple = everybody knows everybody else - work connections criss-cross and outside of the big names (and their antics) there's a lot of sorcerer's apprentices trying to make a name for themselves.

The BLAST tool is very interesting - I have used superficially similar tools in wildly different signal processing applications. I wonder if it's being run against archived sequences to see if there are any likely relatives hiding in the data - a bit surprised that a big data proponent like Lacoude hasn't done that already - but hey - the ChiComms have likely had the data wrecking balls swinging for 3+ months....

Apr 21, 2020 at 11:45 AM | Registered Commentertomo

Sky's Ed Conway is trying to illustrate how unusual the Covid9 death spike is
So he's put up a mouse-over graph showing peak death weeks since 1970
there have been 2 odd weeks where deaths got near to 20K and that is without scaling for the lower population then

Apr 21, 2020 at 12:34 PM | Registered Commenterstewgreen

Sadiq Khan's execrable piece on Wuhan coronavirus in The Guardian

Apr 21, 2020 at 1:01 PM | Registered Commentertomo

tomo - I agree a debate/discussion between them would helpful - some of the comments at europeanscientist suggest that Lacoude is missing critical points. Not my subject by a long way, so I'm only passing it on.

stewgreen - Oxford Uni's CEBM published this European view of the covid deaths:

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-tracking-european-mortality/

Apr 21, 2020 at 4:47 PM | Unregistered Commenternot banned yet

Open question:

Does anybody have a view on the apparent lack of impact of covid-19 on the Greek refuge camps?

I've seen a couple of reports of cases and several early reports of fears over the camps' vulnerability to viral spread yet (thankfully) I've not seen anything showing that the early fears are being realised.

Does anybody have any reliable data on the covid situation in the camps? Apologies if this comes up with a quick Google - if so I'm using the wrong terms!

Apr 21, 2020 at 5:35 PM | Unregistered Commenternot banned yet

"Does anybody have any reliable data on the covid situation in the camps? Apologies if this comes up with a quick Google - if so I'm using the wrong terms!

Apr 21, 2020 at 5:35 PM not banned yet"

There is a worldwide shortage of reliable data concerning Coronavirus. The sources most likely to be releasing data are the aid agencies and charities if they still have operational staff.

Apr 21, 2020 at 6:09 PM | Unregistered Commentergolf charlie